Tale of the Tape: Penn State defense vs. Michigan offense
After a get-right performance against Maryland on the road last weekend, Penn State’s defense proved that the Indiana game, where they gave up a season-high 6.6 yards per play, was just a fluke. With Michigan coming into Beaver Stadium Saturday afternoon, the Nittany Lions will have their work cut out for them with the Wolverines’ number one-ranked offense.
Don’t get it twisted: Michigan’s offense has been dominant so far this season, but they have not seen an animal like the Penn State defense yet. In fact, their schedule ranks 111th out of 133 teams, so no team has been even remotely close to the step up in competition the Wolverines will face on Saturday. Michigan has steamrolled lesser competition and has the number-one-ranked defense to show for it. But on the offensive side, the Wolverines are more toward the middle of the pack (43) in total yards per game.
How will Penn State’s top-3 scoring defense disrupt Michigan? The answer lies in making them as one-dimensional as possible and trying to generate takeaways.
Passing yards per game
Penn State is a top-2 defense (behind only Michigan) in terms of total yards per game, but if you had to pick, the weaker link would be its pass defense. This season, the secondary has been criticized at times, like during the Indiana game, for giving up chunk plays or allowing Taulia Tagovailoa to start the game going 17/17 passing. Despite the criticisms, improvement was made in the Maryland game last weekend, and the unit ranks 12th in the country, giving up a still meager number of 173.9 yards per game.
However, the Nittany Lions pass rush is one of the top units in the country when it comes to rushing the quarterback, averaging 4.3 sacks per game. With pass rusher Chop Robinson gearing up to return from injury, Penn State will be looking for its pass rush to disrupt the Michigan passing game.
Michigan holds the country’s 45th-ranked passing offense with 257.1 yards per game. No team has had a 300-yard passing against the Nittany Lions, the closest being Ohio State with 286 yards. Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy has three interceptions and has only hit 300 yards passing one game last week against Purdue. The Nittany Lions’ defense has 10 interceptions and only allowed 7 touchdowns through the air so far this season.
Passing yards per attempt
Penn State’s defense has only allowed 6.1 yards per pass attempt this season, good for 15th in the nation and 6th in the Big Ten. The best performances against yards per attempt came against Delaware (3.4), Iowa (3.5), and UMass (1.9). Those three dominant outings prove that the Penn State pass defense can limit explosive plays.
JJ McCarthy is averaging a career-best 10.4 ypa, which puts him third in the country. Only five quarterbacks in the country average a first down per attempt. Michigan had the most yards per attempt in their non-conference game against UNLV (11.1 ypa) and their worst output against Nebraska (8.1 ypa).
Rushing yards per game
Michigan boasts two of the most explosive running backs in the country, Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. As a whole, the Wolverines are the 51st-ranked rushing offense in the country by yards per game and fourth in the Big Ten, right behind the Nittany Lions.
Against Nebraska in late September was Michigan’s best-rushing output of the season when they touched up the Cornhuskers for 249 yards, one of only two 200+ yard performances. The other came against Rutgers a week earlier. The Wolverines have yet to be held under 100 yards in any game this season, and last weekend against Purdue could only muster 110 yards. Michigan has 25 rushing touchdowns on the season, 16 of them by Blake Corum. Their 25 rushing scores are fourth in the nation and first in the Big Ten.
Penn State’s defense is second in the nation in rushing average per game (60.3) and is only behind James Madison (59.7), a school transitioning from FCS to FBS. Penn State has only given up more than 100 yards once against West Virginia (146 yards) in the season opener. Maryland last weekend was the Nittany Lions’ best performance against the run when the Terps ran for -51 yards, which includes sack yardage. Iowa, Northwestern, and UMass all failed to rush for more than 70 yards. Penn State has given up six rushing touchdowns so far, putting them behind Iowa and Michigan in the Big Ten.
Rushing yards per attempt
You would figure with two top-tier running backs, Michigan could rotate often and keep their yards per carry over at least five. But the Wolverines are tied for 46th with Rutgers, Ole Miss, Texas Tech, Arizona, and South Alabama with 4.6 yards per attempt. Corum averages 5.2 ypa so far this season, which is the lowest in his career in seasons with more than 50 carries. Edwards only averages 3.1 ypa a season after exploding onto the scene with a whopping 7.1 ypa. Although they aren’t a tremendous rushing team, Michigan averages 2.8 touchdowns per game on the ground, the country’s fourth-best number. It is worth noting that Michigan’s three worst rushing yards per attempt games have happened over their past three games.
The Nittany Lions allow a mind-boggling low number of two yards per carry so far this season. That number is once again a short second to James Madison for the top spot. No team has averaged more than four yards per carry against Penn State, the highest being West Virginia with 3.7 ypa. More than half of Penn State’s opponents have failed to rush for more than two yards per carry, including Ohio State, Iowa and Maryland.
Points per game
Despite the dominance, the Michigan offense only sits at 5th in the nation with 40.7 points per game, one spot above Penn State (40.2 ppg). The Wolverines have scored 30 or more points in every game this season and have eclipsed the 45 point mark three times. Michigan is coming off a 41-point outing against Purdue a week ago and scored their three highest point totals in the three weeks prior.
The Nittany Lions will challenge the Wolverines’ top-5 scoring offense with a defense allowing 11.9 points per game, good for third in the nation behind Big Ten foes Michigan and Iowa. Penn State has given up 13 total touchdowns (seven passing and six rushing)and never let an opponent score more than 24 points. Penn State also has two shutouts, including one against now-ranked Iowa.
Penn State’s red zone defense is probably the most volatile aspect of its defense, allowing scores on 87% of red zone trips. However, those red zone trips are limited to 16 (tied for third-fewest), including five field goals, five rushing scores, and four passing touchdowns. Michigan’s red zone offense is ranked sixth in red zone scores with 40. Michigan holds a top-10 red zone touchdown percentage, scoring 35 touchdowns in 45 trips to the red zone. Penn State should be in good shape if its defense can limit red zone trips and force Michigan into field goal tries.
Michigan is in for its toughest test so far this season, and its offense might be in for its stiffest challenge, including Ohio State on Thanksgiving weekend.
