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Things we learned in Miami Dolphins’ shocking 28-27 loss to the Tennessee Titans

chris perkins, steve svekis, south florida sun-sentinel
·12 min read

MIAMI GARDENS — The Miami Dolphins had a chance to regain the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff picture with a victory over Tennessee on Monday night. They didn’t.

Miami’s 28-27 loss to Tennessee was a shocker because the offense stalled out against a bad defense, and the Dolphins defense allowed 15 fourth-quarter points to a sub-.500 team.

Complications began early in the game with a lost fumble at the Titans’ 4-yard line after a botched snap and an ensuing strip-sack of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and continued through the first half. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill (left ankle) and center Connor Williams (left knee) went down to injuries.

The defense put the Dolphins (9-4) on the scoreboard with a pick-six for the franchise-record third consecutive game.

But the Dolphins had to work hard in this one.

Here are some more takeaways from a surprising Miami loss:

Playmaking defense establishes franchise record

When Dolphins defensive lineman Zach Sieler picked off a pass by Tennessee quarterback Will Levis and returned it five yards for a touchdown it marked the third consecutive game the Dolphins had an interception return for a touchdown.

Safety Jevon Holland had the 99-yard touchdown return against the New York Jets just before halftime, and linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel had the 33-yard interception return touchdown vs. the Washington Commanders. — Chris Perkins

McDaniel loses yet another challenge, now 2 for 11

Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel threw a red challenge flag in the third quarter on a 30-yard reception by Titans running back Tyjae Spears in which he fumbled the ball out of bounds after being tackled.

McDaniel lost a challenge in Miami’s previous game against Washington.

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OL without Armstead, Hunt

The offensive line shuffle continued for yet another game.

Miami started Williams, right guard Liam Eichenberg, right tackle Austin Jackson, left guard Lester Connor and left tackle Kendall Lamm. It marked the ninth starting combination the Dolphins have used on the offensive line.

And it didn’t last long.

Williams sustained a knee injury in the first quarter and didn’t return. That meant Eichenberg shifted to center and Robert Jones came in at right guard.

Eichenberg had a holding and a false start in the first half on top of the botched snap with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (it’s unclear who was at fault) in the first quarter.

The Dolphins allowed five sacks vs. the Titans.

Run game reels off yet another 100-yard performance

The Dolphins (158 yards rushing on 31 carries) were able to pound the ball for yet another 100-yard performance. It was the third consecutive and fourth in the past five games. The other game in that stretch was a 99-yard showing against Las Vegas.

Miami entered the game second in the league in rushing at 143.3 yards per game. Baltimore leads the league at 157.1 yards per game.

Third-and-short concerns put aside, kind of

Third-and-short has been troubling for Miami all season but Miami was 3 for 5 on Monday. None of those were on third-and-goal, however.

Miami had third-and-goal at the Tennessee 2-yard line and Tagovailoa threw incomplete for wide receiver Cedrick Wilson Jr.

Miami had third-and-goal from the Tennessee 3-yard line in the fourth quarter and Tagovailoa slipped and fell while changing direction and looking for an open receiver.

It was a solid showing on third-and-short overall but Miami needed more timely plays.

Tyreek 2K campaign slows down a bit

Hill (four receptions, 61 yards) hit a bump on his road to the NFL’s first 2,000-yard receiving season. Hill sustained a left ankle injury in the first quarter after a six-yard loss. He returned in the third quarter but wasn’t very effective.

Hill entered Monday’s game with 1,481 yards receiving, which was an average of 123.4 yards per game.

Hill is vying to become the first wide receiver with 2,000 yards in a season. Calvin Johnson has the record with 1,964 yards in 2012.

Defending Henry goes very well

Tennessee running back Derrick Henry did nothing against Miami’s run defense, which was eighth the league at 96.6 yards allowed per game.

Henry ended with 35 yards on 17 carries. His longest run was six yards.

Henry began play Monday second in the NFL in rushing with 841 yards, an average of 4.3 yards per carry.

Turnover margin

The Dolphins won the turnover battle, 3-1, and improved their season total to minus-2.

Miami was even on turnovers in the first quarter after Sieler scored on a 5-yard interception return touchdown.

