UFC Fight Night 232: Quick Picks and Prognostications
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Fight Night 232.
UFC Fight Night 232 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The event streams on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 4-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 112-78-6
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Uros Medic (+120) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-142)
Amanda Ribas (-265) vs. Luana Pinheiro (+200)
Payton Talbott (-700) vs. Nick Aguirre (+480)
Chase Hooper (-235) vs. Jordan Leavitt (+180)
In what’s easily one of the more intriguing fights on this card, Chase Hooper will take on fellow Contender Series product, Jordan Leavitt.
Despite both fighters having mixed records against fellow southpaws, I’d probably give a slight striking edge to the more thoughtful defense and offense of Leavitt.
Chase Hooper, who faces fellow southpaw Jordan Leavitt at #UFCVegas82, is officially 1-2 opposite UFC-level lefties (W: Barrett; L: Garcia, Caceres)
He also beat a southpaw in Kawaihae on DWCS, but Hooper struggled with striking on all levels in those fights. #TheSouthpawReport pic.twitter.com/GnwZwz8HSu
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) November 17, 2023
That said, the dynamic of this fight likely comes down to Hooper’s offensive striking volume and scrambling vs. Leavitt’s savvy counters and sticky grappling.
Couple that with the fact that both men are also incredibly opportunistic finishers, and what we have is a very tricky fight to call.
Even though I can understand why Hooper is favored to win, I’ll lean a bit into my biases here by picking a fellow-trained Neil Melanson grappler in Leavitt to edge out the scorecards via striking damage and superior positioning.
Michael Morales (-310) vs. Jake Matthews (+230)
Brendan Allen (-440) vs. Paul Craig (+310)
The main event in Las Vegas features a matchup between ranked middleweights, Brendan Allen and Paul Craig.
Although I can understand why Allen is favored to win, the betting spread listed above feels a bit wide for my liking.
As we’ve often seen in middleweight MMA, we tend to either get weird fights or lackluster striking affairs whenever two strong grapplers get paired together. Add in the chaos that can be encouraged by the smaller octagon of the UFC Apex, and I’d leave some room to be surprised this Saturday.
Despite being a big fan of quietly improving Scotsman in Craig, I have a hard time picking against Allen given his current form. Don’t be surprised to see a somewhat slow start, but I’ll take Allen to force a stoppage by strikes in Round 3.
