The Vikings might be too predictable on defense
The Vikings' defense is better than it was last year. Then again, it couldn't have been much worse.
There is cause for concern, however, as the Vikings are perhaps becoming a little too predictable on the defensive side of the ball. Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield cracked the code in Week 1. On Sunday against the Chargers, the Vikings opted for heavy pressure — and thy stuck with it, even though it wasn't really working.
"It was actually a lot of pressure," Chargers receiver Keenan Allen told PFT by phone after the Chargers' 28-24 win. "This year, they've been doing a lot of pressures. They pressure I want to say over 50 percent of the time and, you know, they kept that up today, which means it's going to be one-on-one out there. Their guys are going to be on islands and we were able to get the ball out quick with some screens and quick-game stuff and you know take advantage of it."
Allen added that the Vikings didn't change things up very much as the game went on.
The numbers back that up. According to Next Gen Stats, the Vikings blitzed Herbert on 41 of his 50 dropbacks, the second highest percentage (82 percent) since Next Gen Stats debuted. (The highest percentage for one game happened just last Thursday night, when the Giants blitzed the 49ers on 33 of 39 dropbacks.)
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert averaged 2.28 seconds to make a throw, and he had a 16.0-percent completion percentage above expected.
Surely, the Vikings realized that Herbert wasn't phased by the blitzing. Why stick with heavy blitzing if it's not working?
As the game goes on and as the approach remains the same, the offense is only going to be more adept at cracking the code. That's why the code needs to change at some point. Or it needs to never become predictable.
For the Vikings, it's entirely possible that the defense is already a little too predictable. And that's one of the reasons why the Vikings are 0-3.