Miami had a turnover in the first quarter when Tagovailoa and Eichenberg bobbled the snap. The ball hit the ground but Tagovailoa picked it up and attempted to drop back to pass when defensive tackle Jaleel Johnson swatted the ball out of Tagovailoa’s hand.

The Dolphins got other turnovers on edge rusher Bradley Chubb’s fumble recovery on a bad pitch to Henry and safety Elijah Campbell’s fumble recovery on a muffed punt, both in the fourth quarter.

Miami entered the game minus-4, tied for 20th with Atlanta, Tennessee and Philadelphia. Kansas City, for those keeping track, is at minus-7, tied for 27th.

The Dolphins won the turnover battle in their previous game, 1-0, in its 45-15 victory over Washington.

Defense does OK without Holland, Phillips and Baker

Miami’s defense, playing without Holland (knees), edge rusher Jaelan Phillips (season-ending Achilles) and linebacker Jerome Baker (knee injury; on injured reserve) was good most of the game but it had a little bit of leakage in spots.

The fourth quarter was shaky though as Tennessee easily drove down the field.

Titans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins ended with seven receptions for 124 yards and one touchdown.

Levis (21 of 36, 275 yards, one touchdown, one interception) was only sacked once and made some nice throws.

The Titans only rushed for 75 yards, however, and never got much going offensively.

Because Baker was injured last game, this is the first game the defense has played with the trio of Phillips, Holland and Baker. Phillips and Holland were out of the starting lineup for the Washington victory.

Miami started safety Brandon Jones in Holland’s place, Ginkel started in Phillips’ place and Duke Riley started in Baker’s place.

Dolphins suffer first home loss, lose home supremacy

Miami fell to 5-1 at Hard Rock Stadium this season and 10-3 at Hard Rock under McDaniel.

More importantly, the aura of invincibility at home has fallen for the Dolphins. This could put a whole new light on the finishing stretch of four of the last five at home. Miami has home games remaining against the New York Jets (5-8), Dallas (10-3), and Baltimore (10-3).

Tyreek Hill, the great elevator

When Hill joined the Dolphins, he reminded a podcast audience in June 2022 of how he had torched the Minnesota Vikings in a 2019 game started by ex-Dolphin Matt Moore, who had sat out the 2018 season and hung them up after 2019. He added that current Dolphins passer Tua Tagovailoa was worth “10 Matt Moores.” However, it does get to the main point that Hill has turbocharged the passing numbers of the quarterbacks he has played with.

Here are the With Tyreek/Without Tyreek passer rating splits for the four quarterbacks who have taken the most snaps with Hill on the field since he became a full-time starter in 2017: Patrick Mahomes (3,893 snaps with Hill, 2,259 without): 105.8 passer rating with Hill/101.2 without; Tagovailoa (1,444/1,348): 105.7/88.8; Alex Smith (961/5,416): 104.7/84.9; Moore (170/491): 100.9/81.2. — Steve Svekis

In the final four games, the Dolphins will face QBs who have piled up points against Miami during their careers

The final quartet of games begins against the New York Jets, who will be starting Zach Wilson. Wilson and the Jets have averaged 32.0 points per game against Miami (64 points in two games). The Cowboys’ Dak Prescott put up 31 points in a 2019 25-point Dallas victory. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has seen Baltimore roll up 107 points in his three starts (35.7 points per game), and Josh Allen has started 12 games against Miami, with Buffalo pouring on 408 points (34.0). That equals 18 games and 610 points (33.9 points per game). Another thing all those passers have in common is an ability to hurt teams with their feet. Wilson (93 runs for 498 yards), Prescott (396-1,827), Jackson (850-5,081) and Allen (618-3,461) have combined for a 5.6-yard-per-carry average.

