UFC 296: Quick Picks and Prognostications
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC 296.
UFC 296 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN2 and early prelims on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 5-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 124-84-6
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Bryce Mitchell (-220) vs. Josh Emmett (+176)
Tony Ferguson (+240) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-310)
Shavkat Rakhmonov (-700) vs. Stephen Thompson (+470)
Alexandre Pantoja (-194) vs. Brandon Royval (+156)
The co-main event in Las Vegas features a rematch for the flyweight title between Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, this is a fight that could go in multiple directions.
Forgot how good the legwork was between Pantoja and Royval throughout the initial minutes of the 1st round… the leg lock attempt/entanglement from Royval is fun, but man do I appreciate what Pantoja is trying to do prior with influential insteps and vines as he goes for the back pic.twitter.com/yNnwqvBPtc
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) January 13, 2022
Although it felt like Royval initially had some momentum in their first fight, the countering dynamic of the style match came through as soon as the American exposed his back.
From spinning assaults off the counter to granby rolls in the scrambles, Royval’s entertaining style comes with a cost in the back-take department.
Alexandre Pantoja ground-and-pound 🤌 pic.twitter.com/2zBacuyt9I
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) July 5, 2023
Add in the durability issues that can be present with long and lanky fighters who cut down these lighter-weight classes, and I can’t help but side with Pantoja to retain his title this Saturday.
The pick is Pantoja via TKO in round 3.
Leon Edwards (-170) vs. Colby Covington (+138)
The main event for UFC 296 features a welterweight title fight between Leon Edwards and Colby Covington.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, Covington is a much better fighter than he’s typically given credit for.
#UFC296 features a southpaw v. southpaw matchup at the top between Leon Edwards and Colby Covington…
• Edwards is 4-1 against UFC-level lefties (W: RDA, Sobotka, Barberena, Diaz; L: Silva)
• Covington is 5-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (W: Barberena, Lawler, Kim, RDA, Maia)
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) December 13, 2023
That said, I suspect that this is a tougher fight for him than the numbers suggest.
Not only has Covington’s pressure game appeared to regress in recent years, but fighters who can contend with him inside of the wrestling realm have traditionally been his toughest fights.
Add in the fact that left hands and bodywork appear to be his common culprit, and I forecast Edwards forcing a stoppage via strikes by the fourth round.
