UFC 277 betting guide: Pick Amanda Nunes to beat Julianna Peña and reclaim bantamweight belt
Amanda Nunes hadn’t lost in more than seven years until Julianna Peña delivered a stunning second-round submission by chokehold in December.
Nunes, 34, was the UFC’s two-belt champion before she was knocked off her bantamweight throne. Could she be dealt her second defeat in barely more than seven months Saturday night when she rematches Peña in the UFC 277 main event at Dallas’ American Airlines Center?
“I don’t think I can pick Amanda Nunes losing to anyone, let alone twice,” MMA Junkie’s Mike Bohn said. “But these things happen.
"We've seen it with all of the greats . . . they find that foe (they can't beat)."
In this week’s fight betting guide, we’ll look at the most compelling matches on the UFC pay-per-view card (ESPN+, 10 p.m. ET) and assess the Showtime-televised boxing card at Brooklyn’s Barclays Center, headed by former two-division champion Danny Garcia versus once-beaten former title challenger Jose Benavidez Jr.
UFC 277 main event: Julianna Peña (12-4) vs. Amanda Nunes (21-5)
Up for grabs: Peña’s bantamweight belt
Tipico Sportsbook odds: Nunes (-290), Peña (+220); Over/under rounds 2.5 (under -116)
Nunes was stopped in December after surprisingly getting the worse of a heavy-handed exchange with Peña. Nunes said she was injured entering the fight, but did not pull out because she had already withdrawn once before due to COVID-19.
Since then, she's stopped working with her longtime coaches and trainers at American Top Team and opened her own gym.
“I honestly thought it was going to be just another title defense, and one of the easier ones at that," Bohn said. "But Julianna Peña obviously had a different plan. You could see it wasn’t the same Amanda. With all the things she’s said, paired with the fact her cardio looked worse, there are many things to pick out to say Amanda had an off night.”
LAST TIME: Julianna Peña submits Amanda Nunes in second round to win UFC women's bantamweight title in stunner
While Bohn hails Peña’s tenacity, he expressed concern for how she can fare in another toe-to-toe battle.
“As long as Amanda doesn’t get too crazy in there, I see Amanda wearing her down,” said Bohn, who added Nunes is somewhat “playing with house money” here because she also wears the featherweight belt.
"What they both bring to the table is profound and whoever has more determination here wins,” he said.
The picks: Separate bets: Nunes to win; over 2.5 rounds.
Brandon Moreno (19-6-2) vs. Kai Kara-France (24-9)
Up for grabs: Interim flyweight title
Odds: Moreno (-220), Kara-France (+170); Over/under rounds 4.5 (over -180)
With champion Deiveson Figueiredo and the UFC at odds over his delay in returning from an injury, Mexico’s former champion Moreno lands another opportunity for a title shot in a rematch of a 2019 fight that went the distance. Moreno won by unanimous decision.
“A rematch of a fight that was very close and competitive and went five rounds,” Bohn said. “These guys are both good scramblers, both extremely fast. I don’t think a lot of guys thought Kai Kara-France would be here after his slow start, but he’s put it together (4-1 with three bonuses since the Moreno loss), and this would be his biggest game changer.”
Moreno’s switch to join well-regarded trainer James Krause in Kansas should provide the decisive margin here.
“Moreno has taken his game to a new level in the past few years, and I’m curious how he’ll do leaving Mexico to train with Krause, who’s really singing his praises,” Bohn said. “Brandon Moreno is a better fighter than Kara-France. I see it going five rounds with a lot of exchanges and a lot of scrambles – a fun, competitive fight-of-the-night that Moreno likely wins 49-46.”
The pick: Parlay Moreno to the over 4.5 rounds.
No. 5 Derrick Lewis (26-9) vs. No. 11 Sergei Pavlovich (15-1), heavyweights
Odds: Pavlovich (-140), Lewis (+110); Over-under rounds 1.5 (under -165)
Fan-favorite Lewis, 37, could be getting used here as a big name to help prop up the attention on Russia’s Pavlovich, 30, who’s won by three consecutive first-round knockouts and claimed two performance-of-the-night bonuses.
Lewis, who holds the UFC record for most knockout wins (13) , has been stopped twice in his last three bouts.
“Derrick Lewis is literally willing to fight anyone, saying, ‘As long as they pay me good, I’ll show up,’” Bohn said. “Usually, these are the kinds of fights he wins, getting through some adversity. But he is older, he’s been through a lot of tough fights, and I wonder if we’ve reached the downward slide of Derrick Lewis here. This fight will tell us.”
The pick: Sergei Pavlovich to win.
No. 4 Magomed Ankalaev (17-1) vs. No. 5 Anthony Smith (36-16), light heavyweights
Odds: Ankalaev (-550), Smith (+370), over-under rounds 2.5 (over -155)
Russian Ankalaev hasn’t lost since his UFC debut in 2018, a stretch that included four knockouts and two bonuses.
Former title challenger Smith, 34, is a bona fide gatekeeper as Ankalaev seeks to ascend toward a title shot at champion Jiří Procházka.
“I’d take a flyer on Anthony Smith. I see his odds getting pretty high, depending on what book you’re using,” Bohn said. “Ankalaev has been on a sensational roll. Some people think he’s the future of the division, a future champion with eight wins in a row. But Anthony Smith has experienced it all. He’s really dangerous with finishes.
“If Ankalaev makes a single mistake, he can take advantage. He needs to be on point, but Smith is a ‘dog worth looking at here. That number’s outrageous. The margin for error is so slim in this division.”
The pick: Smith to win.
BOXING
Main event: Danny Garcia (36-3) vs. Jose Benavidez Jr. (27-1-1), light-middleweights
TV card: Adam Kownacki (20-2) vs. Ali Eren Demirezen (16-1), heavyweights; Gary Antuanne Russell (15-0) vs. Rances Barthelemy (29-1-1), junior-welterweights
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Odds: Garcia (-700), Benavidez (+500); Demirezen (-175), Kownacki (+155); Russell (-1500), Barthelemy (+850)
After a lucrative run of Premier Boxing Champions main events that included the first Barclays Center main event, Garcia moves to light-middleweight against the Phoenix product who’s never been the same since being shot in the leg.
Benavidez, the older brother of unbeaten former super-middleweight champion David Benavidez, aspires to participate in a doubleheader that would feature him against undisputed 154-pound champion Jermell Charlo and David versus unbeaten middleweight champion Jermall Charlo.
MORE: José Benavidez Jr.'s next fight could affect course of Phoenix product's boxing career
But Philadelphia’s disciplined Garcia, 34, is hopeful after a year-plus-long layoff that he can gain a victory that makes him a contender to fight another champion, whether that be the Charlo-Tim Tszyu winner or unbeaten welterweight champions Terence Crawford or Errol Spence Jr.
Spence defeated Garcia by unanimous decision in December 2020.
Brooklyn’s personable Kownacki returns to the ring for the first time since the second of his consecutive TKO losses to Robert Helenius and finds himself as the slight underdog to the Turkish native fighting out of Germany.
Russell (15-0, 15 KOs), brother of former featherweight world champion Gary Russell Jr., recently suffered through the death of their trainer-father and is tasked with the complex test of trying to knock out Cuba's former lightweight champion .
The picks: Garcia by decision; Kownacki by ninth-round knockout; Russell by eighth-round knockout.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: UFC 277 card, betting: Amanda Nunes over Julianna Peña for belt
