Tramel's ScissorTales: Answering questions about Colorado's move to the Big 12
Twelve summers after Colorado left the Big 12 for the Pac-12, the Buffaloes are boomeranging. They are turning prodigals, coming back to the league they left after the 2010-11 athletic season.
Seems more like 112 years.
But that’s no never mind. The Big 12 hopes Colorado’s return sparks more defections from the Pac-12. You’ve got questions, we’ve got (some) answers.
More: Two years after being left for dead, the Big 12 surges back, plundering Colorado from Pac-12
Will any other school follow Colorado?
Seems likely, but you never know.
The Pac-12 possibilities always seemed in defined order. Colorado had high interest. Arizona had some interest. Arizona State had little interest. Utah had no interest. Washington and Oregon were a gleam in Brett Yormark’s eye.
The Pac-12 has displayed a united front in the last eight months, since the Big 12 jumped the Pac in obtaining a broadcasting contract that at least allows the Big 12 members to maintain their quality of living and squeezed the Pac in its hopes of the same.
But one brick out of the wall creates instability. Pac-12 members now must be looking around the table, wondering if any other members will flee.
The Big 12 has made little secret of its desire to pull in the four-corner schools – Colorado, Arizona, ASU and Utah – to produce a 16-team league. And that still could happen.
But with the Pac-12's media rights still a shaky situation and with Colorado out the door, perhaps Oregon and Washington are rethinking their status.
Both the Ducks and Huskies long for the Big Ten, for good reason, but is that feasible? The Big Ten has no promise from Fox to up the payout for prospective new members. The Big 12 does, from ESPN and Fox, so long as the new members are Power Five Conference schools.
If the four-corner schools come, UW and Oregon would be left with the shell of a conference. Easy to win and make the College Football Playoff, but lacking a TV contract worth beans, in a conference with vastly-diminished status.
Could Yormark, the Big 12’s superstar commissioner, be making a pitch to Oregon and Washington? Only if he’s smart. And if you haven’t noticed, he’s smart.
If the Ducks and Huskies jump, Utah almost surely would, too.
But whether it’s Oregon and Washington, the four-corner schools or a mixture of both, they can’t seem to rely on the Pac-12 TV contract being amenable. If it was amenable, the schools already would have signed on.
More: Is Colorado coming back to the Big 12? Here's how Oklahoma State football fared against them.
Can the Big 12 stay at 13 for now?
Colorado can come to the Big 12 in 2024 without penalty – no exit fee. If the other Pac prospects don’t jump, could the Big 12 play the waiting game and stay at 13?
Yes, but the Big 12 would have to adjust. Big 12 football can’t play a nine-game conference schedule with 13 members. Eight or 10, yes. But not nine. The math doesn’t work.
Could the Big 12 members each get out of a non-conference game and go to 10 league games? Yes, but it wouldn’t be easy.
Could the Big 12 members each add a non-conference game and play eight league games? Yes, but it wouldn’t be ideal.
More: Colorado's move to the Big 12 jeopardizes the Pac-12's very survival
Does Yormark have some negotiating chips to play?
Yes. His obvious fascination with Connecticut suddenly means something. Talking to Pac-12 schools, Yormark can dangle three openings.
The Big 12 won’t expand past 16, I don’t believe, because the extra network funding isn’t promised beyond 16.
If Pac-12 prospects play hard to get, Yormark can mention UConn, warning the Pac schools that the Big 12 has other options, and I wouldn’t want to play poker with Yormark.
His imagination and salesmanship is broad enough to persuade skeptical Big 12 administrators that UConn would work. If the Pac-12 calls Yormark’s bluff and he indeed invites Connecticut, suddenly only two seats are left on the lifeboat.
More: College sports realignment is a chaotic, head-spinning trend in which change the only constant
Can the Pac-12 survive with nine?
No, not long term. But getting back to 10 members would not be difficult. All kinds of Mountain West Conference members would be additions that would approach Colorado’s status of recent years.
The Pac-12 has totally screwed up the San Diego State courtship – the Aztecs seemed certain to be Pac-bound, until an about-face a few weeks ago. Now it will cost San Diego State $34 million to join the Pac-12 before 2025.
Could the Pac pivot and invite Southern Methodist? Sure, but SMU has a small fan base and would be 1,000 miles from the nearest Pac-12 school.
Boise State would be by far the best replacement, but academic snobbery prevents the Pac-12 from seeing past its nose.
Colorado State? Nevada-Las Vegas? Sure. The branding wouldn’t be quite the same as Colorado, but CU has been the least-successful Pac-12 program since the Buffs switched league.
Colorado would not be hard to replace. But the Big 12 is getting CU not for what it brings, but for who it could bring.
More: Can the Pac-12 survive? Conference of champions faces murky future after Colorado bolts for Big 12
Five cool things about Colorado
Colorado’s return to the Big 12 means some relatively unimportant but absolutely cool things for the conference:
1. Scenery: The view from Folsom Field is quite fetching. The Flatirons, visible from Folsom Field, are the striking, slanted, reddish-brown sandstone formations that make up a portion of the Rocky Mountain foothills on which Boulder sits. With West Virginia and Brigham Young already in the league, the Big 12 will own the market on mountain views in college football.
2. Mascot: Ralphie the Buffalo running onto the field pregame, with his handlers hanging on for dear life, is a fabulous college football tradition. The Big 12 suddenly has college football’s best live-animal mascot (Ralphie) and best real-person mascot (West Virginia’s Mountaineer).
3. Road trip: From the wild college town of Boulder to the autumn weather in Colorado to the nearby Rocky Mountain haunts of Estes Park and Golden, a long weekend for a CU game is full of things to do.