The incredible difference between Hill’s 2023 and Johnson’s record-setting 2012

Calvin Johnson set the NFL receiving-yardage record for a season in 2012 with 1,964 yards. In the first three quarters of his games, MegaTron averaged 431.3 yards in each quarter (1,294 yards) over the full season. But Johnson made massive hay in the fourth quarters and overtime, collecting 670 yards, 34.1% of his total receiving yards. On a 4-12 Lions team, there was a chunk of rally passing and garbage-time opportunity in there (199 yards by my count). But Hill? He already has 1,393 receiving yards in quarters one through three, but a microscopic 88 fourth-quarter yards, 5.9% of his total, as the high-flying Dolphins have usually been shutting down their offense with plenty of time left in the fourth quarter of games. Let’s say that Hill was piling up the fourth-quarter stats as Johnson did in the fourth quarter at the rate of 41.9 yards per final period/overtime. Adding in the net 414 yards, Hill would have entered the Tennessee game with 1,895 receiving yards instead of 1,481. A 16-game pace of 2,526 yards instead of his still-record-setting current 1,974, and a 17-game extrapolation of 2,684 instead of the current 2,098.

The oddity of the Dolphins’ numbers on third- and fourth-and-1

Two weeks ago, the Dolphins’ performance on third-and-1 and fourth-and-1 was a putrid anomaly, their 7 for 20 and 35% success rate far behind even the second-worst team in the NFL in the stat. However, after four consecutive conversions against the Commanders and Titans, that percentage had soared to 45.8%. Despite the streak, Miami still trails the second-worst Jets and Falcons in the stat as those teams each have converted 12 of 21 for a 57.1% success rate with 3 feet to gain. It has been truly baffling.

Take a look at the Miami conversion rates in third/fourth-down situations with more than a yard required (through the Titans tilt): 2 yards: 58.3% (7 for 12); 3 yards: 66.7% (12 for 18); 4 yards: 42.9% (6 for 14); 5 yards: 44.4% (4 for 9); 6 yards: 57.1% (8 for 14); 7 yards: 35.7% (5 for 14); 8 yards: 85.7% (6 for 7) and 9 yards: 50.0% (4 for 8). Even in prayer situations of at least 10 yards to go, the Dolphins have done well, with a 23.4% rate (11 for 47). One would expect that the short-yardage success will rise toward the mean. Miami will need it to as the tough close of the schedule and playoffs beckon.

Last time the Dolphins offense scored zero points in a first half was more than two years ago

Miami hadn’t seen its offense be shut out in the first 30 minutes since Sept. 19, 2021 against the Bills, when Tagovailoa exited in the first half with a ribs injury. The most recent first-half shutout where Tagovailoa played the whole time was on Dec. 20, 2020 against the New England Patriots. All three games were at Hard Rock Stadium.

Tagovailoa still looking for improvement when on the national stage

In the 14 games Tua Tagovailoa has played in when the Dolphins have been on a national broadcast, his passer rating has been a mediocre 87.5. Tagovailoa’s national games, in order of passer rating, from best to worst: 104.0, At Bills, 2022, 32-29 loss; 104.0, Ravens, 2021, 22-10 win; 99.4, At Raiders, 2020, 26-25 win; 95.1, Jaguars (London), 2021, 23-20 loss; 92.7, Steelers, 2022, 16-10 win; 92.2, At Patriots, 24-17 win; 91.5, At Saints, 20-3 win; 90.5, Titans, 28-27 loss; 87.5, At Eagles, 2023, 31-17 loss; 87.0: Chiefs (Germany), 21-14 loss; 80.8, Packers, 26-20 loss; 77.5, At Jets, 2023, 34-13 win; 65.3, At Chargers, 2023, 23-17 loss; 52.7, at Bengals, 2022, 27-15 loss. The total numbers are 258-399 for 2,980 yards with 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, plus nine fumbles. The performance in all other games? Tagovailoa is 754-1,113 for 8,732 yards with 63 touchdown passes and 23 interceptions, a 101.5 passer rating and 19 fumbles.

What was behind the quarter-long run-game evaporation?

For a span from 10:15 remaining in the third quarter to 10:09 left in the fourth quarter, the only Dolphins run was a 3-yard scramble by Tagovailoa. In this sort of physical game, that was a surprise.

On deck: New York Jets, Hard Rock Stadium, Sunday, 1 p.m.

It looks like it will be Wilson back in the saddle as the Jets starting quarterback. As flawed as he has been, Wilson is leaps and bounds better than the recently released Tim Boyle, who started the Black Friday game for New York vs.Miami, infamously throwing the Hail Mary that was returned 99 yards for a first half-ending touchdown.