Updated game-by-game win percentage chances for Wisconsin football after its win over Buffalo
A roller coaster Week 1 of the college football season is nearing completion, with a top-10 matchup between No. 5 LSU and No. 8 Florida State on Sunday night and No. 9 Clemson and Duke on Monday night.
The Big Ten schedule is complete. While most of the conference is 1-0 after the week, some out-of-conference matchups were far from a cakewalk. Then there’s Purdue, which lost to Fresno State in Ryan Walters’ debut as head coach.
ESPN’s Football Power Index continuously updates as games go final. It is a good barometer for how much Ohio State struggling with Indiana, for example, matters. And whether Nebraska’s 13-10 loss to Minnesota actually is a good sign for the rest of the season.
Related: Five takeaways from Wisconsin football’s season-opening win over Buffalo
For Wisconsin, the 38-17 win over Buffalo came with mixed reviews. The first half was nothing close to pretty, but the team pulled away in the second half thanks to huge games from both Chez Mellusi and Braelon Allen.
Now that Week 1 is complete, here are the updated game-by-game win probabilities for the Badgers for the rest of the season:
Week 2 at Washington State
Matchup predictor: 63.3% Wisconsin wins (was 69.9% entering Week 1)
Date: Sept. 9
Washington State FPI Rank: No. 52
Washington State’s 2023 record: 1-0
Week 3 vs. Georgia Southern
Matchup predictor: 88.9% Wisconsin wins (down from 90%)
Date: Sept. 16
Georgia Southern FPI Rank: No. 80
Georgia Southern’s 2023 record: 1-0
Week 4 at Purdue
Matchup predictor: 72.7% Wisconsin wins (up from 63.1%)
Date: Sept. 22 (Friday)
Purdue FPI Rank: No. 61
Purdue’s 2023 record: 0-1
Week 5 (BYE)
Week 6 vs. Rutgers
Matchup predictor: 89.4% Wisconsin wins (up from 88.8%)
Date: Oct. 7
Rutgers FPI Rank: No. 76
Rutgers’ 2023 record: 1-0
Week 7 vs. Iowa
Matchup predictor: 69.6% Wisconsin wins (up from 66.9%)
Date: Oct. 14
Iowa FPI Rank: No. 44
Iowa’s 2023 record: 1-0
Week 8 at Illinois
Matchup predictor: 62.1% Wisconsin wins (up from 58.6%)
Date: Oct. 21
Illinois FPI Rank: No. 47
Illinois’ 2023 record: 1-0
Week 9 vs. Ohio State
Matchup predictor: 14.7% Wisconsin wins (up from 13.7%)
Date: Oct. 28
Ohio State FPI Rank: No. 2
Ohio State’s 2023 record: 1-0
Week 10 at Indiana
Matchup predictor: 72.2% Wisconsin wins (down from 77.2%)
Date: Nov. 4
Indiana FPI Rank: No. 63
Indiana’s 2023 record: 0-1
Week 11 vs. Northwestern
Matchup predictor: 82.5% Wisconsin wins (down from 83.2%)
Date: Nov. 11
Northwestern FPI Rank: No. 65
Northwestern’s 2023 record: 0-1
Week 12 vs. Nebraska
Matchup predictor: 76% Wisconsin wins (down from 77.7%)
Date: Nov. 18
Nebraska FPI Rank: No. 51
Nebraska’s 2023 record: 0-1
Week 13 at Minnesota
Matchup predictor: 58.8% Wisconsin wins (up from 52.6%)
Date: Nov. 25
Minnesota FPI Rank: No. 43
Minnesota 2023 record: 1-0
Overall
FPI Rank: 23
Projected W-L: 8.6-3.9
% Chance…
Wisconsin wins out: 0.5
Six or more wins: 94.5
Win Big Ten West: 45.5
Win Big Ten: 8.4
Makes College Football Playoff: 2.4
Win National Title: 0.2
