Updated win-percentage odds for every Duck game according to ESPN FPI
By all metrics, the Oregon Ducks are expected to have a pretty successful season in 2023. That shouldn’t come as much of a surprise; Dan Lanning had a great first year as a head coach and now is more experienced going into 2023; the offense brings back QB Bo Nix, WR Troy Franklin, RB Bucky Irving, and TE Terrance Ferguson, among many other impact players; the defense has re-tooled and hopes to be much more productive with an improved pass-rush and speedy secondary.
While their preseason rankings across a number of polls may not reflect the high expectations that are held in Eugene, their projected record and early-season odds going into each game say differently.
On Tuesday, we looked at the newly updated ESPN Football Power Index projections for the Pac-12 Conference, seeing which teams out west are most likely to ultimately win the conference title in the final year of its existence. For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is a ranking that “relies on past performance, offense and defense, returning and transfer production, and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.”
Virtually, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percent chance to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.
After spring football concluded, ESPN’s FPI looked at each game on the schedule and gave a win percentage for each team based on their metrics. Following the remainder of the offseason and a few roster changes for each team, those odds have now been updated by ESPN as we get closer to the season actually starting.
Here’s how the odds have chanced for Oregon just a few weeks out from the first kickoff:
Week 1 vs. Portland State Vikings
James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 99.0%
Previous FPI Odds: 99.0%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 52, Portland State 13
Analysis
There has been no change in the win percentage for Oregon in Week 1 against Portland State. It sure will be nice to see the Ducks kick off the rust against the Vikings, rather than a team like the Georgia Bulldogs.
Week 2 at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 51.0%
Previous FPI Odds: 51.2%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 31, Texas Tech 23
Analysis
The hype for this game — a likely top-25 matchup — is definitely growing as we get closer to the event. While I still remain confident that the Ducks will be able to handle their business down in Lubbock, it’s becoming clear that this could be a big-time non-conference matchup for both schools.
Week 3 vs. Hawaii Warrios
Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 96.4%
Previous FPI Odds: 97.5%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 48, Hawaii 17
Analysis
Does a win percentage drop from 97.5% to 96.4% matter much? Not really, in my estimation. Oregon is still overwhelmingly favored to put it on Hawaii and not look back. I’d be curious to hear the reasoning for why the Ducks dropped in the odds, though.
Week 4 vs. Colorado Buffaloes
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 94.2%
Previous FPI Odds: 95.9%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 38, Colorado 14
Analysis
The early buzz around this game has been fun, especially with the comments made by Dan Lanning at Oregon’s media day, and Deion Sanders’ rebuttal a few days later. In the end, though, I’m not sure this game will be that entertaining on the field, at least after the first half.
Read More about the Colorado Buffaloes at Colorado Buffaloes Wire!
Week 5 vs. Stanford Cardinal
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 82.8%
Previous FPI Odds: 86.1%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 35, Stanford 10
Analysis
You’ll start to notice a trend of Oregon’s win percentage dropping slightly against a lot of the easier teams on their schedule. I’m not sure what the reasoning is, but again, I don’t think it is that important. With Stanford coming in Week 5 ahead of a bye week, and then a matchup against Washington, it will be important to get up early, get players off of the field, and get to preparing for the Huskies.
Week 7 at Washington Huskies
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 51.7%
Previous FPI Odds: 52.2%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 24, Washington 23
Analysis
Sure, Oregon’s odds to win this game may have dropped by a percentage point, according to ESPN, but they are still favored to beat the Huskies on the road up in Seattle. That has to be worth something.
Week 8 vs. Washington State Cougars
James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 86.9%
Previous FPI Odds: 89.7%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 42, Washington State 31
Analysis
Another instance of a win percentage drop, but another game where the Ducks are the overwhelming favorite. Should all go right, this should be a blowout in Autzen, but it will be important to notice the health following the Washington game, and the outlook heading into a Week 9 game at Utah.
Week 9 at Utah Utes
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 40.8%
Previous FPI Odds: 39.4%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 33, Utah 28
Analysis
Strangely enough, this is the lowest win percentage that Oregon has all year, not in Week 11 vs. USC. ESPN doesn’t seem to have a ton of confidence that the Ducks can go down to Salt Lake City and beat Utah for a second-straight season. However, their win percentage did bump up by a point since the spring, which likely had something to do with the lack of clarity surrounding QB Cam Rising’s knee injury and his projected return. Regardless, this will undoubtedly be one of the best games of the year in the Pac-12.
Week 10 vs. California Golden Bears
John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 81.3%
Previous FPI Odds: 84,5%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 24, California 10
Analysis
It’s nice that the Ducks have relatively winnable games sandwiched between their big-time games throughout the schedule. Washington State follows Washington, and California follows Utah. You’ll see later that Arizona State buffers games between USC and Oregon State. This game against Cal shouldn’t be too difficult to leave with a victory.
Week 11 vs. USC Trojans
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 46.0%
Previous FPI Odds: 45.5%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: USC 44, Oregon 35
Analysis
Oregon as a home underdog to USC? You love to see that. Should both teams’ seasons play out the way that we expect them to, there’s a really good chance that this is a matchup between a pair of undefeated or one-loss teams, and it could be a top-10 battle and a location for ESPN’s College GameDay. Whoever’s defense can step up and stifle the opposing offense will likely walk away victorious.
Week 12 at Arizona State Sun Devils
Michael Chow-Arizona Republic
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 78.3%
Previous FPI Odds: 81.8%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 49, Arizona State 27
Analysis
I think that emotions might be a bit high for both teams going into this one, with Kenny Dillingham squaring off against the Ducks for the first time. However, competition may not be too high on the field. I expect a big win from Oregon.
Week 13 vs. Oregon State Beavers
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 65.9%
Previous FPI Odds: 68.1%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 31, Oregon State 20
Analysis
Oregon’s odds dropped a bit in this game against Oregon State, but they are still solid favorites to win. This is a matchup where I think you throw out the predictions, though. It is already a heated rivalry, and now that you throw in the fact that the Ducks are leaving the Beavers dead in the water following their move to the Big Ten, there’s going to be a lot of vitriol, both on the field and in the stands. This one could get ugly.
Season Outlook
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
FPI Score: 15.0
FPI Rank: 13th
Projected Record: 8.9-3.4
Pac-12 Title Odds: 18.4%
College Football Playoff Odds: 7.5%
National Championship Odds: 2.4%
Win Championship Odds: 0.7%
