UFC Fight Night betting: How to bet Holly Holm-Mayra Bueno Silva main event

Holly Holm continues her quest for one final shot at UFC gold Saturday night, when she faces No. 10 Mayra Bueno Silva. Holm (8-6 UFC) is best known for her head-kick knockout of former champion Ronda Rousey at UFC 193. The massive upset forever altered the course of women’s MMA and made Holm the bantamweight champion in only her third fight since joining the promotion. Holm’s reign was short, as she relinquished the title to Miesha Tate in her next bout and has spent the last eight years looking to reclaim it.

It’s hard to believe it’s been almost a decade since Holm’s historic win in 2015. The bantamweight contender is 0-4 in title fights since dethroning Rousey on that eventful night. However, Holm’s persistence is likely to pay off with the division up for grabs after the retirement of Amanda Nunes. Raquel Pennington and Julianna Peña are expected to get first crack at the vacated belt, with Holm lurking in the shadows for the winner.

First, Holm has to handle business against a very dangerous opponent in Bueno Silva. Holm is currently the betting favorite at BetMGM at -175, with Bueno Silva listed as a +145 underdog. I will analyze where the value lies on the moneyline price and options in the prop market, along with several different betting strategies that can be applied to this five-round main event.

Holly Holm (-175) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (+145)

This is the perfect opponent for Holm, considering all the surrounding factors. Bueno Silva is on a two-fight winning streak and is a dangerous enough threat to strengthen Holm’s case for a title shot. Holm has a very specific skill set at this stage of her career. She has solid striking at distance and can use her physicality to wear down smaller opponents up against the cage or on the mat with top control. She will have to be careful because Bueno Silva has some pop in the clinch and can latch lightning quick if you leave a limb exposed in a scramble. While some bettors will rightfully see Holm’s age as a red flag, it’s her experience that has made me comfortable that she can operate in these positions effectively without making a costly mistake.

Holm has trained at Jackson-Wink MMA her entire career and always comes prepared to fight with a solid strategic gameplan, even if it’s not visually appealing for fans. Against a more reckless and undisciplined opponent, I would have been more cautious in backing “The Preacher’s Daughter.” But I expect Holm to land at range and grind the smaller Bueno Silva down throughout the course of five rounds, pushing her opponent's cardio into uncharted territory. Holm has fought a full five rounds in her two previous fights before her last win over Yana Santos, while this will be Bueno Silva’s first time competing for more than three rounds in the UFC. Holm is a workhorse who has landed nine takedowns while dominating control time 25:08 to 2:46 over her last three fights. I expect Holm to get takedowns at will but also be able to keep Bueno Silva at range if she feels it’s too dangerous on the mat. Bet: Holly Holm (-175)

Props and round betting

Whenever Holm is a clear favorite, the total is going to be correlated toward the fight ending in a decision. Over 4.5 rounds is priced at a juicy -210, while you can get a slight discount on the fight going to a decision at -185. While I’m confident this one lasts the full five rounds, there isn’t value in laying a more expensive price than Holm’s moneyline, as Silva’s win equity in that scenario is minimal. The better bet is to wager on Holm to win by decision at even money (+100). Each of Holm’s last four wins and six of her last seven fights went to the judges' scorecards. A knockout loss to Amanda Nunes was the only one of Holm’s fights to end inside the distance in the last five years. While Holm’s age and experience give her advantages that should be the difference in the fight, it’s clear her finishing potential has been greatly diminished in this late stage of her career. Bet: Holly Holm by decision +100

Is there value in hedging against Holm?

The deeper a fighter extends his or her career, the more bettors pay attention. Capturing a fighter’s decline can be very profitable if you successfully project the exact fight when a veteran falls off the cliff. At 41 years old, that reality becomes a greater possibility with every fight for Holm. The stylistic matchup provides bettors with an opportunity to safeguard against the upset by using a bet on Bueno Silva to win by submission at +350 as a hedge. It’s clearly the most viable path to victory for the dangerous Brazilian jui-jitsu practitioner, who has won five of her last six bouts by submission. I haven’t hedged personally, because I feel strongly that Holm’s experience will prevail. It’s still a solid option for those more concerned about Holm entering the final stages of her career.

At +350 odds, you only need to risk 28.6% to return one full unit, or 50% of a unit to cover laying the full money line price of -175. If you want to get more granular, you can place multiple smaller bets on the exact rounds she earns the submission, assuming the likelihood of Bueno Silva catching Holm early in the fight is higher because the fighters are less sweaty. The prices range from Bueno Silva winning by submission in Round 1 at +1200 to Round 5 at +2800 at BetMGM. I am unlikely to personally hedge myself, but there are plenty of opportunities available.