Sooners a CFP contender? One ESPN analyst isn’t so sure
We continue to hear more and more optimism coming from the Oklahoma Sooners.
Whether it was from Big 12 media days a couple weeks ago or Tuesday’s OU Football media day, the positive vibes are strong in Norman. But some nationally have been skeptical. There may be skepticism of the personnel or of Brent Venables. Both of which are reasonable.
Count ESPN college football writer Heather Dinich (ESPN+) in the skeptical camp at the moment. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Oklahoma a 10.7% chance to make the playoff, something Dinich disagrees with.
After a 6-7 season that included a 49-0 loss to rival Texas, expectations should be higher but not that high. Even the defense, which is Brent Venables’ forte, hit the worst marks by a defense under Venables in his career. – Dinich, ESPN
Dinich does think the committee will look favorably upon the Sooners if they can win the Oklahoma and Texas “state titles.”
Unofficial state titles in both Oklahoma and Texas. OU can win its home state by beating Tulsa and Oklahoma State on the road, and it can get the edge in Texas with wins over SMU, Texas and TCU. If OU is going to be taken seriously as a CFP contender, it doesn’t have to look far to build its case in the committee meeting room. – Dinich, ESPN
But ultimately, she feels they won’t like the weak schedule. That’s why the Texas and Oklahoma State games are so important. Even though Oklahoma State may not be on the same level as Texas, it’s a “move the needle” type of game in a hostile road environment.
Not playing Baylor, Kansas State, or Texas Tech will certainly hurt the Sooners in strength of schedule discussions.
This will be the first time since 2000 Oklahoma will not play a Power 5 opponent in a regular season nonconference game. The Sooners were originally scheduled to play Georgia, but the game was canceled because of OU’s eventual move to the SEC. The Sooners also face three of the four new conference members in Cincinnati, BYU and UCF, which replace Baylor, Kansas State and Texas Tech three of the six Big 12 teams that beat OU last year. – Dinich, ESPN
Oklahoma’s strength of schedule is a legitimate concern. It schedule looks a lot different if the Georgia Bulldogs were on the schedule still. But that’s a short-term sacrifice for a long-term gain for the Sooners.
Dinich isn’t speaking unreasonably when discussing the concerns she has about Oklahoma’s chances to make the playoffs. Though there’s optimism, there’s a lot that still needs to be proven on the football field before the Sooners can be taken seriously as a national title contender.
Making the playoff is a little bit of a stretch, but with that schedule can be obtainable. The problem is there’s little room for error for Oklahoma if it wants to play for something meaningful in the postseason.
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