Top 10 fantasy moves of the MLB offseason: Stars finally have new homes
There were some historic moves made this offseason, headlined by the signings of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.
But what do these moves mean for 2019 fantasy baseball? Let's run down the top 10 of the offseason!
1. Bryce Harper - Philadelphia Phillies
If waiting for Manny Machado to sign was like waiting for “Avengers: Endgame” to come out, waiting for Bryce Harper was like waiting for the final season of “Game of Thrones.” The Harper saga — which included more than a few wild offers — finally ended, however, when the Philadelphia Phillies (more on them later) signed the 26 year old to a whopping 13-year, $330 million deal. No-trade rights. No opt-out opportunities. Just straight cash money — the biggest contract in MLB history (until Mike Trout’s time comes around, lol).
Bryce Harper is arguably the most recognizable name in baseball, at least to casual fans. His potential is seemingly limitless. The Phillies are paying for what he’s done, what he’s doing, and what he can do. No arguing that. For fantasy purposes, there’s not much to say about Harper that hasn’t been said before. He finished as the outfielder with the most points in standard-scoring Yahoo leagues in 2018. Sure, he strikes out more than you’d like, but he makes up for it with walks, home runs, and hits. He’s staying in the division he’s called home his entire career but moving to a team that has done everything in its power to create a championship offense. He currently has a high-second round ADP, and you can make the argument of drafting him in the late-first too, depending on your league.
2. Manny Machado - San Diego Padres
Machado signed a 10-year, $300 million deal with the Padres — the second largest free-agent contract of all time behind Harper’s. Long rumored to be headed to a larger market (Yankees, Phillies) or a team with Machado connections (the White Sox, who seemingly signed and hired everyone from Machado’s brother-in-law to his middle school teacher in an effort to lure him to the Windy City), the stud infielder instead went to the team that offered him the most lucrative deal.
And while the move may be amazing for Machado’s finances, it’s hard to paint a 100%-positive picture of his fantasy outlook. He’s moving to a team without much protection in the lineup and to a stadium that has sapped right-handed power for years (although it hasn’t been as egregious of late). All that said, Machado is still Machado. He’s hit 30+ home runs the last four years straight and hasn’t hit under 80 RBI since his injury-shortened 2014 season. His OPS+ has only been below 110 (yet still above 100) three times in his career, including his rookie season (when it was 98). Basically, there’s a reason he got his $300 mil. That said, expect his ADP (currently around the middle-to-late second round) to take a small hit now that he’s a Padre, but he should still put up top tier numbers across the board.
[Positional Rankings: Top 300 Overall | C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | P]
3. Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew Miller - St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals were able to trade for a one-year rental of Paul Goldschmidt, but as we've seen before, Goldy can do a lot in one year. He's been a perennial All-Star since 2013. Oh, and he's been a threat to hit 30+ home runs and 100 RBI since 2013, too. Don't expect much to change on the fantasy front for Goldschmidt — he's as elite as it gets when it comes to fantasy first basemen.
Andrew Miller possesses one of the more devastating repertoires a pitcher can have — including an utterly wipeout slider — but he didn't show it off as much in 2018 due to an injury-riddled season. He struggled as the Indians set-up man behind Cody Allen, posting his highest ERA (4.24) since 2011 in just 37 games. That said, consider the following: the big reliever posted EIGHT consecutive sub-1.00 WHIP seasons before 2018. Miller will return to a closer role with the Cards, making him a fantasy draft pick with immense bounce-back potential.
4. David Robertson/Jean Segura/J.T. Realmuto - Phillies
Let's make it plain: the Phillies are all-in on making the World Series. Realmuto was fantasy's most consistent catcher last season, and will now join a potent offense without much competition behind the plate. That said, Philly gave up quite a bit for his services. Jorge Alfaro is coming into his own as a catcher, while Sixto Sanchez presents a future ace-type pitcher for the Marlins. Sanchez has some injury history, but dynasty leaguers have to hold onto the hope that he reaches his Pedro Martinez-like potential.
Jean Segura is a top-15 ranked fantasy shortstop this season after an All-Star campaign in 2018. He struck out just 69 times in 586 at-bats last season, and will have great protection in the Phillies' lineup. He finished as the 8th-best fantasy shortstop in 2018.
D-Rob has been one of the more consistent relievers in baseball, but his fantasy value was bottlenecked by the depth in the Yankees' monstrous bullpen. That problem could follow him to Philly. Robertson is expected to split late-game relief work with upstart youngster Seranthony Dominguez. Unless something changes, that puts somewhat of a cap on his ability to give his fantasy owners saves. But if Dominguez were to struggle/go down, Robertson would slot into the closer role.
5. Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano - New York Mets
There's making a splash, and then there's this. New Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen sent Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, and Gerson Bautista to the Seattle Mariners for the duo of Diaz and Cano. The Mariners are undoubtedly trying to rebuild their weak farm system while simultaneously unloading Cano's contract — they succeeded.
