Advertisement

Super Bowl 2024: Your guide to betting individual player props in Super Bowl LVIII

Nick Bromberg
College football and motorsports writer
·6 min read
6

There's money to be made in the Super Bowl player prop market. Assuming you make the correct bets, of course.

BetMGM has loads of player prop bets available ahead of Sunday's game between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. You can bet on the yardage totals of nearly every offensive player set to play in the game as well as who will score a touchdown.

If you're looking to jump into the player prop market for the Super Bowl, here's a quick guide to making your bets.

Passing yards

Mahomes has thrown for 261 or more yards nine times in 19 games this season and once in three postseason games. That one over was a 262-yard effort against the Miami Dolphins.

In three Super Bowls, Mahomes has gone over 260.5 twice. His only under came a season ago against the Eagles when he threw for 182 yards and three touchdowns. The 49ers haven’t given up 261 yards or more passing since Jalen Hurts and Marcus Mariota combined to throw for 287 yards in a blowout loss on Dec. 3.

Just over three-fourths of the money bet on Mahomes’ yardage prop is on the over, and a remarkable 95% of the money is on Mahomes to not throw an interception during the game.

Mahomes’ over/under for completions is at 25.5 with 91% of the money on the over at +100. Over 90% of the money is also on Mahomes to throw 37 or more passes on Sunday.

[How to watch the Super Bowl: TV channels, streaming and mobile options]

Purdy averaged nearly 268 yards per game during the regular season and threw for 245 yards against the Packers and 258 yards against the Lions in the postseason. He’s thrown for less than 200 yards just once this season and has gone over 246.5 yards 12 times in 18 games.

The Chiefs are stingy against the pass, however. Opposing quarterbacks threw for just 3,001 yards in the regular season and Kansas City has held the three QBs its played this postseason in check. Both Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen failed to break the 200-yard mark, while Lamar Jackson threw for 272 yards on 37 attempts in the AFC title game.

Bettors are also eyeing the over on Purdy’s yardage total. Approximately two-thirds of bets and money are on the over and 99% of the money — yes, really — is on Purdy to throw at least one interception at -120 odds.

If Purdy hits the over on his passing yards total, bettors are thinking it’s because he hits on a few big plays. A slight majority (57%) of the money is on 20 or fewer completions while 95% of the money is on Purdy to attempt 31 or fewer passes.

LAS VEGAS, NV - FEBRUARY 05: San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) and Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) meet on stage during the Super Bowl LVIII Opening Night presented by Gatorade featuring the AFC Champions Kansas City Chiefs and the NFC Champions San Francisco 49ers on Monday, Feb. 5, 2024, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Marc Sanchez/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Brock Purdy is playing in his first Super Bowl while Patrick Mahomes is making his fourth Super Bowl appearance. (Photo by Marc Sanchez/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Rushing yards

McCaffrey topped 91 yards 10 times during the regular season and has rushed for 98 yards and 90 yards in the postseason. The Chiefs have been worse against the run than they have against the pass this year; if you think the 49ers will win the Super Bowl, then you probably think McCaffrey is in line for a big game.

Pacheco has gone over his total in each of the Chiefs’ three postseason games so far. He rushed for 89 yards against Miami, 97 yards against Buffalo and 68 yards against Baltimore. The Chiefs have also given him 24 carries in two of those games — he never had more than 20 carries in a single game during the regular season.

Mahomes rushed for 41 yards against the Dolphins. He has rushed for at least 27 yards in eight of 16 postseason games throughout his career. Purdy, meanwhile, was a serious rushing threat in the second half of the 49ers’ comeback win over the Lions.

Samuel has been dealing with a shoulder injury this postseason and had three carries for seven yards against the Lions. Since rushing five times for 30 yards against the Cowboys in October, Samuel hasn’t gotten more than four carries in a single game and has gone for 17 or more yards in three games.

So far, bettors like the over on all five of those players’ rushing totals.

Receiving yards

Kelce and Rice are the top two players in the receiving category as the Kansas City passing game has evolved to feature both of them as much as possible during the postseason. Kelce had 93 catches in 15 regular-season games, and Rice had 79 catches in 16 games. No other Chiefs player had more than 44 and no other receiver or tight end had more than 28 catches.

Kelce has gone over 70.5 yards in all three of the Chiefs’ postseason games this year. You have to go back to the 2019 postseason to find his last playoff game with fewer than 70 yards. He had six catches for 43 yards and a TD against the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV.

Aiyuk led the 49ers in receptions and yards during the regular season as he averaged nearly 18 yards a catch. Samuel was the team’s third-leading receiver behind Kittle with 60 catches for 892 yards. McCaffrey had 30 receiving yards against the Packers and 42 yards on four catches against the Lions. He was targeted a team-high 12 times against Green Bay and has gotten at least five targets in eight of the 49ers’ last 10 games.

Watson is an interesting sleeper play as one catch could put him over or close to his total. Watson averaged 17 yards a catch in the regular season and had one catch for 16 yards against the Ravens after he was held without a catch against the Bills.

At the moment, Bettors are overwhelmingly backing Kelce, Rice, Samuel, Kittle and McCaffrey to go over their receiving totals and are split on Aiyuk. Just 54% of the money is on the over for Aiyuk — possibly because he’ll presumably draw L’Jarius Sneed in coverage for most of the game — and 53% of bets are on the over for Watson’s yardage total.

To score a TD

  • Christian McCaffrey (-225)

  • Isiah Pacheco (-130)

  • Travis Kelce (-115)

  • Rashee Rice (+130)

  • Deebo Samuel (+140)

  • Brandon Aiyuk (+155)

  • George Kittle (+175)

With four touchdowns in two playoff games and 25 touchdowns overall, McCaffrey is the easy favorite to score at some point during the game. Pacheco has found the end zone with regularity for the Chiefs as well, so he’s the clear No. 2 favorite.

Kelce has scored the Chiefs’ first touchdown in their last two playoff games, while Rice scored against Miami and had seven regular-season touchdowns. If you’re taking Aiyuk to score, it may be worth a flier on him as the game’s first TD scorer. His odds to score the first TD (+1000) are slightly higher than Kittle’s (+900) despite having more first TDs (3) than Kittle did (2) in the regular season.