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Updated Sooners game-by-game win probabilities per ESPN FPI after win over Texas

John Williams
·3 min read
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The Oklahoma Sooners came up with an incredible win over the Texas Longhorns on Saturday. It was a game that, to the casual observer, would have looked out of reach for the average team.

For the Sooners, however, they’ve shown before that they can overcome large deficits in the Lincoln Riley era. You only have to go back to the game against Baylor when the Sooners fell behind big only to see Jalen Hurts provide a Herculean effort to bring Oklahoma back to win the football game in Waco.

With the win, the Oklahoma Sooners remain favorites per ESPN’s Football Power Index to win every single game. The win probability margin narrowed in four of their six remaining games. Only against Kansas and Texas Tech did their win probability grow from last week to this week.

The Sooners are in the driver’s seat in the Big 12, though they have a huge question to answer at quarterback this week. With a typically tough matchup against TCU on the horizon, the Sooners can’t afford to keep playing from behind every week. TCU’s offense poses some problems and Oklahoma will need to have a strong week at practice to be prepared for the challenge.

Oct. 16 vs. TCU Horned Frogs

LUBBOCK, TEXAS – OCTOBER 09: Running back Zach Evans #6 of the TCU Horned Frogs runs the ball during the first half of the college football game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium on October 09, 2021 in Lubbock, Texas. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 81.9% (down from 86.6%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 16-5

Projected running record: 7-0

Oct. 23 at Kansas Jayhawks

Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Brock Purdy (15) runs the ball during the first half of the game against Kansas at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021.
Isu4 Jpg

David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 98.4% (up from 98.2%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 78-27-6

Projected running record: 8-0

Oct. 30 vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Oct 9, 2021; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders wide receiver Erik Ezukanma (13) rushes in the second half against the Texas Christian Horned Frogs at Jones AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 90.4% (up from 89.2%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 22-6

Projected running record: 9-0

Nov. 13 at Baylor Bears

Oct 9, 2021; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback Gerry Bohanon (11) passes against the West Virginia Mountaineers during the second half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

McLane Stadium

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 72.4% (down from 76%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 28-3

Projected running record: 10-0

Nov. 20 vs. Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State Cyclones linebacker Mike Rose and Iowa State defensive end Eyioma Uwazurike takes down Kansas’ wide receiver Torry Locklin during the first quarter at Jack Trice Stadium Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021, in Ames, Iowa. © Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 65% (down from 73.3%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 77-7-2

Projected running record: 11-0

Nov. 27 at Oklahoma State Cowboys

Oct 2, 2021; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys running back Jaylen Warren (7) scores a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Baylor Bears at Boone Pickens Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports

Boone Pickens Stadium

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 74.6% (down from 79.1%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 90-18-7

Projected running record: 12-0

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