USC fans are naturally inclined to root against UCLA, but it’s an urgent task this week vs Oregon
Our friends at Ducks Wire will be covering the UCLA-Oregon game all week. ESPN College GameDay will be in Eugene. It’s a really big game for Oregon and UCLA, but also a big game for USC, which will take the week off and scout the Ducks and Bruins on film.
You will want to follow Ducks Wire’s coverage of UCLA-Oregon game week, and then the actual game on Saturday afternoon in Autzen Stadium. Since USC isn’t playing, we are in a position to share with you a lot of Ducks Wire’s insights and reportage.
We want to start UCLA-Oregon week by discussing one obvious point of interest for USC fans: Which team should the Trojans root for, relative to Pac-12 Championship Game scenarios and odds?
Let’s dive in:
FIRST OF ALL
What are Oregon fans thinking about the mood at USC after the Trojans lost to Utah? You can guess what USC fans are thinking: Pac-12 refs are the worst. That point aside, however, fans in Eugene might wonder: Which team will USC fans be rooting for?
THOUGHT PROCESS NO. 1
On one hand, this might seem easy: USC fans want a meteor shower and hope both teams can lose. Joking aside, of course, USC fans are never going to root for UCLA, right?
THOUGHT PROCESS NO. 2
Or, is it not that simple?
USC fans might want to play UCLA for all the marbles. Let’s have the Bruins be unbeaten so that the Trojans can take them down and go to the Pac-12 Championship Game for a rematch where we can beat them again.
Is the conventional view or the alternative view ascendant at Heritage Hall?
WHY USC FANS SHOULD ROOT FOR UCLA
The idea that USC fans would root for UCLA over Oregon is rooted in a desire to have UCLA on a pedestal, fat and happy and getting lots of love in the Los Angeles media sphere, so that the Trojans can play the underdog card and ambush them on Nov. 19.
MORE CONTEXT ON UCLA
Here’s the thing: Regardless of whether UCLA wins or loses against Oregon, USC will need to beat the Bruins to make the Pac-12 title game.
USC-UCLA is going to be a big game unless something really weird happens. Might as well have the Bruins take care of Oregon so that USC can get past the Ducks in any possible tiebreaker scenario and make the Pac-12 title game.
WHY USC FANS SHOULD ROOT FOR OREGON, PART ONE
This one is simple: UCLA always needs to lose. Real Trojans never want the Bruins to do well. On a purely emotional level, that’s the heart of the matter.
HOW THE USC-UTAH RESULT SHAPED THIS DEBATE
Utah beating USC makes it a lot easier for the Trojans to root for Oregon and against UCLA. Why? UCLA has the head-to-head tiebreaker against Utah, and USC does not. If there’s a three-way tie involving UCLA, USC, and Utah, the Trojans will probably be left out. If UCLA has head-to-head wins over Utah and Oregon, it will be in a position to win a three-team tiebreaker under Pac-12 tiebreaker rules.
UTAH LOSING ONE MORE GAME IS ESSENTIAL
Oregon beating UCLA enables USC to play UCLA in a Pac-12 elimination game: winner stays alive, loser is out.
As long as Utah loses one more conference game, USC would make the Pac-12 title game if Oregon beats UCLA and the Trojans can beat the Bruins in November.
IF USC HAD BEATEN UTAH, THIS WOULD BE VERY DIFFERENT
If USC had beaten Utah, the Trojans would be rooting for UCLA against Oregon. USC would have had the head-to-head tiebreaker over Utah, and Utah would have had two conference losses, essentially eliminating itself from the Pac-12 race. The Pac-12 would have been reduced to a three-team race. UCLA beating Oregon would mean that the Ducks could be eliminated with a loss to Utah on Nov. 19.
That scenario will not unfold, but if it had existed, the Trojans might have considered rooting for the Bruins.
THE PAC-12 ROAD GAME PLOT POINT
One reason USC will root for Oregon on Saturday (since it lost to Utah) is that none of the Pac-12’s big games have featured a road win this season. Utah lost at UCLA. USC lost at Utah. UCLA’s only road win this year is at Colorado. It is best for USC if Oregon maintains home-field dominance and runs the table in the Pac-12, which would mean wins over UCLA and Utah.
OREGON IS CURRENTLY USC'S ALLY, AND IT COULD SOON BECOME USC'S ADVERSARY
Oregon is now in a position to clear out USC’s main opponents and help the Trojans make the Pac-12 title game … with the Ducks being the matchup in Las Vegas.
UTAH'S SITUATION
If Utah makes the Pac-12 Championship Game, it will have beaten Oregon (Nov. 19), since Utah must beat Oregon to have any chance of making the Pac-12 title game.
Utah’s path is a difficult one, but if the Utes can run the table, they’ll own tiebreakers over Oregon and USC, but not UCLA. If there’s a three-team tie, Utah would not be third in that three-team tie. It would get in.
As much as we can debate UCLA-Oregon (which team USC should root for or against), the biggest thing USC needs is for Utah to lose one more game. As long as that happens, the Trojans are in great shape with a win over UCLA.
USC VS OREGON
USC doesn’t play Oregon in the regular season, so the Trojans can’t directly address a tiebreaker with the Ducks. Since Oregon’s biggest remaining games are at home (UCLA, Utah), the percentages would say that it’s more likely Oregon will go 2-0 than 0-2.
It’s better for USC if Oregon goes 2-0 as well, because the Ducks will have eliminated Utah under that scenario, and they will have ensured that USC can finish ahead of UCLA with a win on Nov. 19.
Oregon going 0-2 at home versus UCLA and Utah helps USC only if Utah loses a separate game (most likely at Washington State on Oct. 27).
UCLA TIEBREAKERS
If UCLA wins at Oregon, it would own tiebreakers over Oregon and Utah. USC could beat UCLA and still lose out in a possible three-team tie.
The one good thing for USC here: If UCLA does win at Oregon (again, not the desired result for the Trojans), there is still a path for USC to the Pac-12 title game.
Oregon beating Utah (following a UCLA win over Oregon, coupled with a USC win over UCLA) would eliminate the Utes. USC and Oregon could fall into a tie with the Bruins. If UCLA beats Oregon, that means Oregon and USC would have UCLA as a common opponent. USC would have a win, Oregon a loss. That probably creates a USC-UCLA rematch in Vegas.
BOTTOM LINE
We’re not saying a UCLA win over Oregon eliminates USC. That is not the case. However, an Oregon win over UCLA makes a three-team tiebreaker less likely, not more. USC’s loss to Utah, and USC’s lack of a head-to-head game against Oregon, means the Trojans probably don’t want a three-team tie at this point. Results could still create a favorable outcome for USC in a three-team tie, but an Oregon win over UCLA simplifies the path for the Trojans.
