UFC 272 betting: Emotions play key role in Colby Covington-Jorge Masvidal grudge match
LAS VEGAS — MMA math, as they call it, doesn’t work this way. It’s easy to say that A beat B and B beat C so automatically, A should beat C.
That’s a short-sighted way of looking at a complex sport that offers so many ways to win, or lose, and features emotional humans.
Emotions figure to play a large part in determining who wins Saturday’s main event at UFC 272 at T-Mobile Arena between Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal.
BetMGM has made Covington a -350 favorite, with Masvidal coming back at +250.
Covington had a pair of nip-and-tuck battles with welterweight champion Kamaru Usman. Masvidal was knocked out by Usman in the second and dropped a decision when he took a bout on short notice.
It would be short-sighted to pick Covington over Masvidal based on that, particularly because combined, the two are 0-4 in fights with Usman.
But it’s also overlooking Masvidal’s long history of success, a career which includes wins over the likes of Nate Diaz, Ben Askren, Darren Till, Donald Cerrone, Michael Chiesa, Joe Lauzon, Jake Ellenberger and James Krause, among others.
The most important factor in this fight is not Covington’s elite MMA wrestling and cardio or Masvidal’s slick striking. It’s going to be the emotions the fighters bring with them to the cage.
So often, fights are promoted by saying the fighters hate each other. Rarely is that true, and you often see their true feelings when the fight ends and they embrace.
It was probably true when Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier fought, and when Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz faced off. And it’s definitely true in the case of Covington and Masvidal, who are former roommates and best friends now on the outs.
There is a bitterness between them that comes through when you speak to them. Masvidal doesn’t like Covington and vice versa.
Fighting angry is usually not good and leads to mistakes. Masvidal thrives on emotions and has been able to channel it in his favor in the past. He had a war of words with Askren before their fight, and he came through with one of the most spectacular finishes in UFC history and the birth of the famous line, “Super necessary.”
But can he control himself enough to fight a disciplined fight against Covington, who knows his style better than anyone and knows how to push his buttons?
Covington’s advantages in the fight are his cardio, which is arguably the best in the UFC and at least near the top, and his wrestling. His MMA wrestling is so dangerous, it opens up his striking game.
Betting Covington to win requires a huge outlay that I don’t want to take in this fight. Masvidal has the ability to win this fight with his hands, and his flying knee against Askren proved his versatility and his unpredictability, but he faces a large uphill task against his old buddy dealing with his wrestling.
That leaves me to bet on Covington to win by decision. Once BetMGM puts up its prop bets, Covington by decision should be somewhere around even money to as high as 6-5. That’s a far more palatable number.
So I’ll play two units on Covington to win by decision.
Other wagers for UFC 272
• Marina Rodriguez at -275 to win over Xiaonan Yan.
• I’m going to take Alex Oliveira at +260 to defeat Kevin Holland. Oliveira is more experienced and better all-around and it comes as a value play getting him at nearly 3-1.
• Edson Barboza at +135 to win over Bryce Mitchell. If Mitchell gets the fight down, it’s almost certainly over, but Mitchell hasn’t faced anyone with the kicking and the pace of Barboza.
