Texas Tech basketball's key defensive improvement could bolster March prospects | Giese

Grant McCasland doesn't want to talk about March.

The head coach of the 23rd-ranked Texas Tech basketball team doesn't want to talk about much of anything other than a game that just concluded or a game soon to come. McCasland shot down any talk of the team's future outlook when the Red Raiders were in first place of the Big 12 standings, and after Tuesday's comeback win over TCU, he brushed off any chatter that the team's 82-81 triumph says anything more than it being one game with one result.

"We've got a real plan to how we're attacking this," McCasland said, "and we really invest in each other every day and we put ourselves in the best position to get better. That's all we care about. Honestly, that's all we care about."

McCasland may not want to talk about March, or the team's projected NCAA Tournament seeding — which averages out to a 6-seed — but different areas of the team can, and will, determine the team's ultimate finale to what's already been a memorable season.

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Much of the focus on Texas Tech has been its historic offense, and for good reason. The defense, though, has been an issue, especially early in conference play. For a program known for sucking the life out of opposing offenses, the Red Raiders were. ... fine, just fine on defense. The team was finding success even while being mediocre on that end of the floor.

One aspect to the team being a bit lethargic on that end of the floor was its 3-point defense. Opponents were having a field day from beyond the arc, and it was a big part of why so many games came down to the wire. As good as Texas Tech is at shooting the 3, it was giving up just as many.

Lately, the story has shifted in a drastic way.

Through the first eight games of the Big 12 schedule, teams were hitting 39.8% of their 3s against the Red Raiders, the worst mark in the conference. That shooting equated to 75 makes (9.75 per game) and 225 total points (28.1 per) just on 3s.

Over the last five games, opponents have connected on 25% of their 3-point attempts. Makes and points have also been halved, down to 4.8 successful tries and 14.4 points off of 3s per contest in this span.

There is a caveat to these improved perimeter numbers. In this same five-game span, the Red Raiders are allowing about six points per game more in the paint (34.8 per) than the first eight games (28.75). The absence of Warren Washington can account for much of that differential.

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What's interesting about this shift on the defensive end is it has come with Texas Tech in the midst of a shooting slump. Taking the same sample sizes, the Red Raiders have converted only 32.7% of their 3s in the last five games after shooting 40.9% in their first eight conference games.

McCasland doesn't like being asked about the team's shooting either, mostly because this isn't the first time the team has struggled to hit its 3s (see the first three games of the season) and the team still has some of the best shooters in the country. Eventually those shots will start to fall again.

But the defense that has come in this most recent slump has to come along for the ride when the team starts making its 3s again. When it comes to the NCAA Tournament, even the best offenses can go cold. Playing solid defense can make up for those off shooting nights, like it did against TCU and the first meeting with UCF.

Trends to watch

McCasland continues to move up the ranks when it comes to first-year head coaches at Texas Tech. With 19 wins so far this year, he's tied with Gene Gibson for the third-most wins in a debut season with the Red Raiders. He's also one Big 12 win away from tying Bob Knight for the third-most conference wins in his first year at Tech. Mark Adams holds the record for both of these, winning 27 total games and 12 conference contests in his first season.

This doesn't apply to UCF, but it's interesting nonetheless. Texas Tech has four wins over ranked teams this year, which is tied for the third-most in the regular season in program history (another record Adams holds, having won seven games against ranked foes in the 2021-22 regular season). Baylor is the only remaining team on Tech's schedule that is currently ranked.

Saturday's game in Orlando is a rematch from the two teams' meeting in Lubbock two weeks ago, which Texas Tech won 66-59. The Red Raiders held the Knights to 36% from the field and 20% from 3. Darrion Williams (13 points, 13 rebounds) and Washington (10 points, 11 rebounds) each had double-doubles in the win.

Washington's status for Saturday's game is not yet known and UCF's 7-footer Ibrahima Diallo, who missed the first meeting, has returned to the floor for the Knights. In the three games Washington has missed this season, opponents have totaled 124 points in the paint, including 44 in each of the last two.

Key statistic

This is an interesting position for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are mostly locked into an NCAA Tournament bid, so it mainly comes down to seeding the rest of the way. Tech's three road games are against the bottom three teams in the Big 12 standings. Wins aren't guaranteed, but the Red Raiders are favored in every game from this point, and losing to a 13-12 UCF team could put a dent in Tech's solid resume.

If the Big 12 Tournament began today, the Red Raiders would be the No. 5 seed. Teams finishing in the top four of the standings get a double bye into the quarterfinals.

Score prediction: Texas Tech 74, UCF 65

Bottom line: I'd be surprised if Washington plays in this game, even if he's able to give it a go with bigger fish to fry coming up. Tech tends to shoot better on the road and this would be an ideal time for Pop Isaacs and Chance McMillian to rediscover their shots.

Big 12 Men's Basketball

No. 23 Texas Tech at UCF

When: Saturday, 3 p.m.

Where: Addition Financial Arena, Orlando

TV: ESPN+

Records: Texas Tech 19-7, 8-5; UCF 13-12, 4-9

Notable: UCF's loss in the first meeting began its current four-game losing streak. Three of those losses have come on the road and three have come by single digits.

Big 12 Standings

Team Overall Conference

Houston 23-3 10-3

Iowa State 20-6 9-4

Kansas 20-6 8-5

Baylor 19-7 8-5

Texas Tech 19-7 8-5

BYU 19-7 7-6

TCU 18-8 7-6

Texas 17-9 6-7

Oklahoma 18-8 6-7

Cincinnati 16-10 5-8

Kansas State 15-11 5-8

UCF 13-12 4-9

Oklahoma State 12-14 4-9

West Virginia 9-17 4-9

This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Texas Tech basketball's key defensive improvement could bolster March prospects