Steve Kornacki's guide to the Kentucky Derby: Biggest storylines, best bets

The horses are entered, the post positions are drawn, and the morning line is set. The final countdown to Saturday’s 150th Kentucky Derby is truly underway, which means it’s crunch time for those — present company very much included — hoping to dazzle our friends (and maybe fatten our wallets) by picking the winner.

Sifting through this massive field of 20 horses, all of them still-developing 3-year-olds and many of them with just a few starts under their belts, presents an enticing challenge whether you’re a veteran horseplayer or a casual fan.

There are countless ways to handicap the Derby. What follows are a few data points, trends and angles that may (hopefully) help shape your thinking and sharpen your opinions about this year’s Run for the Roses.

Two important notes: There are several references here to the Derby qualifying system implemented in 2013. It’s an important reference point, because it altered the basic structure of the race.

Before 2013, Derby slots were allotted based simply on money won in any kind of stakes races; that allowed horses who weren’t natural Derby fits (short-distance sprinters, for instance) to make it in and distort the dynamics of the race.

Since 2013, Derby qualification has been based on points awarded to the top finishers in a series of specifically designated races. The system has produced fields much heavier on horses who have demonstrated success under Derby-like conditions.

Also, the term “crossed the wire first” appears here many times in reference to recent trends. That’s due to the 2019 and 2021 Derbies, in which the horses who crossed the finishing wire first — Maximum Security in 2019 and Medina Spirit in 2021 — were ultimately disqualified, with the second-place finishers designated as the official winners. But for our purposes here, it’s more useful to use the horses who initially finished first in those Derbies.

Favorites for a reason

In a field as big as the Derby — 20 horses, easily the most that will run in a major race in the U.S. this year — it’s natural to expect chaos and to look for a long shot that’ll blow up your bank account for only a small investment. And, certainly, we’ve witnessed some massive Derby upsets; who among us doesn’t wish they’d plopped down a few bucks on Rich Strike at 80-1 two years ago?

But as thrilling as the Rich Strikes are, they’re also rare. In horse racing, favorites win around 35% of all races run across the country in a given year. And since the Derby switched to its current qualifying system in 2013, their hit rate in this race is even higher:

That’s six of 11 Derbies (54.5%) since 2013 in which the betting favorite has won. And even when the favorite has fallen short, it has still tended to run well, never crossing the wire worse than fifth. If you had simply placed the minimum bet of $2 to win on every favorite since 2013, you would now have a profit of $19.40, nearly double your total investment.

That having been said, this year’s favorite, Fierceness, enters the Derby with a peculiar track record. He has won three previous races in absolutely dominating fashion, by a combined total of 31 lengths. But his two other races have been total clunkers: a 20 ¼-length seventh-place finish in last fall’s Champagne Stakes and a baffling third-place finish (as the 1-5 favorite against suspect competition) in February’s Holy Bull Stakes. Many see Fierceness as the ultimate boom or bust horse — one who either wins with ease or loses in a rout.

Pace: Will there be another meltdown?

This may be the single most significant variable in the race. The general rule is that the faster the pace is early, the more unsustainable it becomes for the horses on or near the lead. They essentially use up too much fuel too soon and have little in reserve for the stretch run. That allows the closers — horses that sit far off the fast early pace and conserve energy — to blow by the tiring leaders in the final stages of the race.

What makes this year’s Derby so fascinating is that, when it comes to pace, the two favorites embody polar-opposite running styles.

Sierra Leone is a deep closer; he prefers to sit far off and slowly rev up for one big charge. He stands to benefit if he has a hot pace to run into Saturday. Fierceness, by contrast, has shown a desire to run at or near the front; a pace that heats up too much could doom him if he gets drawn into it. More modest early fractions, by contrast, should put him in a stronger position when the race turns for home.

The recent history of the Derby (since 2013, when the current qualifying system was put in place) demonstrates how crucial pace can be:

Note that the 2013 and 2022 Derbies featured the fastest opening half-miles — and that each was won by a horse who was far, far back at that point. And that the only other recent deep closer to finish first, Mage last year, also did so amid brisk early fractions. Meanwhile, the slower early paces all helped horses on or near the lead stay there. Overall, despite the past two years, early speed has held up fairly well in recent Derbies.

On Saturday, Fierceness’ first task will be to break cleanly and establish his preferred forward position. That alone is no given, because he’s breaking from the 17th post and will need to work his way toward the inside quickly.

