Tale of the Tape: Comparing Penn State and Michigan

Penn State is back in action this weekend after getting last week off. Their first test out of the bye week is a tough one, arguably the toughest of the season. Penn State visits Michigan for a monster game in the Big Ten in Week 6, with both teams ranked in the top 10 and early Big Ten championship implications potentially at stake.

Penn State comes into the game as an underdog for the first time this season, but the comparisons with Michigan could lead to a closer game than some expect. But that being said, the Wolverines appear to have a number of position comparisons in their favor.

Let’s take a bit of a deeper look at the numbers.

For statistical purposes, we are referencing stats as provided by CFBStats.com.

Sean Clifford vs. J.J. McCarthy

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Let’s start with a look at this week’s starting quarterback comparison.

Edge: J.J. McCarthy

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There is something to be said for experience, and that is something Sean Clifford has in excess compared to Michigan’s new starting quarterback. But there is no question which of the two quarterbacks has been more efficient so far this season. McCarthy has a far greater completion percentage compared to Clifford, and one fewer interception (and Clifford’s two interceptions thrown this season have been bad decisions or reads).

As we’ll note later, McCarthy should be able to pick up some yards against the Penn State defense as well. This is a fairly even matchup overall, but McCarthy at home could have a slight edge here.

Nick Singleton vs. Blake Corum

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Can Penn State gain an edge on the ground?

Edge: Blake Corum

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Penn State may be excited about the future of [autotag]Nick Singleton[/autotag], the running back comparison is hands down in favor of Michigan this week. Blake Corum has raced his way up the Big Ten rushing leaderboard this season and if not for blowouts early on, Corum could easily have more than three 100-yard games coming into this weekend’s matchup.

Singleton is a difference-maker for Penn State’s running game, and he could make some plays of note in this game, but Corum has been as reliable as they come for the Wolverines.

Parker Washington vs. Ronnie Bell

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Who are the No. 1 receivers for the Nittany Lions and Wolverines?

Edge: Ronnie Bell

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Penn State’s [autotag]Parker Washington[/autotag] has gone this deep into the season without scoring a touchdown. That has been a bit surprising, although Penn State is getting other contributions to make up for it in the passing game. Michigan’s Ronnie Bell only has one touchdown reception this season (plus one rushing touchdown) and a little more than 100 more receiving yards than Washington. But this is a fairly even matchup. It’s what these two teams do elsewhere in the passing game that could be the real difference.

Penn State could have an edge at tight end with [autotag]Brenton Strange[/autotag], especially if Erick All is unavailable. But Michigan has gotten big results from Luke Schoonmaker.

When Penn State has the ball

Ranking Comparison (FBS Ranking)

Penn State offense vs. Michigan defense

Penn State’s offensive numbers and rankings are nothing that will blow you away at first glance. The offense can still tend to be rather streaky and get some good possessions in bursts only to follow it up with a few empty possessions, but the Nittany Lions have run a fairly balanced offensive gameplan. Penn State will be in for its biggest challenge trying to get the running game going against a Michigan defense allowing fewer than 82 rushing yards per game.

Points should also be difficult to come by with Michigan allowing just 11.3 points per game this season. But, this will also be the best offense Michigan has faced so far too. It is easy to have impressive defensive numbers against some of the opponents Michigan has faced this season, although Maryland gave them a good test to pass.

When Michigan has the ball

Ranking Comparison (FBS Ranking)

Michigan offense vs. Penn State defense

Penn State’s defensive secondary has some terrific individual players but the numbers certainly tell a different story. Opposing offenses have had little problem racking up some big passing yardage numbers, but the Nittany Lions have come up with some key stops when they have needed. Don’t expect Michigan to come close to their scoring average this week, but if the Wolverines can thrive on the ground, then it could be a long afternoon for Penn State.

James Franklin vs. Jim Harbaugh

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How do the head coaches measure up?

James Franklin continues his march toward 100 career coaching victories, and to get closer he will need to even his all-time head-to-head record against Jim Harbaugh (Harbaugh has 125 career college wins including his time at San Diego, and he has 44 more career victories if you include his NFL coaching career). There have been a few blowouts at each other’s expense in this coaching series, and on more than a few occasions the game has had a team ranked highly. This is the first time both schools are in the top 10 for the game under these two coaches.

Who has the edge?

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No matter how you choose to slice and dice this one, Michigan has the advantages just about everywhere you look. But some of the advantages are only slight edges overall. Penn State should prove they belong on the same field, and it would not be a total shock if they come away with the win. But measuring up these two programs head-to-head shows there is a reason why Michigan is the favorite this weekend.

But these are only numbers. Let’s see how it plays out on the field this Saturday afternoon.

Story originally appeared on Nittany Lions Wire