UFC betting: How to attack Cory Sandhagen-Rob Font main event
The bantamweight division has recently found a home headlining the UFC’s Fight Night cards. The depth of the division makes it a perfect fit to consistently churn out quality, meaningful matchups to keep us interested between pay-per-view events. Saturday night in Nashville, No. 7 Rob Font challenges budding title contender Cory Sandhagen, who's ranked No. 4. The fight is technically at a catchweight (140 pounds) as Font steps in on short notice for the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov, who was forced to withdraw due to a shoulder injury. While Nurmagomedov’s absence took a bit of steam out of the highly anticipated main event, Font proved in his last win, a first-round knockout of Adrian Yanez, that it would be a mistake to overlook the 36-year-old veteran.
Money continues to back Sandhagen as the clear favorite, pushing his current odds up to -350 at BetMGM, while you can bet Font as a sizable dog at +260. Font has won each of his last three fights in which he closed as the betting underdog dating back to December 2018. Does he have one more upset left in the tank, or will Sandhagen take a step closer to earning another title shot?
Cory Sandhagen (-350) vs. Rob Font (+260)
Sandhagen is a handful for anyone in the world at 135 pounds. He has an impressive 9-3 record in the UFC. The current bantamweight champion, Aljamain Sterling, is the only person to finish Sandhagen. As strong as Sandhagen is, I’m never in a big rush to lay -350 in an MMA fight, even if the value lies on that side. There is injury variance, plus if anyone in the rankings has a puncher's chance when the best athletes in the sport are wearing 4-ounce gloves, it's Font. Let’s start with a general view of this fight, and then work our way to the best way to wager on the outcome.
This is a pretty tall order for Font. Sandhagen, 31, is an unorthodox volume striker who excels at weaponizing every limb. Punches, elbows, kicks and knees are flying from crazy angles at all times. Font is more of a traditional boxer, who resides in the pocket and cracks his opponents with a strong jab. The diversity in Sandhagen’s striking should make it pretty easy to invade the pocket and connect. Font absorbs 4.03 significant strikes per minute, and Sandhagen has had strong success against fighters who deploy a more traditional approach in the standup.
Font is taking a lot of damage these days. His decision loss to Marlon Vera left him with multiple facial lacerations and both eyes swollen shut. Font also suffered significant eye swelling in last fight with Adrian Yanez, despite the bout only lasting less than three minutes. Here is why that’s important. In Font’s last two losses, both five-round decisions, he outlanded his opponents by a combined 420-245 significant strikes. He landed 112 more significant strikes in the Vera fight alone — and lost both fights by unanimous decision. Sandhagen’s offensive attacks are going to get home, and it's going to get visibly ugly for Font.
The damage dynamic eliminates the decision as a path to victory, making it even tougher to make a case for the underdog. Layer in the fact that Sandhagen has never been knocked out in 20 professional fights, and putting your money on Font feels a lot like lighting it on fire. If you are determined to fire on Font, his knockout prop is at +750 at Bet MGM. That’s a much better way to approach it than the +260 moneyline. To be clear, I am not in that camp.
My money will be on Sandhagen to win inside the distance. Font has only been finished once in his career (via submission in 2017), but he took a massive amount of punishment in his losses to Vera and Jose Aldo. Sandhagen is a clear step up from those two fighters, and Font’s durability is only going to decrease from this point forward. An important aspect bettors need to be mindful of is that fights continuing are not always in the fighter’s control. Especially when they are wearing the amount of damage I expect Font to endure. There is a real possibility Sandhagen wins via doctor stoppage or the ref waves it off in the later rounds. At plus money, I’d rather be on the side of “The Sandman” scoring the victory before it gets to the judges. Bet: Cory Sandhagen by KO/TKO or submission (+125)
