MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN 39.

UFC on ESPN 39 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card airs on ESPN following prelims on ESPN+.

Rafael dos Anjos (31-13 MMA, 20-11 UFC)

Mar 5, 2022; Las Vegas, Nevada, UNITED STATES; Rafael Dos Anjos celebrates after defeating Renato Moicano (not pictured) during UFC 272 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Staple info:

• Height: 5’8″ Age: 37 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 70″

• Last fight: Decision win over Renato Moicano (March 5, 2022)

• Camp: RDA Academy/Nova Uniao (Brazil)

• Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai

• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC lightweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple Brazilian jiu-jitsu accolades
+ 5 KO victories
+ 10 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ Disciplined pace and pressure
+ Improved boxing
+ Hard and accurate Thai kicks
^ Variates well to the body
+ Good takedowns against the fence
^ 14-3 when scoring at least one
+ Strong positional grappler
^ Smashes and passes effectively
+ Solid getup ability

Rafael Fiziev (11-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC)

Aug 7, 2021; Houston, Texas, USA; Rafael Fiziev (blue gloves) reacts to fight against Bobby Green (red gloves) during UFC 265 at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Staple info:

• Height: 5’8″ Age: 29 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 71.5″

• Last fight: TKO win over Brad Riddell (Dec. 4, 2021)

• Camp: Tiger Muay Thai/Kill Cliff FC (Thailand/Florida)

• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing

• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Multiple muay Thai accolades
+ National champion in combat sambo
+ National champion in hand-to-hand combat
+ 6 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Good head movement
^ Slips and rips/counters in combination
+ Hard and accurate Thai kicks
^ Variates well to the body
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Solid strikes and takedown defense
+ Serviceable submission grappling ability

Point of interest: Muay Thai maelstrom

Aug 7, 2021; Houston, Texas, USA; Bobby Green (red gloves) fights Rafael Fiziev (blue gloves) during UFC 265 at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The main event in Las Vegas features a showdown between two aggressive lightweights who are very familiar with the art of eight limbs.

An inherent pressure fighter, [autotag]Rafael dos Anjos[/autotag] will steadily stalk his opponents, working behind prodding jabs and feints until finding an opportunity to unleash his patent power shots. Whether dos Anjos is variating hard left hands or kicks to the head and body, he usually counterbalances his attack with a dangerous right hook up high.

Accustomed to having to slip-and-rip on taller opposition, dos Anjos does well at following his opponent’s strike retractions back into the pocket – a place where he can use his power to bomb from below.

Dos Anjos has also improved on his head movement and boxing fundamentals since his stint with noted striking coach Jason Parillo, further improving the flow of his overall offense. And if dos Anjos finds his way into the clinch, the former champion seamlessly frames for knees and elbows while maintaining a strong posture.

That said, dos Anjos will need to stay defensively alert in all phases when facing a striking threat like [autotag]Rafael Fiziev[/autotag].

Demonstrating superb countering instincts from multiple ranges, Fiziev has a knack for turning defense into offense. Whether he is slipping to the left or right, “Ataman” is good about returning hard hooks and kicks in combination.

Like many Russian and Eastern European kickboxers, Fiziev is very fluent off of his lead size, often punctuating the exchanges with either left hooks to the head or hard Thai kicks to the body. The 29-year-old will also sneak in quick inside leg kicks off of parries to further disrupt his opposition, but is more than happy to sit back and hack at any limb that becomes available.

Like many muay Thai stylists, Fiziev shows solid sensibilities inside of the clinch, particularly when it comes to finding knees and elbows. Still, I’m not sure how offensively-minded Fiziev will be in these spaces given the takedowns that will likely be on dos Anjos’ mind.

Point of interest: Potential grappling threats

Mar 5, 2022; Las Vegas, Nevada, UNITED STATES; Rafael Dos Anjos (red gloves) fights Renato Moicano (blue gloves) during UFC 272 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Considering where the biggest on-paper discrepancy lies between these two, I would not be shocked to see dos Anjos pursue takedowns early and often.

Ever since his closely contested encounter with Gleison Tibau back in the day, we have seen dos Anjos slowly but surely close the gaps in his wrestling ability.

Adding in a level-changing takedown game that fits nicely into his cage corralling sensibilities, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has proven to be a full-fledged threat. Defensively, dos Anjos has improved his fundamentals from underhooks to hip positioning, as well as wielding an upgraded urgency to his getup game.

Should dos Anjos end up on his back, he’s far from a slouch. The 18-year pro will offer up legitimate threats from kimura sweeps to submissions that Fiziev will need to be aware of so that he doesn’t fall victim to the positional-based player.

Luckily for Fiziev, he also has a background in combat sambo that compliments his muay Thai (especially in transition).

Already strong from the clinch, Fiziev shows solid counter grappling instincts in close. From competent whizzers and underhooks to a good sense for his hips, the seven-year pro has proven difficult to take down thus far in his UFC career.

Although Fiziev shows little interest in pursuing ground fights for prolonged periods of time, he doesn’t seem afraid to shake things up with a trip or takedown of his own. Fiziev is also good about scoring opportunistic strikes in transit, particularly when it comes to elbows off of the breaks.

Should Fiziev successfully stuff the takedown attempts of dos Anjos, then expect to see the native of Kyrgyzstan punish the former champ with similar tactics that Leon Edwards used. But if dos Anjos is able to ground Fiziev and meaningfully make him work, then things could get interesting as the fight wears on.

Point of interest: Odds and opinions

Mar 5, 2022; Las Vegas, Nevada, UNITED STATES; Rafael Dos Anjos celebrates after defeating Renato Moicano (not pictured) during UFC 272 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

The oddsmakers and public are siding with the younger fighter, listing Fiziev -220 and dos Anjos +170 via Tipico Sportsbook.

Between the age difference at hand to the legit skills of Fiziev, seeing the product of Kyrgyzstan favored comes as no surprise here. We’ve witnessed the miles catch up to many veterans as of late, so there’s a decent possibility that we see dos Anjos take a rough loss this Saturday.

However, as I tend to do, I find myself siding with the old veteran for one last ride to glory.

Fiziev is obviously the harder-hitting athlete between these two, but his lack of five-round experience could seriously cost him in the pacing department. Add in the factor of the smaller octagon, and I believe that this battlefield better suits dos Anjos from a stylistic standpoint.

Unless Fiziev is able to seriously hurt dos Anjos within the first few rounds, then I suspect the former champ’s pace and pressure will create openings for him to pull away down the stretch. And though winning on the cards is probably the most plausible path for the Brazilian, I have a sneaking suspicion that dos Anjos scores a head-and-arm choke by the fourth.

Prediction: Dos Anjos inside the distance

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