But if he does do that, the pace question becomes pivotal. A number of horses will also be scrambling for early position; Track Phantom, T O Password, Dornoch and Just a Touch are among those who could contest the pace. Will they set blazing fractions and — if they do — will it draw Fierceness into an early, draining duel? Or will Fierceness have it his way, getting a modest pace to sit off of before he revs his engine and leaves the field in the dust? The example of Justify above is also worth recalling; he endured a lightning-fast early pace in 2018 and still managed to hold up and win anyway.

Meanwhile, Sierra Leone figures to have company toward the back of the pack, too. Catching Freedom and Honor Marie are two other well-regarded closers who, like Sierra Leone, should be doing their best running late. For all of them, the pace up front can’t get hot enough.

Speed ratings: A threshold number?

Comparing all 20 horses in the field with one another is a daunting task. After all, they’re each only 3 years old and mostly haven’t raced that much, and they’ve taken various routes to the Derby — running in different qualifying races at different tracks with varying configurations and under varying conditions.

Speed ratings are an attempt to flatten all of that out into one easy-to-compare number. Many unique formulas, each with its own proprietary logic, have sprouted up. The best-known is probably the Beyer Speed Figure system, which takes its name from creator Andrew Beyer. Those numbers can be found in the Daily Racing Form, which you’ll probably encounter on any trip to the track. The basic idea: The higher the number, the faster the horse.

When it comes to this year’s Derby, the Beyer ratings offer a potential angle for sizing up the field. Looking at every unrestricted stakes race at least a mile in length that each horse has run, here is the highest Beyer figure each has put up coming into the Derby:

Based on the Beyer Ratings, Fierceness, with a high of 110, towers over the rest of this year’s field — that’s a nine-point advantage over his nearest foes.

Moreover, the 101 high for Japan’s Forever Young is only an unofficial estimate provided by a Beyer figure-maker from a race in the Middle East. And the 101 for Mystik Dan came on a muddy track at Oaklawn Park in February; outside of that race, his best number is only 89, suggesting Mystik Dan may need a wet surface to excel (in other words: If it rains Saturday, he’ll suddenly become a popular pick).

Horses entering the Derby with the highest Beyer ratings don’t always win, but since 2000 six of them have: Justify (2018), California Chrome (2014), Street Sense (2007), Big Brown (2008), War Emblem (2002) and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000). And a seventh, Maximum Security (2019), crossed the wire first but was ultimately disqualified for interference. All told, a dozen horses who’ve crossed the wire first since 2000 came in with one of the three highest Beyers.

Also of note: Since 2000, all but two horses that crossed the wire first in the Derby had previously posted at least a 94 Beyer rating in a stakes race a mile or longer. The two exceptions are two of the most mystifying long-shot winners of all time: Mine That Bird (2009), who came in with a best Beyer of just 81, and Rich Strike (2022), who’d previously maxed out at 84. Neither of them ever won another race after their memorable Derby upsets. As you can see above, exactly half of this year’s field has previously run a 94 Beyer or better.

Fierceness’ 110 Beyer, along with the nine-point gap to the next best, explains why he’s the favorite in this race. But lest anyone think that makes him invincible, consider that the only other Derby horse this century to enter with such a marked Beyer advantage — Bellamy Road, 12 points better than anyone else in 2005 — ended up finishing sixth.

‘Final fractions’

Credit for this angle goes to Jennie Rees, a decorated horse racing journalist who handles publicity for Kentucky Downs. Because the 1 ¼-mile Derby is typically the longest any of these horses have ever run, her idea is that any previous ability they’ve shown to finish powerfully provides an important clue about their fitness and endurance.

To measure that, Rees proposed looking at how each horse finished its final pre-Derby prep race, crediting those that either ran the last quarter-mile in 13 seconds or less or the last three-eighths of a mile in 38 seconds or less. Those benchmarks haven’t been perfect, but the vast majority of recent Derby winners have checked at least one of the boxes.

Which members of this year’s field qualify for consideration under the “final fractions” theory? For that, we owe deep gratitude to J. Keeler Johnson, a Bloodhorse contributor who performed some tediously heroic math to devise numbers for each horse. Because exact official times aren’t available from every Derby prep race, there’s subjectivity involved here, and not every number cruncher will come up with the same times.

