10 predictions for Detroit Tigers in 2024: 40 homers, rookie rakes, a new closer and more

The Detroit Tigers put up a 78-84 record in the 2023 season and finished second in the American League Central, nine games behind the Minnesota Twins.

The Twins won the division with 87 victories.

While the Twins cut payroll, the Tigers have added five new players to the roster this offseason. It's clear the Tigers intend to win the AL Central, considered the weakest division, in 2024.

Here are 10 predictions for the Tigers in the 2024 season, some of which were discussed on the latest episode of the "Days of Roar" podcast:

Javier Báez continues to struggle

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The Tigers signed former All-Star shortstop Javier Báez to a six-year, $140 million contract in December 2021.

In the 2022-23 seasons, Báez hit .230 with 26 home runs and a .643 OPS across 280 games with the Tigers. He hit .238 with 17 homers in 2022, then .222 with nine homers in 2023. His 75 wRC+ ranked 109th among 110 qualified hitters over the past two seasons.

In 2023 alone, Báez hit .177 against four-seam fastballs and .195 against four-seam fastballs inside the strike zone. The 31-year-old needs to get on time for fastballs again, but as he ages into his 30s, getting on time for fastballs means strengthening certain muscles and tweaking swing mechanics. He can't rely solely on his natural athleticism anymore.

THE JAVY PLAN: Buy a house, strengthen specific muscles, visit hitting guru

Báez, a 10-year MLB veteran and former World Series champion, knows he needs to make significant adjustments for the first time in his career, which is a reason to be cautiously optimistic. The Tigers are hoping he works hard this offseason.

Spencer Torkelson hits .250 with 40 home runs

First baseman Spencer Torkelson, the 2020 No. 1 overall draft pick, knew he needed to make adjustments last offseason, so he put in the work. The 24-year-old stuck to his process, and by the end of his second season, the results were in his favor with the first 30-home run season from a Tiger since Miguel Cabrera and Justin Upton in 2016.

Torkelson hit .233 with 31 home runs, 94 RBIs, 67 walks and 171 strikeouts over 159 games.

The next step in Torkelson's development is adhering to the optimal approach at the plate against individual pitchers. Doing that, in theory, will increase the batting average and decrease the strikeouts. There should be an uptick in home runs, as well, because he will be putting more balls in play.

The Tigers want him to implement those adjustments. The good news is that he has already shown an ability and a willingness to make changes to his game, all while developing a close relationship with hitting coach Michael Brdar.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers' Spencer Torkelson refused to look at scoreboard in Year 2: It worked

Tarik Skubal finishes top three in AL Cy Young voting

The top three finishers in 2023 AL Cy Young voting were Gerrit Cole (2.63 ERA, 209 innings, 33 starts, 222 strikeouts, 5.2 fWAR), Sonny Gray (2.79 ERA, 184 innings, 32 starts, 183 strikeouts, 5.3 fWAR) and Kevin Gausman (3.16 ERA, 185 innings, 31 starts, 237 strikeouts, 5.3 fWAR).

Left-hander Tarik Skubal, who returned from flexor tendon surgery in early July, logged a 2.80 ERA with 14 walks and 102 strikeouts over 80⅓ innings and 15 starts last season, worth 3.3 fWAR. He dominated in September to finish his comeback season: 0.90 ERA with four walks and 43 strikeouts over 30 innings in five starts.

MORE ABOUT HIM: How Tigers' Tarik Skubal overcame major elbow surgery, became elite starting pitcher

The 27-year-old ranked in the 96th percentile in strikeout rate (32.9%), 96th percentile in walk rate (4.5%), 94th percentile in barrel rate (4.2%), 91st percentile in chase rate (33.5%) and 85th percentile in whiff rate (31.3%). His fastball averaged 95.8 mph, and his changeup generated a 50.6% whiff rate.

Skubal is flying under the radar as a 2024 Cy Young candidate.

Riley Greene plays 100-130 games

Outfielder Riley Greene has suffered three injuries in the past two seasons: right foot fracture in April 2022, left fibula stress reaction in May 2023 and right elbow sprain in September 2023. (He also missed the Arizona Fall League in 2021 because of a concussion.)

When healthy, Greene is the best position player on the Tigers' roster, but the 23-year-old hasn't played 100 games in a single season in his two-year MLB career, tallying 93 in 2022 and 99 in 2023. But he played 124 games in the minor leagues in 2021.

MORE ABOUT HIM: In May, Riley Greene is carrying the Tigers and finally unlocking pull-side power

The left fibula stress reaction, which didn't require surgery, was a product of wear and tear on his legs. One reason to be a little bit concerned is that a stress reaction can progress to an actual stress fracture, which is when a crack develops in the bone.

Greene, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing right elbow, was cleared to begin his running progression around the second week of December as part of his offseason program.

There appears to be lower-body injury risk moving forward, so the Tigers will monitor his health.

"We got to make sure that he comes to camp in really, really good shape," Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris said Dec. 5 at the winter meetings. "We have to add some strength to his frame that will insulate him against future injury, and we also got to find ways to take load off of his body. We have the (designated hitter) spot available now, so it's an opportunity for him and other players."

Colt Keith wins AL Rookie of the Year

The top three finishers in 2023 AL Rookie of the Year voting were Gunnar Henderson (.255 BA, 28 HR, .814 OPS, 150 G, 4.6 fWAR), Tanner Bibee (2.98 ERA, 142 innings, 25 starts, 141 strikeouts, 3.0 fWAR) and Triston Casas (.263 BA, 24 HR, .854 OPS, 132 G, 1.7 fWAR).

