Super Bowl betting: Do's and don'ts for Rams vs. Bengals

This is likely going to be the most bet Super Bowl of all time. With the expansion of mobile sports betting in the last year, the books are probably salivating over a large group of new bettors. The Super Bowl is the most publicly bet sporting event of the year. At the end of the day, we all have one common goal: beat the book.

This piece isn’t about best bets in the big game. I’ll be posting those on Wednesday. In addition to what I’ve learned from betting Super Bowls, I’ve asked a bunch of close friends who have been betting for many years for their best advice when betting the big game. Here's what we have:

DON’T: BET PROPS WITHOUT HANDICAPPING THEM

I don’t know how many times I can stress how sharp these numbers are. There are rarely offensive players flying under a sportsbook’s radar at this point. You have to do some work if you want to profit from betting the Super Bowl. I’ve heard so many people say, “Oh, that looks like a good number.” Then they just bet it. This boggles my mind!

DO: YOUR RESEARCH

The best way to handicap props is by looking at not only what the player has done lately, but looking at what his opposing defense has allowed recently. I never just handicap a prop with, “Player X has gone over this prop in six of his last seven.” What if those performances were against horrendous defenses?

Let’s say Rams tight end Tyler Higbee is healthy to play. The Bengals have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends this year. Tight end props have been my favorite way to bet against Cincinnati this season. The handicap is more about how bad the Bengals have been against the position and not as much about how good Higbee has been recently. Cover all the bases when handicapping.

DON’T: BET UNDER PROPS TOO EARLY

Public bettors love to bet overs. This is especially true in the Super Bowl. For most of the regular season, oddsmakers will tell you only sharps move the lines. In the Super Bowl, a lot of big money is coming in. The public, who just loves to throw money around, can actually move these lines in public directions — meaning the over. If you’re looking to bet a prop under, just wait.

An example: Let’s say you love the Joe Burrow under passing yards prop. I could see someone who loves the Bengals or LSU hammering the over on this bet. The book will then move the number up, and if you wait long enough you’ll get the higher and better number to bet the under. That's why unders and “no” bets tend to be the sharper side in Super Bowls.

DO: BET OVER PROPS EARLY

The opposite can be said for betting over props. I see way more props on the rise leading up to the Super Bowl than props going down. The sooner you bet over props, probably the better. If you do take this approach, try to find the smaller markets. I hate betting overs on the mainstream quarterback passing yards, wide receiver yards or running back rushing yards props. These are way too public and the number is probably spot on.

Props I like to bet overs on are pass attempts, longest reception, running back receiving yards, tight end receiving yards, total tackles, kicker points and field goals. These are smaller, more untapped markets that new bettors probably never handicapped before.

DON’T: BET ON THE COIN TOSS!

There aren’t many “fun bets” legal sportsbooks give us. But the coin toss happens to be one of them. And of course it is. It’s a 50/50 chance, and they’re charging you up to 10 cents for it.

For example, if you make a straight up bet for $100 with a friend, heads or tails, loser pays you $100. However, the sportsbook is likely charging you between -103 to -110, which means you have to pay between $103 to $110 to make $100. You’re giving the books an extra $3 to $10 to make your $100. It makes no sense to pay that when there’s absolutely zero way of handicapping a coin toss. The mathematical probability is locked in. Just ask Bills quarterback Josh Allen.

DO: HAVE FUN!

It is the biggest U.S. sporting event of the year. This piece is all about serious betting and making a profit off the Super Bowl. I hope it helps you to make smarter bets, but I know betting makes it way more fun. This is the one game where you may say, “Let’s just bet the board and have a good time.” But I promise you, you’ll look way cooler at your Super Bowl party if you’re winning.