Week 16 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Will Giants air it out vs. generous Vikings defense?

Let’s be honest about sleeper picks, they often make more sense in the middle of a fantasy season. You’re navigating bye weeks, you have deeper roster needs. Hopefully, most of your fantasy teams rolled into the playoffs, and you’re set with a lineup that essentially plays itself.

Nonetheless, we keep up our pursuit. Perhaps these sleeper calls will make more sense as DFS options, or encourage you to make a daily fantasy play. In deeper leagues, they might be fantasy starters, but I want to be mindful of how the shape of the game is different at this time of year.

There’s no right and wrong way to digest this piece (or ignore this piece). It’s all up to you. Maybe it’s DFS advice, maybe it’s a prop play, or maybe it’s something to consider as you set a playoff lineup.

Whatever the case, we’re onto Week 16.

Giants' passing game at Minnesota

Minnesota is cruising to the NFC North title, but it’s been no thanks to the pass defense. The Vikings have allowed the most passing yards in the NFC, and they’re handing out 7.9 YPA. Seven different quarterbacks have gone for 300-plus against the Purple, and while a few stars are on that list (Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray), that group also includes Jared Goff, Mike White, Mac Jones and Teddy Bridgewater.

Minnesota citizens are among the friendliest in America. Apparently, the Vikings secondary picks up on that ethos.

Daniel Jones has a few things working for him this week — a bad defense to attack, an indoor game safe from the elements and his rushing backboard (a sneaky 583 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns). Part of it is survivor bias — merely staying healthy — but Jones sits as the QB11 entering this week. He’s done a masterful job piloting the Giants into the playoff hunt.

It’s not as easy to dial up a New York receiver — no one in this group has more than two touchdowns. But Darius Slayton is averaging a robust 10.2 yards per target, and 15.8 yards per catch. He’ll get a few deep looks against this secondary. It only takes one long connection to make your weekend.

WR Russell Gage at Arizona

The key for Gage is Julio Jones’ availability — if Jones can go, I won’t go near Gage on the weekend. But Gage does have three touchdowns in the last two games, and he posted a tasty 8-59-2 line last week, on 12 targets. It’s not easy to get into Tom Brady’s Circle of Trust, but Gage has done so.

Arizona’s defense is below average in most areas, including a 20th rank in DVOA against the pass. And at least the Tampa Bay at Arizona game is weather-proof, one of the save havens for Week 16. This call isn’t for the 8-teamer and 10-teamer leagues; but if you’re digging deep, Gage might make sense. Heck, at least add him to the roster, so your opponents can’t do it.

One other possible sleeper angle to consider in this game — the Cardinals are historically awful when it comes to tight end coverage. The Buccaneers unfortunately are using multiple tight ends these days, but Cade Otton is younger and more explosive than Cameron Brate. If I had to speculate on one of the Tampa Bay tight ends to make a splashy play, I'd put my chip on Otton.

QB Brock Purdy vs. Washington

The Commanders are stout against the run (fourth in DVOA) but can be had through the air (15th DVOA). And Purdy has been surprisingly effective since taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo. Over his three-game sample (and remember, he only started two of those games), he’s third in passer rating, seventh in completion percentage and QB9 in fantasy scoring.

It’s a shame Purdy won’t have Deebo Samuel, but the Niners are not lacking for playmakers. Christian McCaffrey is pass-catching royalty, George Kittle spread his wings last week and Brandon Aiyuk is a plus receiver.

Purdy was an unknown before the season, on nobody’s radar. That doesn’t matter now. He’s someone you can proactively start in Week 16.