Tale of the tape, predictions: Notre Dame football faces stiff road test at Duke
SOUTH BEND — Another week, another primetime game against a ranked team for Notre Dame football.
After losing a heartbreaker, 17-14, to No. 6 Ohio State last week, the No. 11 Fighting Irish head on the road Saturday to face No. 17 Duke at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, N.C. (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
Notre Dame enters 4-1, while Duke is 4-0. The Blue Devils made a splash week one by beating then-No. 9 Clemson, 28-7 on Labor Day. They’ve since cruised past three subpar opponents.
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Notre Dame has beaten 29-straight ACC opponents in the regular season. Here’s the tale of the tape between the Irish and Blue Devils:
When Notre Dame has the football
Notre Dame has had a balanced offense all season, evident by 176 rushing yards and 175 passing yards against Ohio State. The Irish rushed for 54 of the 75 yards on one scoring drive, then threw for 55 of the 96 yards on its second. Quarterback Sam Hartman has thrown 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions, while four different running backs have combined for 10 rushing scores.
Running the ball will be key for the Irish as Duke ranks 70th in the country in rush defense, allowing 133 yards per game. The Blue Devils make up for it with a stingy pass defense (143 yards per game) that ranks fourth best in the country. Duke has 20 pass breakups with Myles Jones leading with two interceptions. Sophomore cornerback Chandler Rivers leads the team with 25 tackles.
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A team that’s willing to commit to the run like Notre Dame will likely be a problem for the Blue Devils.
Edge: Notre Dame
When Duke has the football
Few quarterbacks in the nation are as dynamic as Duke's Riley Leonard. Along with completing 67 of 99 passes for 778 yards and two throwing touchdowns, Leonard had 238 rushing yards and four scores on the ground. His 44-yard touchdown run in the third quarter against Clemson gave his team the lead for good, showing off his explosive play ability.
Running back Jordan Walters has 258 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Something will have to give in the running game, as Duke averages 200 yards per game, while Notre Dame’s defense allows just 111 yards per contest.
Limiting Leonard’s dual-threat ability will be a challenge for the Irish. Linebackers Marist Liufau, JD Bertrand and Jack Kiser will have their work cut out for them, with most of the responsibility falling on Kiser from his Rover position.
Edge: Notre Dame
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Special teams
While Spencer Shrader has a big leg for Notre Dame, he hasn’t been accurate with it, making just three of seven field goal attempts. His 47-yard miss in the second quarter against Ohio State loomed large at the end of the game.
Duke’s kicker, junior Todd Pelino, has made two more field goals in the same number of attempts as Shrader. Both kickers are perfect in PATs, with Shrader making 26 and Pelino 18.
Where Shrader has been effective is with touchbacks, with 23 of his 34 kickoffs landing in the end zone. Duke only has 10 touchbacks combined between two kickers, Charlie Ham and Ryan Degyansky.
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Neither team has done much in the return game, given the minimal points allowed by the Notre Dame and Duke defenses. Both teams have capable punters in Bryce McPherson for the Irish (48.3 yards/punt) and Porter Wilson for the Blue Devils (52.9 yards/punt).
Edge: Even
Coaching
Notre Dame’s coaching staff was not at its finest late against Ohio State game, failing to get 11 men on the field for the final two defensive snaps, ending in the Buckeyes’ game-winning 1-yard touchdown run at 0:01.
Poor clock management when Notre Dame had the ball with four minutes remaining also cost the Irish a chance to close out the game and give head coach Marcus Freeman a signature win.
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Duke’s resurgence in the last two years has been guided by head coach Mike Elko. After three-straight losing seasons under former coach David Cutcliffe, Elko — a former defensive coordinator for the Irish in 2017 — led the Blue Devils to 9-4 in 2022 to go with this year's 4-0 start. It’s No. 17 ranking this week is the highest for the program since 1994.
This is a close one to call, but the slight edge has to go to Notre Dame due to its experience in big games.
Edge: Notre Dame
South Bend Tribune staff predictions for Game 6 against Duke
TOM NOIE: No. 11 Notre Dame 41, No. 17 Duke 20: The Ohio State hangover lasts a little longer than anticipated, but once Notre Dame gets going, another Atlantic Coast Conference school is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time.
MIKE BERARIDNO: No. 11 Notre Dame 38, No. 17 Duke 24: Run blocking and run defense are Duke’s two glaring weaknesses, and the Irish will exploit them in a get-right evening.
MICHAEL WANBAUGH: No. 11 Notre Dame 38, No. 17 Duke 21: Onward and upward for the Irish as they take out their frustrations of last week on the Blue Devils.
AUSTIN HOUGH: No. 11 Notre Dame 27, No. 17 Duke 26: This is the biggest home football game for Duke in a long, long time; maybe ever. ESPN’s “College GameDay” will be there for the first time ever, and the stadium will be rocking from kickoff. But the Irish win a nailbiter.
This article originally appeared on South Bend Tribune: Tale of the tape: How Notre Dame football matches up against Duke