Colt Keith, a 22-year-old top prospect, is expected to join the Tigers as their second baseman on the 2024 Opening Day roster. Other candidates for AL Rookie of the Year include Texas Rangers outfielder Evan Carter, Minnesota Twins second baseman Brooks Lee, Tampa Bay Rays infielder Junior Caminero and Baltimore Orioles outfielder Heston Kjerstad.

Keith hit .306 with 38 doubles, 27 home runs, 60 walks and 121 strikeouts across 126 games last season in Double-A Erie (59 games) and Triple-A Toledo (67 games), totaling a .932 OPS. His average exit velocity was 90.4 mph, and his contract rate was 75%.

He won't play elite defense, but his makeup as a complete hitter — a rare blend of contact, power and plate discipline — is capable of carrying him to Rookie of the Year honors in 2024 as long as he stays healthy.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Colt Keith thinks like Conor McGregor, plays like Joey Votto, looks like Tigers' best prospect

Jason Foley becomes the closer

Right-handed reliever Alex Lange racked up 26 saves and continued to miss bats with his curveball last season, but he struggled to throw strikes and had a miserable 5.18 ERA with 34 walks and 45 strikeouts over 41⅔ innings in his final 43 games.

It's probably time for the Tigers to turn to a new closer.

Jason Foley, a fellow right-handed reliever, earned seven saves last season, posting a 2.61 ERA with 15 walks and 55 strikeouts over 69 innings in 70 games. He should be the frontrunner to pitch in save situations once the upcoming season gets underway. Not only did Foley throw strikes and induce ground balls at above-average rates, but his changeup (used for left-handed hitters) improved over the past two seasons, from a 15.8% whiff rate in 2022 to a 29.1% whiff rate in 2023.

Foley also throws a 97.2 mph sinker that's among the best sinkers in baseball.

CURRENT CLOSER: Tigers' Alex Lange determined to 'get better' after learning from closer struggles

Reese Olson throws more MLB innings than Casey Mize

The Tigers will have a five-man starting rotation on the Opening Day roster. The five starters could be Skubal, Kenta Maeda, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize and Matt Manning, meaning Reese Olson, Sawyer Gipson-Long, Keider Montero, Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden and Alex Faedo could begin the season in Triple-A Toledo's rotation.

In that scenario, Olson would be next up to fill a need in the starting rotation.

Olson, who had a 3.99 ERA with 103 strikeouts in 21 games last season, deserves an opportunity to build on his 103⅔ innings with the Tigers, regardless of his assignment coming out of spring training. After all, the 24-year-old registered a 1.44 ERA over 31⅓ innings through five starts in September.

The biggest question mark is Mize's health in his return from elbow surgery and back surgery. The 26-year-old, a former No. 1 overall pick, hasn't pitched for the Tigers since April 2022 and is expected to face innings restrictions, whereas Olson pitched 140⅓ innings between Triple-A Toledo and Detroit in 2023, so he won't have any innings restrictions in 2024.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers rookie Reese Olson breaks down five-pitch repertoire that he learned to mix

Parker Meadows hits below .216

Center fielder Parker Meadows, who maintains rookie eligibility, hit .232 with three home runs, 17 walks and 37 strikeouts across 37 MLB games last season. His batting average plummeted to .191 before a strong nine-game finish in which he hit .361 with four walks and eight strikeouts.

Meadows, 24, is an elite defender and an elite runner. He has the raw skills to be the Tigers' center fielder, regardless of his offensive production, until 19-year-old prospect Max Clark challenges for the position at some point down the road. Still, Meadows needs to hit to stay relevant in the batting order.

He has a history of high strikeout rates, but in the past two seasons, he has maintained above-average walks while hitting over .250 in the minor leagues. Hitting like that in the big leagues would catapult him to the leadoff spot against right-handed hitters, but it remains to be seen if Meadows will be consistent against top-tier pitchers.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers' Parker Meadows continues epic start to MLB career: 'It doesn't feel real'

Jace Jung makes MLB debut in September

Jace Jung, a 23-year-old top prospect, isn't expected to make the Tigers' Opening Day roster out of spring training, but if all goes well at the upper levels of the minor leagues, he could put himself in a position to make his MLB debut in the second half of the season and serve as the primary third baseman.

In 2023, Jung hit .265 with 27 doubles, 28 home runs, 79 walks and 139 strikeouts in 128 games with High-A West Michigan (81 games) and Double-A Erie (47 games), totaling an .878 OPS.

He also played 15 games with the Salt River Rafters in the Arizona Fall League, where he transitioned from second base to third base (to accommodate for Keith's presence at second base) and hit .200 with 14 walks and 19 strikeouts.

The Tigers won't sign a free-agent third baseman, such as seven-year MLB veteran Matt Chapman, because they don't want to block Jung from playing time in 2024 and beyond. If the Tigers are contenders down the stretch, promoting Jung would probably help them compete for a spot in the postseason.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers prospect Jace Jung, an ice cream emoji and his first taste of World Series

More than 78 wins

The Tigers recorded 77 wins in 2021, 66 wins in 2022 and 78 wins in 2023.

A BIG SPLASH: Three New Year's resolutions for the Tigers in 2024

Harris, in his second year as the baseball operations president, has added starters Maeda and Flaherty, relievers Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller and outfielder Mark Canha to the roster this offseason. Canha, who owns a .364 OBP over the past six seasons, has been asked to influence the approach of the young hitters, including Torkelson, against individual pitchers.

That's why the Tigers will win more than 78 games.

The pre-spring prediction: 84 wins.

Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: 10 predictions for Detroit Tigers in 2024: Who's breaking out?