Can the UND hockey team keep up its current pace?
Dec. 5—GRAND FORKS — The UND hockey team is off to a remarkable start considering it turned over more than half of its roster from a year ago, including its entire back end.
The Fighting Hawks will enter the final week of the pre-Christmas schedule with a 12-3-1 record, while holding the nation's No. 1 spot in the USCHO poll, the USA Hockey/The Rink Live poll and the Pairwise Rankings.
Is it possible for UND to keep up this pace?
Or is UND overperforming right now and due for a regression in the second half?
A look at some of the deeper analytics show positive signs for UND.
The main statistic is expected goals (xG).
This formula tracks every shot that's attempted during a game. It marks the location of the shot and the type of shot — slap shot, wrist shot, backhand, deflection. It then gives that attempt a value based on the chance it has of going in the net.
At the end of the game, it adds up every attempt for both teams and gives a projected final score of the game.
If a team's record is way better than xG thinks it should be, that team could be due for a regression. If the team's record is worse than xG thinks it should be, that team could be due for a surge.
This is exactly what happened last season.
On this same week a year ago, xG predicted UND should have been 13-4. The Fighting Hawks, in reality, were 6-8-3.
UND's record, indeed, markedly improved from that .441 winning percentage through the first 17 games. The Fighting Hawks went 12-6-3 (.643) in the 21 games that followed.
So, what does xG say about UND's start this season?
It expects UND's record to be 13-3. The Fighting Hawks are 12-3-1. It's virtually spot on. That indicates UND's fast start to the season has not been smoke and mirrors. The Fighting Hawks have deserved their record.
A deeper look also shows one area where UND has overperformed this season.
The stat says UND should have 59 goals this season. The Fighting Hawks have 60. They're scoring goals almost exactly at the rate expected for the chances they've created.
The stat also says UND should have 42 goals against this season. The Fighting Hawks have given up 35. That means goaltender Ludvig Persson has saved an impressive seven goals above the average goaltender and his play has been as good as the eye test indicates.
The second stat is PDO — shooting percentage plus save percentage.
If a number is unusually high, it can mean a regression is in order.
The average is 100.
UND is at 102.8, which is a little high, but not in the range of an outlier. Denver's POD of 105.4 leads the NCHC. Miami's 98.4 is last.
There's still a lot of time left in the season, but the underlying stats indicate UND has played as well as its record has showed thus far.
