USU and BYU head to league tourneys with Big Dance tickets, while other Utah teams still have work to do

Utah State and BYU are NCAA Tournament locks regardless of what happens in league tournaments this week in Kansas City and Las Vegas.

That’s a relief.

That’s a reward for their season of work.

It’s also competitively challenging this week at league tournaments, where they’ll face lower-seeded teams fighting to grab a spot.

Utah (18-13, 9-11) in the Pac-12, on the other hand, will almost certainly need to win the Pac-12 tournament in Las Vegas to earn the league’s automatic bid and is more likely to play in the NIT. Utah ranks 51st in KenPom and is No. 52 in NET.

Weber State (20-11, 11-7) has a chance to make the tournament if the Wildcats win the Big Sky tournament in Boise. As the No. 4 seed, the Wildcats play No. 5 Montana State Monday night. Both received a boost when No. 1 seed Eastern Washington lost to No. 10 Sacramento State on Sunday, 74-69.

No. 5 seed Utah Valley has a solid chance to advance in the WAC tournament in Las Vegas and play No. 8 Cal Baptist in Wednesday’s first round at the Orleans Arena. The Wolverines finished the regular season 16-15 overall and 11-9 in the WAC, good for fourth place. UVU swept Cal Baptist in league play.

The No. 6 seed Utes play No. 11 Arizona State on Wednesday evening. ASU swept Utah 82-70 and 85-77 during the regular season. The winner plays No. 3 Colorado Thursday. A huge factor for the Utes is the health of superstar Branden Carlson, who appeared to suffer an elbow injury in a one-point loss at Oregon over the weekend.

USU is going into a buzzsaw week. BYU is playing a breakfast/brunch game Wednesday in the best conference in America.

The MWC ordeals should be made-for-TV drama.

The Aggies (26-5, 14-4) have had a remarkable season under first-year coach Danny Sprinkle, a candidate for national coach of the year. USU won an outright MWC title for the first time in program history, which was no small feat in a league loaded at the top with outstanding teams in San Diego State, Nevada, Colorado State and Boise State — all expected to make the Big Dance.

“This team, I don’t know how to describe them. I really don’t. What they’ve done — this will never be done in Division I basketball again, where literally, you don’t return a point or assist all that, and to win a Mountain West championship. Not at this level, not at the Power Six level,” Sprinkle said after defeating New Mexico for sole possession of first place and the No. 1 seed.

Although San Diego State (22-9, 11-7) is ranked higher in polls and is favored by KenPom to win the MWC Tournament this week, the Aztecs are the No. 5 seed in the league tournament and face No. 4 seed UNLV in what will essentially be a home game.

KenPom, a computer-based metric used by the NCAA to seed brackets, predicts San Diego State will win the MWC affair, but gives SDSU only a 21% chance to win the MWC tournament. That’s how much parity there is in that league this season.

Aggie fans were vocal on social media over the weekend when USU defeated New Mexico but dropped three spots in KenPom’s rankings to No. 44 as New Mexico climbed two spots to No. 33.

On 1280 The Zone radio Monday morning, Ken Pomeroy, owner of the KenPom ranking system, explained that his algorithm is a prediction-based ranking system that is built to predict outcomes. Because USU won but underperformed in offensive and defensive efficiency, his computer ranking adjusted the Aggies accordingly.

KenPom has the Aggies ranked No. 44, while the NCAA’s NET rankings has them No. 33. Pomeroy expects USU to earn at least a No. 6 seed and could possibly move up to a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

BYU, on the other hand, is ranked No. 16 by KenPom and the NET has the Cougars at No. 12. While the Aggies have won their last five, BYU has won four of their last six and are seeded No. 5 in the Big 12 ahead of preseason favorite Kansas at No. 6. BYU finished eight places higher than the preseason coaches poll, which had them at No. 13.

This will be an interesting week for BYU, one of the most entertaining squads in recent Cougar history. Because BYU played in the toughest league in the country, it just may be one of the best seasons the Cougars have had in some time.

BYU is notorious for struggling in conference tournaments and has not won one since Steve Cleveland’s Mekeli Wesley-led team won the MWC in 2001, some 23 years ago. BYU could never get over the hump in the WCC because of Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s.

On the other hand, because of BYU’s unique offense, nothing like it in the Big 12, the Cougars could get hot and be a tough team to prepare for in a short week. But the Cougars must defeat the winner of UCF-Oklahoma State Wednesday morning at 10:30 a.m. to test that theory.

A huge factor in BYU’s favor in a week like this is team depth. BYU has nine players who have averaged close to double figures this season, led by Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year Jaxson Robinson, center Fouss Traore and the most efficient 3-point shooter on the team, sophomore Richie Saunders.

Utah needs to make a run this week to get in the NCAA. Utah is not a bubble team but is listed in ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s bracket watch outside those just looking in: TCU, Mississippi State and Virginia. The Utes need a healthy Carlson big time.