UFC on ESPN 53 breakdown: Can Amanda Ribas top two-time champ Rose Namajunas?
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN 53
UFC on ESPN 53 (ESPN/ESPN+) takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Amanda Ribas (12-4 MMA, 7-3 UFC)
Staple info:
Height: 5’4″ Age: 30 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 66″
Last fight: TKO win over Luana Pinheiro (Nov. 18, 2023)
Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Judo black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ Amateur MMA titles
+ 3 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Steadily improving striking
^ Punctuates combos with kicks
+ Effective inside the clinch
^ Good dirty boxing, trips and tosses
+ Solid wrestling ability
+ Excellent transitional grappler
Rose Namajunas (11-6 MMA, 9-5 UFC)
Staple info:
Height: 5’5″ Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 65″
Last fight: Decision loss to Manon Fiorot (July 22, 2023)
Camp: The Academy MN (Minnesota)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC strawweight champion
+ Taekwondo and karate black belts
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 2 KO victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Good feints and footwork
^ Manages distance well
+ Accurate and effective jab
+ Counters well with right hand
+ Improved wrestling ability
+ Solid top game/positional rides
^ Looks for/floats toward back
+ Active and attacking guard
Point of interest: Striking in the small cage
The main event in the Apex features an important fight in the women’s flyweight division between Amanda Ribas and Rose Namajunas.
Despite Ribas coming from a grappling base, Ribas demonstrates a surprising amount of comfort on the feet once she’s able to get going.
Typically fencing in and out of range off prodding jabs, Ribas will look for opportunities to either counter or blitz her opposition in combination. When feeling in stride, the Brazilian fighter is not shy about attaching hard kicks to the end of said combos.
Whether Ribas is looking to land spin kicks to the head or mix things up by going to the body, the American Team product has displayed that she has a dynamic kicking repertoire in her back pocket.
Ribas has also shown the ability to fight competently from southpaw in recent fights, but her fast-and-loose guard still leaves a lot to be desired from a defensive standpoint. And considering her current counterpart, Ribas will likely need to be on her best behavior.
Enter Namajunas.
A talented opportunist who can accentuate her length through accurate and concise jabs, Namanjunas presents some tricky distances for her opponents to cover on paper.
Namajunas does well with judging the risk versus reward regarding her options of following up with crosses and kicks or backing up out of range. The 31-year-old has also massively improved her ability to set things up off of feints under the tutelage of Trevor Wittman – a coach who has helped Namajunas hone in on her skills by sharpening her overall fundamentals.
That said, it has been apparent that Wittman’s presence has steadily faded out from Namajunas’ camp and corner in recent fights. Namajunas has re-linked with former coach Greg Nelson, so I’ll be curious to see if there’s a major focus on footwork given the kind of action that the smaller octagon encourages.
Point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Given Ribas’ on-paper edge in the grappling realm, no one should be shocked if she attempts to ground Namajunas early and often.
However, in the former champion’s defense, Namajunas has made quiet improvements to both her wrestling and overall grappling throughout the years.
After suffering her first loss to Carla Esparza, Namajunas hit an immediate upswing in her grappling abilities, displaying that she had more to offer than just opportunistic submissions off of her back.
Utilizing offensive wrestling and top pressure, Namajunas began taking down her counterparts, exposing them to submissions underneath her suggestive shoulder pressure and slick transitions. In fact, Namajunas’ offensive wrestling is what many point to as the difference-makers in her rematches with both Jedrzejczyk and Zhang Weili.
That said, I’m not sure how much meaningful success she will have wrestling someone like Ribas.
An accoladed judoka, Ribas has a knack for parlaying opponents’ offensive wrestling pressure into hip tosses that allow for her to get topside. Ribas also is capable of hitting more wrestling-style takedowns like reactive level changes or more traditional double legs, but typically attempts those when her opponent has their back to the fence.
Once Ribas can get things to the ground, she becomes even more comfortable behind the proverbial steering wheel. From positional ground striking to transitional submission threats, Ribas appears to be the complete package from a grappling perspective.
Luckily for Namajunas, she has seemingly embraced some useful tactics for whenever she finds herself on the bottom. Even though Namajunas will still spam submissions off of her back, she seems to be much better about utilizing techniques like butterfly insteps or placing her feet on her opposition’s hips to create space.
Should Ribas allow Namajunas to create scrambles, then she will need to be careful about exposing her back to the former champ in the chaos.
A superb back-taker, Namajunas has a knack for floating to or finding the back of her opponent in transit. And given that Namajunas is undefeated in fights in which she has scored a back-take, this will undoubtedly be the scenario to look for during grappling exchanges.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the former champion, listing Namajunas -235 and Ribas +180 via FanDuel.
Despite not disagreeing with Namajunas being the designated favorite, I suspect that the underdog is a lot livelier than the betting line above indicates.
Even though Ribas’ porous striking defense has Namajunas’ counters and head kicks written all over the forecast, predicting which “Thug Rose” shows up can be a difficult thing in itself.
If Namajunas is dialed in and ready to go out of the gate, then she’s likely live for a finish in rounds 1 and 2. But if Namajunas fails to finish or build major momentum in the first two frames, then I suspect that Ribas’ persistent aggression and grappling presence will pay real dividends down the stretch.
Not only does the smaller octagon of the UFC Apex favor Ribas from a stylistic perspective, but Namajunas has traditionally struggled against superior clinch fighters and wrestlers. It’s not a popular pick, but I’ll take a flier on Ribas to avoid the early knockout and produce a finish on the floor by round 4.
