UFC Fight Night betting: Here's one wager to jump on before the odds shift
It was nice to see a live crowd in Nashville, but the fights return to the quiet atmosphere of the Apex this weekend. The UFC card is headlined by a welterweight bout between Vincente Luque and Rafael Dos Anjos. Luque will return after a one-year layoff in hopes of snapping a two-fight losing streak.
The co-main event features a fighter looking to snap an even bigger skid, as former heavyweight Chris Daukaus makes his debut at 205 pounds against Khalil Rountree. The fight was initially scheduled to take place at UFC 289 in June, but an injury to Daukaus pushed the fight back to Saturday’s event. Will the lighter weight class resurrect Daukaus’ career? Let’s break this down, because this is a bout bettors should jump on at the current odds.
Khalil Rountree -190 vs. Chris Daukaus +155
Don’t be surprised if my breakdown ends up being longer than the fight. Daukaus doesn’t do decisions. His kill-or-be-killed approach worked well for the majority of his career, but three consecutive knockout losses made cutting a few pounds more appealing than exchanging death blows with heavyweights. Those types of fights are fun until you’re on the wrong end. Daukaus (4-3 UFC) has only been to a decision one time in his 18-fight career. His last 13 fights ended in TKO/KO, including all seven in the UFC. Any possibility of Daukaus adopting a more conservative approach for his debut at a new weight class immediately gets thrown out the window when you look at his opponent.
Rountree (7-5 UFC) is an aggressive Muay Thai striker who packs knockout power with both his hands and his legs. Rountree will attack the body with kicks and swarm his opponents with powerful combinations of strikes and knees. He is far from a technically flawless fighter, but he’s showcased better footwork and more improved movement during his recent three-fight winning streak. His last fight was a split-decision win over Dustin Jacoby, which looks more impressive after this past Saturday night. At UFC Nashville, Jacoby scored a performance of the night bonus for his 82-second knockout of Kennedy Nzechukwu.
Ultimately, we have an improving fighter riding a three-fight win streak against an opponent coming off three consecutive knockout losses. Considering Rountree’s explosiveness, there is a greater likelihood of him finding Daukaus’ chin than the -190 odds imply (65%). I am always skeptical of fighters dropping weight classes in hopes of improving their durability. Daukaus got slept by some guys with crippling power (Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis). It’s unreasonable to expect anyone’s durability to improve after taking that type of damage. There is a school of thought that they will improve defensively because they will be lighter, but the speed of his new division is another world compared to heavyweight. He is moving to a weight class with more explosive athletes who will be able to take advantage of his defensive liabilities more easily. In his last three fights, Daukaus has been outlanded 56-24 in significant strikes, while absorbing 47 (83.9%) of those to the head.
I’m from the Philadelphia area and love supporting local fighters, but this isn’t a situation where I can do it with my money. I bet Khalil Rountree on the moneyline at -190, and I would expect the odds to move in Rountree’s direction to make him a much bigger favorite by fight time. Once the props open at BetMGM, I will be looking to bet Roundtree by KO, along with early round results as well. The Bet: Khalil Rountree -190
