There's a lot at stake for Tennessee baseball to close regular season at South Carolina

Tony Vitello has two thoughts about Tennessee baseball's final road trip of the regular season.

The Vols have to "go on the road and play better overall," the sixth-year coach said in a sweeping statement Tuesday. He whittled down his thoughts in the second.

"We need to pick up where we left off with our trip down to Georgia and kind of replicate that same mentality and same effort and see where it gets us," Vitello said.

The No. 19 Vols (36-17, 14-13 SEC) face No. 9 South Carolina (37-15, 15-11) for three games starting Thursday (7 p.m. ET, SEC Network+) with much to play for in the postseason.

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"They’re at home," Vitello said. "It’s a tough place to play. I’m sure they expect to hold court or hold serve there."

What Tennessee is playing for at South Carolina

Tennessee has locked in a spot in the SEC Tournament in Hoover, Alabama. It also has put itself in good position for a strong seed in the NCAA Tournament with its past month, vaulting from a 5-10 SEC record to a 14-13 mark with a pair of sweeps and a series win against Kentucky.

The Vols are essentially guaranteed to play in the single-elimination first day of the SEC Tournament on May 23. UT would need to sweep the Gamecocks and get help from Arkansas at Vanderbilt and more to move into a top-four seed.

A coveted NCAA regional host spot is still in sight for Tennessee, however, but it has to make a statement at South Carolina. UT has a 2-11 record in road games, including a 2-10 mark in SEC play. Tennessee beat LSU in the series finale on April 1 and won the series opener at Georgia on May 5.

The Vols have hosted each of the past two seasons at Lindsey Nelson Stadium and won the Knoxville Regional both times. They are a markedly more assertive team this season at home, although Vitello and the players have expressed optimism about their road performance after the Georgia series despite a series loss.

Where does Tennessee's resume stack up in recent NCAA Tournament hosting history?

Since 2015, all but one SEC team that reached or eclipsed 18 conference wins hosted. Arkansas in 2022 is the lone exception among the 31 teams with at least 18 regular-seasons SEC wins.

The dropoff for teams with between 15 and 17 wins is sharp. Only two of six SEC teams with 17 wins were picked as regional hosts. Three of seven teams with 16 wins hosted and one of 10 with 15 wins hosted. Florida was the lone host team with 15 wins last season after winning four games in the SEC Tournament before falling to UT in the title game. The nine other team SEC teams since 2015 did not earn a host spot.

Auburn in 2022 followed South Carolina in 2021 and Ole Miss in 2019 as regional hosts with 16 regular-season conference wins.

The Vols need to win two games at South Carolina to get to the 16-win mark and put itself more squarely in the hosting conversation. Wins in Hoover would add to those odds. A series loss, however, likely means Tennessee needs a deep run in the SEC Tournament to claim a hosting spot.

Tennessee's RPI is No. 23 entering the series at South Carolina, which has the No. 5 RPI. UT would finish the regular season with back-to-back series wins against top-five RPI teams after beating No. 1 Kentucky.

Mike Wilson covers University of Tennessee athletics. Email him at michael.wilson@knoxnews.com and follow him on Twitter @ByMikeWilson. If you enjoy Mike’s coverage, consider a digital subscription that will allow you access to all of it.

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: What's at stake for Tennessee baseball at South Carolina.