UFC Fight Night 218: Quick picks and prognostications
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Fight Night 218.
UFC Fight Night 218 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card streams on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 3-2
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 6-4-0
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Yusaku Kinoshita (-350) vs. Adam Fugitt (+270)
Despite the UFC matchmakers’ refusal to open Fight Night main cards with lightweight or featherweight fights, I’m happy to see them put together this all-action affair between welterweights [autotag]Yusaku Kinoshita[/autotag] and [autotag]Adam Fugitt[/autotag] (a matchup I called for in my Grading the Winners column).
Although this may appear to be a showcase bout for Kinoshita at first glance, I warn anyone who is completely writing off Fugitt in this spot.
Not only is Fugitt a well-rounded fighter with elbows that could be problematic in close, but the American’s muay Thai sensibilities should lend itself to the southpaw vs. southpaw style paring at play (a dynamic that can really throw a violent wrench into standing exchanges).
That said, I really liked the speed and southpaw savvy I saw from Kinoshita on the Contender Series, and suspect that his skills have only grown since moving shop to Kill Cliff FC. I’ll pick Kinoshita by first-round knockout.
Doo Ho Choi (-190) vs. Kyle Nelson (+160)
The main card’s lone bout south of 170 pounds is a fun featherweight matchup between [autotag]Doo Ho Choi[/autotag] and [autotag]Kyle Nelson[/autotag].
Choi is coming off of a three-year layoff due to a required military service in South Korea, while Nelson is making his return to 145 pounds after a failed bid up a division.
It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from Choi after his long layoff, but there is one near-certainty in this matchup: If Choi can survive the early storm from Nelson, history has shown that the Canadian tends to tire down the stretch.
I also see Choi’s blazing right hand and cleanup-hitting left hook having a high potential to pierce Nelson’s guard, so I’ll pick the scrappy Korean to score a knockout by the second round.
Marcin Tybura (-140) vs. Blagoy Ivanov (+120)
Despite flying multiple Road to UFC tournament finalists out to Las Vegas, the matchmakers saw fit to double down on heavyweight filler and make a fight between [autotag]Blagoy Ivanov[/autotag] and [autotag]Marcin Tybura[/autotag] a main card attraction.
I actually have a soft spot for both of these fighters, which makes me hate to see them paired up in the first place.
Tybura has been on a bit of a roll and is designated as the favorite, but the perennially-underrated Ivanov has found himself on the wrong end of some split decisions due to his style of countering and working the body (which are tactics that are still grossly undervalued by some judges and the gen pop alike).
I know it’s going to be a close, slogging affair, so I’ll side with the unkillable underdog in Ivanov to squeak out some deserved karma on the scorecards.
Devin Clark (+200) vs. Da Un Jung (-250)
Death, taxes, and the UFC matchmakers’ commitment to flooding Fight Night cards with random light heavyweight (and heavyweight) affairs.
This week’s co-main event features a fight at 205 pounds between [autotag]Devin Clark[/autotag] and [autotag]Da Un Jung[/autotag].
Although Clark will be without his famed cornerman and father, David Clark, I’ll be curious to see what the American is able to show after completing his third camp with the Elevation Fight Team. However, despite Clark demonstrating some improved kicks in recent outings, I still can’t help but notice his bad reactions to strikes along the fence.
For that reason, I’ll side with Jung’s size and superior striking skills to force some bad shots out of Clark – who I suspect wrestles his way into a wicked front choke before the final bell.
Derrick Lewis (+180) vs. Serghei Spivac (-230)
The main event on ESPN+ features a recycled heavyweight showdown between [autotag]Derrick Lewis[/autotag] and [autotag]Serghei Spivac[/autotag].
As former UFC color commentator Brian Stann pointed out years ago, fighters who try and grapple Lewis generally do worse than fighters who try and strike with him. And outside of one Daniel Cormier, that statement is largely true.
So, between that and the fact that Lewis is 3-0 inside of The Apex, I can’t help but take a shot on Lewis to right the ship here.
I expect Spivac to get off to a great start early, but believe that his willingness to grapple will put him in some vulnerable spots for a classic Lewis knockout come the second round.
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