Week 15 NFL DFS: Packers headline value picks to build your lineup
By Jordan Vanek
The basis for being successful in any daily fantasy sports contest, whether cash games or large-field GPPs, is finding value to build around. Using 4for4’s Yahoo DFS Value Report, we can uncover some of the best values at each position for the Week 15 slate.
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins $28
Coming off the bye week, the Dolphins will be facing the Jets, who, outside of Taysom Hill last weekend, have allowed at least two passing touchdowns in every game. The last time they matched up, Tagovailoa had 8.2 yards per attempt — the second-highest mark in Tagovailoa’s career — and he threw for two touchdowns. Since returning from injury, Tagovailoa has yet to attempt under 30 passes, and the Jets pass defense gives up the second-most yards per attempt and the highest completion percentage in the NFL.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers $32
The Ravens run a Cover 0 or Cover 1 on 33% of their passing attempts, and Rodgers averages 10.44 yards per attempt against these schemes. Rodgers has had five games this season where he has been given a Cover 0 or 1 look more than 10 times, including each of the last three weeks. Rodgers has thrown for over 300 yards and has had four touchdowns in two of those three games.
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Running Backs
D’Onta Foreman, Titans $18
The Steelers run defense is giving up 4.97 yards per carry, which ranks last in the NFL In their last four games, and they have allowed an average of 30.4 fantasy points to the lead running back. In Derrick Henry’s absence, the Titans have gone to a running back by committee approach, but Foreman has 19 and 13 carries in their last two games and has averaged 4.9 yards per carry. Since 2007, the Steelers have only allowed seven running backs to score over 30 half-PPR points, but have allowed three such games in the last four weeks.
Sony Michel, Rams $19
Without Darrell Henderson, Michel has proven to be the bellcow running back, getting at least 20 carries in each of his starts and over 70 rushing yards in each of the last two games. In 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, the Seahawks rank 31st against running backs, and the Rams have run for at least 100 total yards in each of their last four matchups versus the Seahawks.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams, Packers $32
Adams has had 100 yards receiving in each of the last three games and has scored twice in two of them. The Ravens lost Marcus Peters before the season and lost Marlon Humphrey to injury just two weeks ago. Since Week 11, they have allowed four different wide receivers to gain 90 or more yards, and gave up 200 yards to Ja’Marr Chase earlier in the season.
Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals $29
The Broncos play a Cover 1 at the highest rate in the NFL, and against this coverage, Chase is second in the NFL in yards and tied for the lead with four touchdowns. Sterling Shepard, Henry Ruggs, Marquise Brown, Diontae Johnson, and Devonta Smith have 30+ yard receiving touchdowns against the Broncos.
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Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee, Rams $16
Without some of the key players out for the Rams this week, Higbee will be looking at an uptick in targets against a team that has given up five touchdowns to tight ends in the last four weeks. The Seahawks have allowed two multiple touchdown games to tight ends and on just two targets in their first matchup, Higbee was able to find the end zone.
Mike Gesicki, Dolphins $19
There have only been 18 games where a tight end had over 100 yards receiving this year and the Jets are one of five teams to allow two such games. They are the only team that didn’t have one of these games go to George Kittle, Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews. Without Jaylen Waddle, there will be an increase in workload for Gesicki.
Defenses
Jaguars, $12
With a 39.5-point over/under as a 4-point favorite against the Texans, the Jaguars make for a great defense at a low salary. The Jaguars have a pressure percentage of 41.8% and in every start, Davis Mills has been sacked at least twice.
Titans, $14
The Titans and Steelers is among the lowest over/under totals of the week (42.5) with Tennessee being a one-point favorite. Bud Dupree is returning to the lineup on a team that is 12th in the NFL in sack rate and facing a Steelers team that has given up three or more sacks in four of the last five games.