But Johnson offers a meticulous and compelling methodology, and he found that eight horses in this year’s field fail to meet either criteria: Catalytic, Dornoch, Epic Ride, Grand Mo the First, Just a Touch, Stronghold, Sierra Leone, T O Password and West Saratoga.

Most of them are long shots — with the glaring exceptions of Sierra Leone and Just a Touch, who finished first and second respectively in the Blue Grass Stakes a month ago. Given his overpowering stretch run in that race, it’s particularly surprising to find Sierra Leone’s name on the list. And some contend that the Keeneland surface he was running on that day was biased toward front-running horses — making his ability to come from behind and win quite impressive, no matter the fractional times.

Every other horse in the Derby field checks both “final fractions” boxes, except for long shot Society Man, who misses on one and only barely makes the cut on the other (a 12.95-second final quarter-mile in the Wood Memorial).

The Japan factor

Back in 1989, an American horse named Sunday Silence attained glory by winning the Derby and the Preakness, the first two jewels of the Triple Crown. And yet, when he was retired from racing, Sunday Silence found himself unwanted as a stallion — until a Japanese breeder swooped in and took him to his home country. There, to an astonishing degree, Sunday Silence flourished as a sire, essentially serving as the foundation for modern Japanese racing.

After decades of steady progress, Japanese-bred horses — most of them direct descendants of Sunday Silence — are exploding onto the international stage, having taken down two prestigious Breeders’ Cup races and the world’s two richest races (the $20 million Saudi Cup and the $12 million Dubai World Cup) in just the last few years. It feels like a Derby breakthrough is only a matter of time.

This year, two Japanese-bred horses, Forever Young and T O Password, are in the field. Both descend from Sunday Silence, as did the four previous Japanese-bred horses to make the Run for the Roses:

Those results aren’t much to look at, though the sample size is limited and Derma Sotogake finished sixth last year only after he encountered issues at the starting gate and traffic during the race. In other words, his performance was stronger than it looks on paper.

There are some unique unknowns with this year’s Japanese entrants. They both had to endure long overseas trips just to get to Kentucky and will be running on North American soil for the first time. How will they adjust?

And both will have to defy some other history, too. In Forever Young’s case, that has to do with the UAE Derby in Dubai, the race that he won to qualify for Louisville. Horses going to the Kentucky Derby from that race are a combined 0-19, never finishing better than fifth. Meanwhile, T O Password, who has raced only in Japan, has made just two starts in his entire career. No modern horse has ever won the Derby with such little experience, and almost none have even tried. To find a horse that pulled that off, you’d have to go all the way back to Leonatus in 1883.

The stratospheric trajectory of Japanese racing makes both of this year’s entrants at least worth keeping an eye on. But only Forever Young is considered a main contender. He has won all five races he has run, faced international competition in Dubai and turned in flashy performances that certainly look Derby-worthy. Now, 35 years later, it’s possible the name Sunday Silence will resound once more.

My pick for the Kentucky Derby

Cards on the table first: I’ve picked a grand total of one Derby winner in the last 10 years — and that winner was later disqualified (although I did get to keep the money). That itself may actually be a productive angle for you to consider, one that my friends and family members have used successfully before: If I’m picking it, stay away from it.

When it comes to this race, though, I’m not going with the favorite. For one thing, I just hate taking favorites, especially in a race like the Derby, with so many horses running and so much potential chaos. Fierceness is clearly the most talented, but to me he has been too inconsistent, and too much can go wrong breaking from such an outside post.

And Sierra Leone, the other potential favorite, will face a unique challenge with his come-from-the-clouds running style. With 19 other horses on the track, he’ll have to maneuver his way through and around traffic like he has never confronted before. As with Fierceness, I won’t be at all surprised if he wins, but too much could go wrong for him in this race for me to take him at short odds.

What I love is trying to find a long shot, and I’ve got my eye on one in particular. He has a running style that has fared well in the past, not contesting the pace but not sitting so far off it that he gets buried in traffic. His most recent race, the Arkansas Derby, was his best yet, and there’s reason to think he could improve further. He also checks both “final fractions” boxes, and his top Beyer speed figure is 95 — on the right side of the line, where just about every Derby winner this century has been.

And, hey, I’m sentimental, too. His trainer is 88 years old, he has won four Derbies before, and he still heads to the barn in the wee hours of every morning in search of more. I’ll admit my heart is probably talking my head into this one, but the odds will be big and the Derby only comes around once a year, so why not? I’m going with D. Wayne Lukas and Just Steel.

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com