UFC 290 betting: Robert Whittaker the play to slow Dricus du Plessis' momentum
LAS VEGAS — Robert Whittaker has long been one of the greatest mixed martial artists in the world. He's 14-2 since June 28, 2014, losing only to middleweight champion Israel Adesanya in that span.
It's a time when Whittaker has beaten, among others, Uriah Hall, Derek Brunson, Yoel Romero, Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza, Darren Till, Jared Cannonier, Kelvin Gastelum and Marvin Vettori. That's a career's worth of significant victories, and he's still fighting as if he's in his prime.
But Whittaker is a low-key guy who doesn't hype himself and often gets overlooked as a result. On Saturday at UFC 290 at T-Mobile Arena, he'll face Dricus du Plessis, a surging middleweight who has all of a sudden become a prominent standout.
Du Plessis is 19-2 overall and 5-0 in the UFC. He stopped Brunson late in the second round in their bout at UFC 285 in March. Now, he's taking the huge step up to fight Whittaker.
Whittaker is a solid -400 favorite at BetMGM over du Plessis, who hopes to parlay a win over Whittaker into a title shot against Adesanya.
Whittaker, though, is no gatekeeper. He remains at the top of his game and is vastly more well-rounded than du Plessis. Du Plessis is an aggressive, attacking fighter and there's a chance that he could catch Whittaker with something and finish him.
Whittaker rarely makes mistakes, has a good enough chin to bail him out if he does and has the ring IQ that few in the sport own.
I'm going to lay the -400 and play Whittaker to win. I suspect he'll be beating du Plessis by countering him expertly and taking advantage of his mistakes. Whittaker by submission is +1100, but I think there's a chance Whittaker hurts du Plessis with a counter strike he doesn't see and finishes him with a rear naked choke.
If the odds on this were lower, I wouldn't play it, but given it's +1100, I'll also play Whittaker by submission and lay a half-unit on that. Each unit in my imaginary bankroll is $100, so this would mean I'll risk $50 for a potential payout of $550.
Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez a coin toss
Alexander Volkanovski will defend the featherweight championship in the main event Saturday against interim champ Yair Rodriguez and is a solid -350 favorite to win and keep his belt. Rodriguez is +265.
The over-under is 4.5 rounds, with the over at even money and under at -130.
Rodriguez has great strikes that come from all angles. He's quick and hits hard and is a great combination puncher. Volkanovski's boxing has steadily improved — and after going 15 rounds in three wins over the legendary Max Holloway, how could it not? — and he'll be able to hold his own on the feet.
The big edge is in Volkanovski's grappling, where he has far more ways to win.
Rodriguez's kicks are next level, though, and he's going to likely throw a lot to try to take the champion's legs from him. If Rodriguez is able to take advantage of the kicks, that throws the tide of the fight significantly in his favor.
The line on this is far too wide, in my opinion, and I expect Volkanovski to come out as a 9-5 favorite or perhaps 2-1. But at nearly 4-1, he's a tough play.
I'm thus going to take the +265 and bet that Rodriguez will win using his kicks. No one, though, is tougher and more determined than Volkanovski, so I think this fight goes all the way. Thus, I'll bet even money that it goes over 4.5 rounds.
Can Moreno turn it around?
Flyweight champion Brandon Moreno is a -200 favorite to defeat Alexandre Pantoja, who is +170. Pantoja is 2-0 in bouts with Moreno, though.
Significantly, they haven't fought in five years, when Pantoja won a decision when they fought in Chile. Moreno is a vastly different and more complete fighter than he was then.
In a bout that well could be Fight of the Night, I like Moreno to win, so I'll lay the -200 and take the champ.
Other plays for UFC 290:
• Bo Nickal is -200 to win by first-round submission over late replacement Val Woodburn. I'll lay the money and take Nickal to win by sub in the first.
• I will lay the -285 and play Jalin Turner to defeat Dan Hooker, who is +240.
• I'll take Robbie Lawler, who is +200, to win over Niko Price, who is a -240 favorite. The bout is the finale of Lawler's illustrious career, and my sense is that though he's been struggling recently, going 1-5 in his last six, he'll wring every last bit out of his body to go out on top in this one.
