Will the Texans go pass heavy in 2024?

Bobby Slowik last season teased us with what could have been.

The Texans’ offensive coordinator, lovingly dubbed PFF Bobby by football analytics nerds, toyed with the idea of Houston’s offense as a massively pass-heavy attack led by ascendent superstar C.J. Stroud, who tormented defenses in every measurable way as a rookie in 2023.

The Texans went Full Chiefs in Week 1 against Baltimore, posting a drop back rate over expected of 8 percent. Then in Week 3, Houston was 7 percent over its expected drop back rate. Through his first three NFL games, Stroud had 121 pass attempts; only Kirk Cousins had more drop backs than Stroud headed into Week 4.

It was a pass attempt total that set NFL oldheads aflame with righteous indignation. This is not how you win in the NFL with a rookie quarterback, they howled. You establish the run and only pass when you have to and hope your defense plays spectacularly. This is the way it’s always been done. How dare PFF Bobby deny this tried-and-true formula.

Slowik proceeded to reverse course and call an offense that remained balanced or run-first for much of the next six weeks. Houston was 4 percent below its expected drop back rate from Week 4 to Week 10. But a funny thing was happening: Slowik was calling more frequent drop backs on early downs, unlike in the season’s first few weeks, when Houston was -8 percent in pass rate over expected on first downs, a definite no-no in analytics circles.

From Week 11 through the end of the season, the Texans were 1 percent over their expected pass rate on first downs and 2 percent over their overall PROE. Like I said: A tease. Slowik’s offense was in the top half of the league in pass heaviness, but just barely. The lowly Raiders and Saints ended up being just about as pass heavy as Stroud and the Texans.

What Might Be in 2024

One game that jumps off the spreadsheet for the 2023 Texans was their Week 9 win over the Bucs, a 39-37 shootout that saw Stroud assert himself as the future of the franchise, and possibly the future of the NFL.

Slowik let it rip against Tampa. The Texans were a stunning 10 percent over their expected first down pass rate. Dropping back on 73 percent of their offensive plays, Slowik and company were 8 percent over their overall expected pass rate. Four hundred and seventy yards and five touchdown tosses later, Stroud had cemented his status as the One Who Was Promised in the 2023 draft class.

Slowik’s work of art against the Bucs was in stark contrast to his nadir as an NFL play caller: A humiliating Week 8 loss to the down-bad Panthers in which Houston’s offense was 8 percent below its expected drop back rate. Slowik was hyper conservative on early downs and the Texans paid the price.

Slowik’s aforementioned teasing, I think, could come to an end in 2024. With the acquisition of Stefon Diggs to pair with the borderline elite duo of Tank Dell and Nico Collins, we could (finally) see the Texans lean into a pass-first offense led by Stroud.

We’ve seen NFL teams abandon their commitment to radically balanced offenses after bringing in a top wideout. The 2022 Eagles, after somehow acquiring A.J. Brown from the Titans, were 3 percent over their expected drop back rate after being 3 percent below that rate in 2021. Before the Bills nabbed Stefon Diggs ahead of the 2020 season, Buffalo was an unapologetically run first offense. The Bills went from -1 percent PROE in 2019 to 10 percent over PROE in 2020, with (a much younger and more productive) Diggs serving as the centerpiece of their passing attack. Josh Allen logged 111 more pass attempts in 2020 than he had the year prior. That breaks down to about seven more throws per game.

Spending money and resources on a top-flight pass catcher is often enough to push teams away from more traditional, balanced offensive approaches. That the Texans have cemented aged veteran Joe Mixon as the team’s lead back suggests they aren’t in any way planning on establishing it with a stubborn workhorse-led running game.

An increase in Stroud drop backs could fuel the kind of pass volume that would be necessary for Dell, Diggs, and Collins to have solid, if not spectacular, statistical seasons in 2024. Slowik and the Texans will first need to abandon their heavy usage of 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end, two receivers) and lean more on 11 personnel (one back, one tight end, three receivers) if they're going to get the most out of their trio of wideouts.

The Texans in 2023 used 21 personnel on 29 percent of their plays, the league’s fourth highest rate behind the Ravens, Niners, and Dolphins. At 29 percent, their 11 personnel usage was among the NFL’s lowest. That brand of offense makes sense when a team only has two productive wideouts. With three, Houston will have no choice but to get Diggs, Collins, and Dell on the field at the same time. More three-wideout sets and a continued commitment to hammering the middle of the field — Houston in 2023 led the league with 26 percent middle-of-the-field target rate — could (should) make the Texans a waking nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators.

The Texans would do well to get more aggressive on fourth downs too. Last year, head coach DeMeco Ryans went for it on fourth down at a 15 percent rate, the ninth lowest in the NFL. Maybe — hopefully — the addition of Diggs will end the team’s frustrating dalliance with a balanced-at-any-cost offensive approach in 2024. Hopefully, Slowik will let Stroud cook.