Using Expected TDs to Predict Who Could Score More in 2023

Are Cowboys committing to the run more in 2023?

After some interesting comments from Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy, the Rotoworld Football Show crew talk about whether fantasy managers need to worry about Dallas running the ball more in 2023.

Last week I went down a football rabbit hole of expected touchdowns from the 2022 season. Over the last few years, expected touchdowns have proven to be one of the more reliable stats when predicting touchdowns year over year, as Scott Barrett pointed out at FantasyPoints.com.

Expected touchdowns helped me pinpoint a handful of running backs I like to score at an increased rate in 2023; now it's time to move on to receivers and tight ends.

For anybody interested in checking out the first article of this two-part series, you can do so by clicking the link below.

Using Expected Touchdowns to Predict RBs Who Could Score More in 2023

Now, let's get into these pass-catchers.

NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, Pro-Football-Reference.com, and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson, PIT

2022 Totals

Receiving TDs: 0
Receiving X-TDs: 6.6
X-TDs Per 17 Games: 6.6

Let's go ahead and get this one out of the way now. Last season, Diontae Johnson scored as many touchdowns as his fantasy managers, who watched him from their couches every week. The fifth-year receiver posted a giant goose egg in the touchdown department, despite a receiving line that included 86 receptions for 882 yards. Johnson ranked dead last in fantasy points over expected last season with -60.4 but was the WR9 in expected fantasy points (241.1). He was one of just two receivers in the previous five years to see 100-plus targets but fail to score a touchdown.

To put it simply, Johnson's expected fantasy points coupled with 6.6 X-TDs are enough to suggest a bounce back in 2023 is all but a lock.

Regarding volume, Johnson should rank among the league's most heavily-targeted receivers, even if George Pickens continues to emerge. His 318 targets are good for fourth-most among receivers over the last two years, while his 28 percent target share ranks sixth.

Johnson's return to the end zone will be directly impacted by second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett, who managed just seven touchdown passes in 13 games. By all accounts, Pickett should take a nice step forward in 2023, but he doesn't need to set the league ablaze for Johnson to find success. Pickett completed just 63 percent of his passes last year (20th) and had a league-worst 1.8 percent touchdown rate. Any regression toward the top-15 in each of these categories should benefit Johnson, who remains the WR1 in the offense.

In the past, drafters were already hesitant to select Johnson due to his drops. His 17 drops since 2021 are tied for second-most with Justin Jefferson and Jaylen Waddle, who drafters curiously aren't fading. Now, with a reputation as a player who can't score touchdowns, drafters have faded him into oblivion. Currently going as a mid-WR3 in PPR leagues, Johnson looks like a prime candidate to smash his current price if the touchdowns match the target volume.

D.K. Metcalf, SEA

2022 Totals

Receiving TDs: 6
Receiving X-TDs: 10.5
X-TDs Per 17 Games: 10.5

Since entering the league in 2019, D.K. Metcalf has been a perennial candidate for double-digit touchdown seasons. He's totaled 35 touchdowns in four seasons and scored 10-plus touchdowns in 2020 and 2021.

Last year's six-touchdown effort fell well below his 10.5 X-TD total, especially when you consider he led all receivers with 22 end-zone targets. Last season marked the second time Metcalf has led the league in end-zone targets. His 18 end zone targets as a rookie were tops in the league in 2019, and he's never finished with fewer than 14 end zone targets. Below is a list of end zone target leaders per PFF since Metcalf entered the league.

Credit to Pete Carroll for knowing it's good to target his 6-foot-4, 235-pound receiver in the most valuable area of the field.

Metcalf only has one top-12 fantasy finish to his name but is eighth in expected fantasy points (849.4) and sixth in total air yards since entering the league. Rookie wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba stands to threaten some of Metcalf's target share this season, but his consistent usage in the end zone should keep his touchdown floor relatively high.

Garrett Wilson, NYJ

2022 Totals

Receiving TDs: 4
Receiving X-TDs: 7.5
X-TDs Per 17 Games: 7.5

Last year's Offensive Rookie of the Year enters 2023 with high expectations. Garrett Wilson totaled 83 receptions for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns while catching passes from Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White, and Chris Streveler. Only Zach Wilson remains with the team among those quarterbacks, but he's been relegated from QB1 to backup with Aaron Rodgers now in town.

