Takeaways from Heat’s damaging loss to Pacers, as play-in tournament now appears likely

Five takeaways from the Miami Heat’s 117-115 loss to the Indiana Pacers (45-34) on Sunday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse to fall to 1-1 on its three-game trip. The Heat (43-35) closes the trip on Tuesday against the Hawks in Atlanta:

The Heat’s most important game of the season did not go well. An appearance in the NBA’s play-in tournament is now likely for Miami.

By coming up short in the battle of two teams jockeying for the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference, the Heat is in real danger of needing to take part in the play-in tournament for the second straight season just to qualify for the playoffs.

Sunday’s two-point game was essentially decided in the first two quarters, as the Pacers opened the first quarter on a 16-7 run before breaking the game open to pull ahead by as many as 22 points in the first half. The Heat missed its first 10 three-point attempts on the way to shooting just 2 of 16 (12.5 percent) from three-point range in the first half.

“That can’t happen,” Heat captain and All-Star center Bam Adebayo said of the slow start. “We got to come out with a sense of urgency, more effort on the defensive end.”

As a result, the Heat entered halftime in a 17-point hole.

“They were definitely the assertive ones, the ones that were playing on their terms in the first half and that got us in a hole,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said.

The Heat made a few big pushes in the second half to cut into that deficit, but the Pacers had a strong response each time before time ran out for Miami.

The Heat opened the second half on a 27-18 run to cut the deficit to eight with 2:21 left in the third quarter. The Pacers then answered with an 8-1 run to push their lead back up to 15.

Trailing by 14 points with 7:23 left in the fourth quarter, the Heat made a huge push to go on a 16-4 run and trim the deficit to just two points with 3:21 to play. But the Pacers again responded, this time with a 10-4 run to bump their lead back up to eight with 1:25 left.

The Heat kept fighting, though, scoring five unanswered points to pull within three with 22.3 seconds remaining.

On the ensuing inbounds pass, the Heat then fouled Pacers center Myles Turner to preserve the game clock. But Turner made both free throws to give the Pacers a four-point lead with 17.1 seconds left.

The Heat then got a 28-foot three-pointer from Tyler Herro to keep its comeback hopes alive, cutting the deficit to one with 11.4 seconds to play.

The Heat was again forced to foul to prolong the game, this time sending Aaron Nesmith to the free-throw line. Nesmith hit both free throws to put the Pacers ahead by three with 6.6 seconds remaining.

Instead of allowing the Heat to go for a potential game-tying three, the Pacers opted to foul Herro when he caught the inbounds pass with 3.6 seconds to play. Herro made the first free throw to pull the Heat within two points and then attempted to miss the second free throw so the Heat could try to grab the offensive rebound to tie or win the game, but Heat center Kevin Love was called for a lane violation to negate the foul shot and give the Pacers the ball back.

The Pacers then dribbled out the clock to clinch the important win.

The Pacers outscored the Heat 58-42 in the paint and 27-24 from three-point range to come away with the narrow victory.

Seven Pacers players finished with double-digit points as part of a balanced attack led by T.J. McConnell, Turner and Pascal Siakam.

McConnell continued to hurt the Heat, finishing with 22 points on 11-of-14 shooting from the field in 27 minutes off the Pacers’ bench. McConnell, who is averaging 8.5 points per game this season, averaged 21 points per game in the two games he played against the Heat this season.

Turner finished with 22 points and 13 rebounds, and Siakam added 18 points and eight rebounds.

Pacers All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton finished with 12 points and eight assists, while shooting just 3 of 10 from the field and 2 of 7 from three-point range. But Haliburton’s play-making and the shot-making of those around him lifted Indiana to the victory.

Jimmy Butler scored a team-high 20 points for the Heat, to go with seven rebounds and eight assists.

Bam Adebayo recorded 20 points, 12 rebounds and three assists for Miami.

But it was Nikola Jovic and Herro who fueled the Heat’s second-half rally. Jovic scored 16 points in the final two quarters and Herro scored 14 points in the fourth quarter.

Jovic closed the loss with 18 points, two rebounds and two assists.

Herro ended the night with 21 points in 31 minutes off the bench in his second game back from injury.

In the end, the 22-point first-half hole was too much for the Heat to overcome.