4. Uniforms: The Big 12 once was adorned with a couple of glorious black-and-gold color schemes. Then Missouri went to the Southeastern Conference and Colorado went to the Pac-12.
Now those great gold-and-black uniforms will be back – and don’t forget the cool silver mixed in.
5. History: Colorado will return to a Big 12 that is missing five of the other 11 schools that formed the league in 1996. And only four schools – OSU, Iowa State, Kansas State and Kansas – remain from Colorado’s Big Eight days.
But still, CU will be a nice bridge back to the historical past. Colorado joined the Big Six Conference in 1948, forming the Big Seven (OSU made it the Big Eight in 1960).
Dal Ward, Sonny Grandelius, Eddie Crowder, Bill Mallory, Bill McCartney. Bunch of good coaches.
Dick and Bob Anderson, Cullen Bryant, Eric Bieniemy, Kanavis McGhee and Alfred Williams, Joe Garten, Deon Figures, Michael Westbrook, Rashaun Salaam, Chris Hudson, Andre Gurode. Bunch of great ballplayers.
Welcome back, Colorado. Can’t say we necessarily missed you, but we’re definitely glad you’ve returned.
More: Colorado regents unanimously approve plan to leave Pac-12 Conference, join Big 12 in 2024
Colorado football non-conference schedule opens
Conference realignment always leads to non-conference scheduling problems. Here’s what Colorado has scheduled:
2024: CU plays at Nebraska, which is no problem.
2025-26: CU plays at Houston in ‘25, then hosts Houston in ‘26. No problem for CU, since the Buffs have scheduled quite aggressively. Colorado also plays Georgia Tech in 2025, plus Georgia Tech and Northwestern in 2026. CU can drop Houston and go find a lower-status opponent. And it might not be a problem for Houston – the Cougars also play Boise State in 2025 (the Broncos are good enough for the Big 12 to waive the Power Five-foe requirement) and Utah in 2026. Now, if the Utes come aboard...
2027-28: CU plays Kansas State and Northwestern in ‘27, K-State and Florida in ‘28. So Colorado can drop KSU and be fine. But K-State will be left with holes.
2029: CU plays Florida. So no problem.
2030-31: The Buffs play Missouri both years, which is cool, and also have SMU scheduled both years, for what that’s worth.
2032-34: Colorado has openings all three seasons for Power Five opponents.
2036-37: CU has OSU scheduled both seasons, so both the Buffs and Cowboys will be on the market. If you’re thinking what I’m thinking, OU has Clemson scheduled in 2036 but is open in 2037. Bedlam, anyone?
More: Tramel's ScissorTales: Which new Big 12 coordinators will have greatest impact in 2023?
The Lists: College football’s top quarterbacks
The Sports Daily has produced its projected top 10 quarterbacks for the 2023 college football season. Spoiler alert – no Big 12 QBs are represented, with only a scant few SEC quarterbacks.
10. Frank Harris, Texas-San Antonio: Threw for 32 touchdowns last season, rushed for 602 yards.
9. K.J. Jefferson, Arkansas: Is he better than Kansas’ Jalon Daniels? Seems unlikely, though Jefferson ran for 640 yards with a 24:5 touchdown to interception ratio.
8. Jayden Daniels, Louisiana State: The only major-college quarterback to rush for at least 1,000 yards last season.
7. Jordan Travis, Florida State: Another 24:5 TD to interception ratio, with the highest Power Five Conference grade from Pro Football Focus.
6. Cade Klubnik, Clemson: Mostly a projection, not based on production as a freshman. Klubnik did average 340.5 total yards in the Orange Bowl and the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game.
5. Sam Hartman, Notre Dame: A five-year player at Wake Forest, Hartman brings star status to the Fighting Irish, with 12,967 career passing yards and 110 TD passes.
4. Bo Nix, Oregon: Auburn fans will have a hard time believing it, but Nix was quite good with the Ducks, throwing for 3,593 yards, with a 29:7 ratio.
3. Drake Maye, North Carolina: The pro scouts love Maye, who threw for 4,321 yards with a 38:7 ratio.
2. Michael Penix Jr., Washington: The transfer from Indiana was superb for the Huskies last season, throwing for 4,641 yards, with a 31:8 ratio.
1. Caleb Williams, Southern Cal: Won (and broke) OU hearts in 2021, then won the Heisman in 2022. A 42:5 ratio with 4,537 passing yards. Lincoln Riley hasn’t lost his touch with quarterbacks.
More: Tramel's ScissorTales: No surprise that UCF, BYU will lead Big 12 football in mileage
Mailbag: SEC pods
While Big 12 expansion rules the day, OU fans haven’t forgotten another hot topic. SEC scheduling.
Ragan: What happened to the idea of pods? Why Florida (as a permanent OU opponent). Would it improve recruiting in Florida?”
Tramel: Pods were necessary only if the SEC was going to use rotating divisions. Which the SEC is not.
Instead, the SEC seems committed to permanent rivals; three if the league adapts a nine-game league schedule, and one if the league goes with an eight-game league schedule.
OU’s natural rivals are Texas, Missouri, Arkansas and Texas A&M. But A&M and Arkansas are more historic rivals for Texas than for OU, while also being more historic rivals for each other. That leaves OU with Texas and Mizzou, needing one more.
Florida seems the best fit, since the Gators also need another rival, and both need someone from the upper tier of the SEC, since the conference appears committed to giving the upper crust of the league two annual games against fellow traditional heavyweights.
Berry Tramel: Berry can be reached at 405-760-8080 or at btramel@oklahoman.com. He can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including FM-98.1. Support his work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Big 12 football: Will Colorado be joined by other Pac-12 members?