That said, Kelenic, even with his uber-star potential, is at least a couple of years away from making a real impact in both fantasy and reality.
Nonetheless, it's a win-now move for the Mets. Cano — even at 36, recovering from knee surgery, and with a suspension on his record — will be a premier hitter in this lineup with a history of success in NY. He hit .303 in just 80 games last season. That said, for those expecting the effortless 40-double, 100-RBI slugger he once was, disappointment might be in the cards. As long as he stays healthy, however, he will be a solid source of hits and RBI in fantasy.
Diaz was arguably the best closer in baseball last season with 57 saves and a hilariously low 0.791 WHIP. He is expected to be the first closer off fantasy boards. Nuff said.
[Batter up: Join or create a 2019 Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for free today]
6. James Paxton - New York Yankees
The Yankees now have two strikeout artists at the top of their rotation in Luis Severino and James Paxton. They had to give up their top pitching prospect in Justus Sheffield to obtain the services of Paxton, however. Sheffield has proven to have the stuff necessary to succeed in the majors, and the rebuilding Mariners will probably call him up sooner rather than later (dynasty leaguers, expect Sheffield to have a real impact in 2019).
If Paxton remains healthy, fantasy managers who draft him can expect to get the usual elite strikeout numbers (he had 208 punch-outs in 160 1/3 innings in 2018). That said, he's moving from one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks to a top-five hitter-friendly one. Don't be surprised if more of those heaters than usual leave the ballpark in 2019. All told, with Luis Severino on the shelf with shoulder inflammation and his season debut in doubt, Paxton could shoulder the load for a Yanks team with World Series aspirations.
7. Patrick Corbin - Washington Nationals
The soon-to-be 30-year-old Corbin came into his own last year with an 11-7 record. He also accumulated a 11.1 K/9 ratio; the highest of his career. He finished as the 11th-best starter in fantasy.
The main fantasy question with Corbin is, will he be the same pitcher in a Nats uniform that he was in Arizona? Nationals Park was the third-highest ranked in terms of park-factor runs in 2018; Chase Field was ranked 11th. But Corbin has a lot of under-the-radar stats working in his favor. For example, opponents had a ground ball rate of 54.0% against him with RISP in 2018 — 3rd-best in the league.
You can probably expect some growing pains with Corbin, but he should remain a solid source of strikeouts and wins as a second-tier fantasy starter on a strong Nationals team.
8. Yasiel Puig - Cincinnati Reds
Yasiel Puig is one of the most exciting, infectious personalities in the game today. He's a highlight waiting to happen. Unfortunately, he hasn't been able to replicate his electrifying 2013 rookie season (.319/.391/.534). He found himself part of a crowded LA outfield in 2018, and ultimately was traded to the Reds as part of a major salary dump on the Dodgers part.
But Puig might be able to rekindle the magic within him in Cincy (the Great American Ball Park finished 4th in park-factor runs in 2018; Dodger stadium was 26th). It'll be a fresh start for one of the game's natural talents, and he will be a focal point in this offense. Puig has serious fantasy bounce-back potential.
9. Charlie Morton - Tampa Bay Rays
The now-35-year-old Charlie Morton came into his own in 2017 with the Astros, and then followed that up with an All-Star campaign in 2018. He elevated his strikeout numbers from 163 in 146 and 2/3 innings in 2017 to 201 in 167 innings in 2018. That said, he had the luxury of playing with a championship caliber team; the Astros provided him with 5.20 runs of support last season.
Things are expected to change somewhat, now that he's with the Rays (Houston was 6th in runs scored in the MLB last season; Tampa Bay was 16th). Morton, however, has good enough stuff to get strikeouts and wins on his own merit (he was the 18th-best starter in fantasy last season). Fantasy gamers who draft him should still probably temper their expectations for another 15-3 season, even if he's gotten better with time — he’s been oft-injured in his career, pitching over 150 innings just three times.
10. Billy Hamilton - Kansas City Royals
Let's get the obvious out of the way: if you draft Billy Hamilton, it's not because you expect a great offensive output. You might not even get a good offensive output. To put it plainly, if you draft Hamilton, you're drafting him for his speed. These are Hamilton's base-stealing numbers from 2014 to 2017: 56, 57, 58, and 59. That number dropped to 34 in 2018 — still elite.
What makes this move so big is that the Royals LOVE to run. Their championship in 2015 was built off sound defense and a commitment to running and stealing the bases. Lest we forget, Kansas City was top-10 in both stolen bases and base-stealing attempts in 2018. Hamilton fits that bill to the tee. Can he steal 60 in 2019?
(Honorable Mentions: AJ Pollock to Dodgers, Yasmani Grandal to Brewers, Matt Harvey/Cody Allen to Angels, Daniel Murphy to Rockies, Yusei Kikuchi to Mariners, Craig Kimbrel — when he eventually signs)
Did we miss any? What was your team's biggest offseason move? Let us know in the comments below!