“It’s great to say we fought back, we were resilient and we did all of that,” Butler said. “But we still lost. So none of that matters.”

How damaging was Sunday’s loss? The Heat now needs the Pacers to lose two of their final three games to have a chance to pass them in the Eastern Conference standings.

With the Heat, Pacers and Philadelphia 76ers vying for the coveted sixth spot in the East to avoid the NBA’s play-in tourney, the Heat’s loss to the Pacers paired with the 76ers’ win over the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday dropped the Heat from seventh to eighth-place in the East.

The Heat (43-35) is now a half-game behind the seventh-place 76ers (44-35) and 1.5 games behind the sixth-place Indiana Pacers (45-34).

It gets worse.

With Sunday’s win, the Pacers also clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Heat. That’s because the Pacers won the three-game regular-season series 2-1.

In addition, the Pacers clinched the top spot in a potential three-way tiebreaker between the Heat, Pacers and 76ers, which will likely come down to aggregate head-to-head record between the three teams. The Pacers went 4-2 against the Heat and 76ers this season, the Heat went 3-4 against the Pacers and 76ers this season, and the 76ers went 3-4 against the Heat and Pacers this season.

That means the Heat is essentially two games behind the Pacers in the loss column because Indiana would win a tie.

For the Heat to now pass the Pacers in the standings to avoid the play-in tournament, Miami needs to win its final four regular-season games (at Hawks on Tuesday, vs. Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday, vs. Raptors on Friday and vs. Raptors on Sunday) and the Pacers (at Raptors on Tuesday, at Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday and vs. Hawks on Sunday) must drop at least two of their final three regular-season games.

If the Heat can’t pass the Pacers, the only way Miami can avoid the play-in tournament is by complete collapses by either the Cleveland Cavaliers, Orlando Magic and/or New York Knicks during the final week of the regular season.

In other words, an appearance in the play-in tournament for the second straight season now looks very likely for the Heat.

“This game is beyond us,” Spoelstra said. “We’ll go through our after-action review and quick teaching points from this, certainly the effort from one half to the second half. But we got to get ready for Atlanta and make sure we’re our best version for that game.”

The play-in tournament, which features the seventh-through-10th-place teams competing for the final two playoff seeds in each conference, begins on April 16 just two days after the Heat’s regular-season finale.

Butler was in attack mode and he had some Playoff Jimmy spurts, but it ultimately wasn’t enough.

Butler played an aggressive and attacking style from the start, consistently driving into the paint and throwing his body around in an effort to finish around the basket.

The problem is that Butler struggled to finish around the basket.

Butler shot just 4 of 10 from inside the paint, including 2 of 5 at the rim. He had five shots blocked on Sunday to finish just 7 of 16 from the field.

But Butler did generate 12 free throws — the most he’s taken in a game since March 5. He finished a perfect 12 of 12 from the foul line.

Rozier played through a neck injury, but he was held out of the fourth quarter.

The Heat added Rozier to the injury report just a few hours before tip-off on Sunday, listing him as questionable because of neck stiffness.

Rozier ended up playing in the game in his usual starting role, but he was limited by the neck issue. He finished the loss with just four points on 2-of-7 shooting from the field and 0-of-1 shooting from three-point range in 22 minutes.

“I never like to make excuses, but I shouldn’t have went today,” Rozier said after the game. “I shouldn’t have played. I felt like I hurt the team by trying to be a warrior and get out there.”

After playing 14:44 in the first half and the first 7:01 of the second half, he spent the rest of the game on the bench.

“I just didn’t go back in the fourth,” Rozier said. “It was just coach’s decision.”

Rozier’s hope is that he’ll feel better in time to play Tuesday against the Hawks.

The Heat’s struggles in Indianapolis continued.

After Sunday’s loss, the Heat fell to 14-48 in regular-season games played against the Pacers in Indianapolis.

The Heat actually entered with five wins in its past nine regular-season games in Indianapolis, but dropped 10 straight games in Indianapolis before that nine-game stretch.

Of course, the Heat has the advantage over the Pacers when it comes to their playoff matchups. The Heat has won four of its five playoff series against the Pacers, with the most recent one coming in 2020 in the Disney bubble.