How USC’s season outlook has changed after unimpressive 2023 opener
Last week on our regular YouTube show with Mark Rogers at The Voice of College Football, we talked about USC having a three-game “mini-season” before its main nine-game season.
We explained:
“USC gets an off week on Saturday, September 16. The three games preceding Sept. 16 have a preseason-like feel for the Trojans, who will then play nine straight weeks from Sept. 23 through Nov. 18. The three-game mini-season needs to establish some good habits and provide a measure of increased clarity about the strengths and weaknesses of each player. This will give the coaching staff a chance to plan in greater depth during the Sept. 16 off week and shape the roster for the main nine-game season, particularly the big midseason battles at Notre Dame (Oct. 14) and against Utah (Oct. 21).”
We entered the season thinking that USC needed to get a lot of work done in the three games preceding Notre Dame: Arizona State, Colorado, and Arizona. That point hasn’t changed, but within that three-game segment, one game has definitely become more important in shaping the team for the biggest games of the year. We explain that point and more in this look at USC following its unimpressive opener against San Jose State:
A STEP BACKWARD ON DEFENSE
Is there time to fix the defense? Yes. USC doesn’t have to play well on defense against each of its next five opponents in order to win. The offense can pretty much pick its number of points and push USC to 6-0 even if the defense is bad.
However, even if there is time to fix the defense, we can say this much: USC lost time against San Jose State. This was the kind of game in which a coaching staff has to go back to square one and start fresh. Let’s flesh out this point:
SCALING BACK THE SCHEME
Instead of building and developing a defensive scheme, Alex Grinch has to scale back after last week. Everyone agrees USC was far too complicated in its first game, and that Grinch just needs to let guys play instinctively in natural roles instead of loading them up with too much information. This is part of what we mean when we say USC lost time. The coaching staff was too ambitious and now has to take a step back. That’s not how everything is supposed to go.
TEACHING PROCESS
We have noted that “Good teaching starts with simplicity and then moves toward clarity. In no rational world does it make sense to start with complexity and then move toward simplicity. When that happens in coaching, it’s an admission that players were given too much information at the beginning, instead of being slowly brought along. Teaching has to start with basic concepts. Once understood, those basic concepts can evolve into bigger, more nuanced ideas.”
A simplified approach has to emerge on defense in these next two weeks against Nevada and Stanford. That’s one way in which USC’s season has changed, but it’s not the main point. That comes next:
ARIZONA STATE ON SEPTEMBER 23 JUST GOT BIGGER
Not every problem on defense will be fixed in the next game against Nevada or in the following game versus Stanford. Not every problem will be fixed by the Arizona State game on September 23. It remains true that the USC defense probably won’t cost the Trojans a victory until October 14 against Notre Dame. Strictly in terms of wins and losses, nothing has changed for this season. The San Jose State game didn’t alter that reality.
However, what is different is that since the coaching staff valued film evaluation over a simplified scheme against San Jose State — and must therefore teach a less complicated scheme in the weeks ahead — the Arizona State game on Sept. 23 does become more important.
The reasoning is not that complex: The ASU game will come after a week off. That’s the time when a lot of teaching can occur, and players can begin to define a lot more clarity in their roles. We will need to see USC’s defense gain noticeably more clarity in that game as a ramp-up toward Notre Dame on October 14.
REALISTIC PERSPECTIVE
We’re not telling you USC should have it all figured out on defense by September 23 against Arizona State. We’re emphasizing that USC needs to look better and be a lot more coordinated and lucid on defense on Sept. 23 versus the Sun Devils in Tempe. The Trojans don’t need to be a finished product, but they do need to be a lot more advanced in how they react, how they finish plays, how they get off the field on third down.
Nevada and Stanford won’t tell us all that much. Arizona State needs to tell us a lot more and give us the confidence that on Oct. 14 against Notre Dame, this defense will be ready to play well enough to win.
PRESEASON
USC basically is playing a three-game preseason. That ends on September 9 against Stanford. Don’t draw any big conclusions from the Nevada or Stanford games. The ASU game on September 23 will begin to sharpen the focus on the Trojan defense.
