Updated look at the ESPN matchup predictor after the Sooners win over UCF
At 7-0 overall and 4-0 in the Big 12, the Oklahoma Sooners are in the driver’s seat for a Big 12 title game berth and possibly more. But as Saturday against UCF showed, each week is going to be a challenge.
We’ve seen in recent years that the Big 12 provides stumbling blocks along the way for any team attempting an undefeated run. This year is no different.
Heading into the 2023 season, many thought the Oklahoma Sooners’ schedule had few difficult matchups. Just over halfway through the season, games against Kansas, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and BYU look far more difficult than they once did. While TCU may not look like it has a lot going for them after a 41-3 loss to Kansas State, much could change for the Horned Frogs in the next five weeks to make them a serious challenger.
The Oklahoma Sooners simply have to take it one game at a time and show up for each matchup ready to roll. If they are locked in, they’re as good as any team in the conference and nearly every team in the nation.
Let’s take a look at how the win probabilities shifted via the ESPN matchup predictor after Week 8.
Oct. 28: Kansas Jayhawks (Lawrence)
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium (Lawrence)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 87.3% (Down from 89.7%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 80-27-6
Projected running record: 8-0
Nov. 4: BEDLAM - Oklahoma State (Stillwater)
Boone Pickens Stadium (Stillwater)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 87.6% (Down from 92.1%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 91-19-7
Projected running record: 9-0
Nov. 11: West Virginia Mountaineers (Norman)
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 94.9% (Up from 94.8%)
All-Time Series: 11-3
Projected running record: 10-0
Nov. 18: BYU Cougars (Provo)
LaVell Edwards Stadium (Provo)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 92.5% (Down from 94.6%)
All-Time Series: BYU leads 2-0
Projected running record: 11-0
Nov. 24: TCU Horned Frogs (Norman)
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 89.1% (Up from 88.5%)
All-Time Series: 17-6
Projected running record: 12-0
Analysis
It was an interesting week in the Big 12. The computers lost a little bit of confidence in the Sooners’ three remaining road games in Lawrence, Stillwater, and Provo. However, Oklahoma is still projected to win all three of those games with a win probability greater than 87% for all three.
The Sooners picked up some win probability points against West Virginia and TCU after both teams took losses in Week 8. In TCU’s case, the Horned Frogs were manhandled by Kansas State.
The Oklahoma Sooners are in a strong position to win the remainder of their games, but they’ll have to be more locked in than they were against UCF.
Contact/Follow us @SoonersWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oklahoma news, notes, and opinions. You can also follow John on Twitter @john9williams.
