Texas basketball vs. Kansas State: Prediction, scouting report for top-15 battle in Austin

Sunday's Texas-Kansas State game is missing a little sizzle. Longhorns point guard Rori Harmon won't play because of a season-ending knee injury, and Wildcats center Ayoka Lee is out after recent ankle surgery. But even without those All-America candidates, this is still a matchup between the Nos. 2 and 12 teams in the Associated Press poll. Make no mistake, plenty will be on the line at Moody Center (1 p.m., FS1, 103.1).

Here's what you need to know about the matchup:

A loss could determine Texas' fate in the Big 12 race

Kansas State (20-2, 9-1) is coming off its first Big 12 blemish — a 66-63 loss to Oklahoma on Wednesday — but the Wildcats still control their destiny in the Big 12 championship chase. Kansas State last won a conference title in 2008.

The title drought at Texas isn't that long. The Longhorns shared the Big 12 championship with Oklahoma last season. But defending that title hasn't been easy. Texas (20-3) is 7-3 in Big 12 play. A loss would put the Longhorns three games behind Kansas State with seven conference games left on both teams' schedule.

One of UT's Big 12 losses was a 61-58 slip-up at Kansas State. When projecting what will happen Sunday, how much stock should be put in that result? Perhaps not much. Lee had 21 points and 10 rebounds in that meeting Jan. 13.

Texas getting effective minutes from Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda

Coming off her solid showing in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, big things were expected out of Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda this season. The sophomore guard, however, has struggled to earn consistent playing time. She didn't even appear in last month's Kansas State game.

But over the past two games, she's given Texas a boost off the bench. She played 14 minutes and knocked down all three of her shots in a 67-50 win over Cincinnati on Jan. 27. She went 2-for-4 from the field at Baylor on Thursday, but head coach Vic Schaefer said each of the shots that Mwenentanda took was a good one.

The 6-foot-2 Mwenentanda also has been a capable defender when Texas chooses to use a zone. Baylor coach Nicki Collen noted after a 67-55 loss to the Longhorns that "I just thought she did a good job playing the top of their zone."

So is that what Texas needs from Mwenentanda? Solid minutes off the bench, good defense and a few buckets?

"Desperately," Schaefer said. "We need that kid to play better, and I need to coach her better because I think she's got it in her."

Kansas State faring well against ranked opponents

While matching its best ranking ever in the AP poll, No. 2 Kansas State has fared well against ranked opponents. If the Wildcats top Texas on Sunday, it will be the fifth time they have beaten five ranked teams in a single season.

Kansas State has beaten Iowa, North Carolina, Texas and Baylor teams that were ranked Nos. 2, 18, 10 and 13. Those teams are currently ranked third, 24th, 12th and 13th. The Wildcats also were beaten by Iowa this season.

Texas vs. Kansas State prediction

Texas. The Longhorns had chances to knock off the Wildcats in Manhattan last month but failed. This time Texas will get the job done at home and make the Big 12 championship race an interesting one.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Texas hosts Kansas State in key women's basketball game