Updated Patriots 2024 draft pick projections entering Week 17
Updated Patriots 2024 draft pick projections entering Week 17 originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The New England Patriots fell all the way from No. 2 to No. 4 in the first round order for the 2024 NFL Draft as a result of their 26-23 win over the Denver Broncos in Week 16.
Depending on how the draft order unfolds and when the top QB prospects -- USC's Caleb Williams, UNC's Drake Maye and LSU's Jayden Daniels -- get picked, it could end up being a costly victory for New England.
Here are the updated odds for the Patriots to secure the No. 1 pick, a top-two pick or a top-three pick in the upcoming draft. All data is from Seth Walder of ESPN Analytics.
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Just how much did the Patriots' win over the Denver Broncos in Week 16 hurt their chances of landing a top pick?
Well, entering Week 15 the Patriots had a 82 percent chance at a top-three pick, per Walder. That number dropped to 43 percent after they beat the Broncos. The Patriots had a 58 percent chance to earn a top-two pick before defeating the Broncos, and their current odds are 12 percent. New England's chance to earn the No. 1 overall selection dropped from 10 percent to less than one percent.
These drops are pretty significant, and it shows how large of an impact a single win can have on these projections.
The Patriots will get at least the No. 4 pick if they lose their remaining two games -- Week 17 at the Buffalo Bills and home to the New York Jets in Week 18. If they win a fifth game, they could slide all the way to No. 7 depending on how other teams around them perform and how the tiebreakers shake out.
The Patriots could also leapfrog the Cardinals and/or Commanders and move up in the draft order to No. 2 or No. 3. But that would require these teams to lose at least one more game, and based on their schedules, this scenario is unlikely.
Commanders: Week 17 vs. 49ers, Week 18 vs. Cowboys
Cardinals: Week 17 at Eagles, Week 18 vs. Seahawks
The most likely spot for the Patriots to land is No. 4 overall, but there are still plenty of ways for them to move up or down in the order over the final two weeks of the regular season.