Rodgers' arrival to New York brings hope for the Jets and their offensive outlook in 2023.

For starters, the Jets are expected to see a few more red zone opportunities than the 46 they saw last season (ranked 26th) under Rodgers. Additionally, their 43.7 percent red zone touchdown rank, which ranked second-worst in the league behind only the Patriots, is also expected to take a significant step forward.

As Rodgers' top receiver, Wilson should be in a prime position for a breakout campaign in 2023. The Jets brought in a handful of receivers this offseason (Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Mecole Hardman), but Wilson is the lone target hog in the room. Last season, Wilson absorbed a 25 percent target share and was 17th among qualified receivers (min. 50 targets) in targets per game (8.7).

Wilson saw 11 end zone targets last season and was 15th in red zone targets (29) despite playing on a team in the bottom 10 in red zone visits. He was one of only two receivers (Drake London, Falcons) with seven or more X-TDs from last season who also played in an offense that ranked in the bottom 10 in total yards. We can't overlook the fact that Lazard also saw 11 end-zone targets with the Packers last season, but Wilson should see plenty of scoring opportunities of his own to offset whatever targets Lazard draws.

I keep asking myself this: If Wilson can see 7.5 X-TDs in a dismal Jets offense, what is his ceiling with this 2023 team? It feels high. I'll treat it as such.

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee, LAR

2022 Totals

Receiving TDs: 3
Receiving X-TDs: 6.2
X-TDs Per 17 Games: 6.2

Four tight ends saw 100-plus targets in 2022.

Of those four, only one is going outside the first four rounds of fantasy drafts.

In fairness, Higbee isn't in the same talent stratosphere as Kelce, Andrews, and Hockenson, making the significant difference in ADP easy to justify. Higbee also isn't on an ascending offense. The Rams ranked 27th in points per game last season (18.1) and had an offensive line that ranked among the worst in the league.

With that being said, he's also on a roster that's incredibly thin at receiver after Cooper Kupp, and the defense projects to be among the worst in the league. I recently mentioned Higbee in an article about arbitrage players who could help you win your fantasy leagues in 2023 for these very reasons.

While Kupp is a lock to lead the team in targets, there's a chance Higbee ends the season as the second-most targeted player. Since Matthew Stafford came to town in 2021, Higbee's 188 targets trail only Kupp (290) and is well ahead of Van Jefferson's 155 targets. Last season, Higbee tied for 10th among tight ends with six end zone targets, while his 19 red zone targets were good for ninth-most.

As it stands right now, the Rams have a projected win total of 6.5 on Bet MGM. Assuming they land within a game or two of this total, a lot of negative game scripts will be in store for the offense, which will call for an uptick in passing. While Higbee isn't an elite option at the position, his target volume in negative game scripts could make him an attractive late-round sleeper. With that comes the opportunity for more scores.

Pat Freiermuth, PIT

2022 Totals

Receiving TDs: 2
Receiving X-TDs: 4.6
X-TDs Per 17 Games: 4.8

It'd be weird to have just one Steeler on this list when we consider, again, the fact that their starting quarterbacks combined for 12 touchdown passes all of last season.

In his second season in the league, Pat Freiermuth posted career-highs in receptions (63) and receiving yards (732) but managed just two touchdowns. Freiermuth scored seven touchdowns as a rookie, with four of his scores coming on targets in the end zone.

Freiermuth has nine total touchdowns and only 10 end zone targets for his career. It's a rather impressive touchdown total when you consider the limited end-zone targets, but Freiermuth has also totaled 21 red-zone targets in each of his first two seasons, which keeps his touchdown upside high. His 42 red zone targets since 2021 tie for sixth-most amongst all tight ends but are only five less than Dalton Schultz, who ranks third with 47 red zone targets. Mark Andrews (70) and Travis Kelce (67) sit alone at the top.

With a seven-touchdown season already on his resumé, it's not improbable to think Freiermuth could give us similar totals this season. The Steelers are expected to improve in Kenny Pickett's second season, which should result in more red zone visits and passing touchdowns. Much like Diontae Johnson, I also expect Freiermuth to see a spike in touchdowns based on last year's X-TD totals and the promises of a better offense in 2023.