Unpacking Mississippi State baseball's résumé as NCAA tournament hosting decision looms

HOOVER, Ala. — Mississippi State baseball experienced the thrill of the SEC tournament Tuesday with Connor Hujsak’s two-run, walk-off homer to beat Ole Miss. The following day, No. 5 seed MSU ran it back, with Hujsak delivering a two-run single to break a ninth-inning tie in a victory against Texas A&M.

However, the success at Hoover Metropolitan Stadium stalled.

Mississippi State lost to Vanderbilt on Thursday before getting eliminated by Tennessee 6-5 on Friday.

“It’s been a fun week here,” coach Chris Lemonis said after the game. “I thought we had a little more magic left in us.”

Now, Mississippi State (38-21) returns to a question that has loomed since a late April series win at Vanderbilt.

Will the Bulldogs host a regional in the NCAA tournament? Lemonis has been adamant, even before the victories in Hoover, that the answer should be a resounding “yes.”

But across various projections, it’s unclear whether Dudy Noble Field will host postseason baseball for the first time since 2021.

Here’s a look at Mississippi State’s résumé after its exit from the SEC tournament.

Mississippi State baseball résumé

• RPI: 25

• Strength of schedule: 14

• Nonconference strength of schedule: 133

• KPI: 11

Why Mississippi State baseball should host in the NCAA tournament

Despite back-to-back seasons with no postseason appearance, Mississippi State players have echoed a shared message through 2024. Hujsak repeated it again Friday night.

“We can play with anyone in the country,” he said.

The Bulldogs have proven that.

Mississippi State has 16 Quadrant 1 victories this season. Here’s how the quadrants are categorized, with RPI serving as a rating the selection committee uses as a tool in assembling the NCAA tournament field of 64.

• Quadrant 1: home (1-25), neutral (1-40), away (1-60)

• Quadrant 2: home (26-50), neutral (41-80), away (61-120)

• Quadrant 3: home (51-100), neutral (81-160), away (121-240)

• Quadrant 4: home (101-305), neutral (161-305), away (241-305)

Only Kentucky, Tennessee and Texas A&M have more Quad 1 wins. A big piece in collecting those victories is a credit to Mississippi State never getting swept in a weekend series.

“They grind it out,” Lemonis said. “There’s sometimes you’re not sure you’re getting that one win and we find a way. In this league, you have some heartbreaking losses, too. You have a really tough loss, and they’re very resilient. They’ll bounce back.”

Mid-majors in the hosting conversation — Indiana State, East Carolina and UC Santa Barbara — have combined for 11 Quad 1 wins. Of that trio’s 124 wins, 89 have come in Quad 3 or 4 opportunities.

There’s also an unspoken piece to the committee’s consideration of Mississippi State. The Bulldogs play at Dudy Noble Field — a ballpark that owns 24 of the NCAA’s top 25 on-campus attendance records.

In three home regional games last year, Indiana State had a total attendance of 7,092. Mississippi State had 8,267 fans at a February midweek game against Jackson State.

“We’ve got the nicest ballpark in college baseball to be able to host and set that up for us,” Lemonis said.

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The case against Mississippi State baseball hosting

RPI has been a debated topic in college baseball. The metric is flawed, which committee members have admitted in the past. But it’s a tool still helpful in configuring the field — along with other factors such as the KPI, in which MSU sits at No. 11.

Mississippi State leaves Hoover sitting at No. 24 in the RPI. Only 16 teams host, and five from the SEC (Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Georgia) seem to be locked in.

If MSU isn’t the sixth team from the conference to host, the nonconference slate will likely be why. Mississippi State has dropped five Quad 4 games. In the first week of the season, it lost four nonconference games.

“We started slow,” Lemonis said. “The only reason we’re having this conversation is our first week, we lost four games early. In the first week of the season, we had seven guys injured.”

Since 2014, nine SEC teams have won exactly 17 conference games. Five of those have hosted a regional, including three of the past four.

Stefan Krajisnik is the Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion Ledger. Contact him at skrajisnik@gannett.com or follow him on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, @skrajisnik3.

This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State baseball's NCAA hosting résumé after SEC tournament