Silva's Week 3 Matchups

1:00PM ET Games

Atlanta @ Dallas

Missing last year's Big Three of Tony Romo (clavicle), Dez Bryant (foot), and DeMarco Murray (Eagles), the Cowboys host Atlanta with a Vegas team total of just 22 points in a game with a 45-point over-under. I think the O/U on this game would've been over 50 were Romo and Dez playing. ... Brandon Weeden is 5-16 in his career as a starter and has an eight-game losing streak dating back to December of 2012. #QBWinz, I know, but Weeden deserves the lion's share of blame with more career interceptions than touchdowns and a 56.4% completion rate. He fell on his face in a 2014 spot start against Arizona with far more surrounding talent than this year's Cowboys boast, going 18-of-33 for 183 yards and two picks before completing a garbage-time three-yard score to Bryant with just over a minute left in a three-score loss. Weeden has arm strength, but lacks athleticism and is notorious for picking which receiver he'll throw to coming out of the huddle, then never coming off his first read. Even against a talent-deficient Falcons defense, you want no part of a Dez-less Weeden in fantasy. ... Weeden's target distribution off the bench last Sunday against Philadelphia: Cole Beasley and Lance Dunbar 2; Jason Witten, Gavin Escobar, and Terrance Williams 1. ... Williams has the most big-play ability of what's left of the Cowboys' wideout corps, and last week caught Eagles CB Byron Maxwell sound asleep on a crossing route, resulting in a 42-yard TD. Williams has been an inconsistent player throughout his career, however, will ultimately suffer from the severe quarterback downgrade, and may spend most of this game in Falcons top CB Desmond Trufant's coverage. Williams is a boom-or-bust WR3 who would have busted last Sunday if not for Maxwell's late-game mental error.

The fact that the post-Romo Cowboys will surely place a greater emphasis on the run will work against Beasley, a small slot receiver whose fantasy appeal is wholly volume driven. ... Witten should theoretically serve as a "safety valve" for Weeden, but ups and downs are likely for Dallas' tight end. Witten did produce a somewhat respectable 6-62 line in Weeden's spot start last year, seeing seven targets. Now nursing twin ankle sprains in addition to a knee sprain, however, Witten is in an increasingly rough spot with both consistency and injury concerns. ... Through two weeks, Joseph Randle has averaged 19 touches for 86 yards per game and 3.41 yards per carry while playing 41% of Dallas' snaps. Darren McFadden has totaled 43.5 yards per game on 19% of the downs with a 2.94 YPC average. Dunbar's snap rate is 40% with just one carry for eight yards, but 11 receptions for 115 yards. I don't think the losses of offensive steam engines Romo and Dez bode well for anyone in the Cowboys' backfield for both scoring and game flow reasons. Randle is a low-end RB2 against an overachieving Falcons run defense that limited Eagles and Giants RBs to a combined 137 yards on 37 carries (3.70 YPC) in Weeks 1 and 2. Philly backs did rush twice for TDs at Atlanta. The early-season failures of Dallas' running back corps bode well for Christine Michael's chances at earning a significant role down the road.

Rookie Tevin Coleman's fractured rib puts Atlanta's running game onto the shoulders of change-of-pace back Devonta Freeman, owner of a 3.34 YPC average through his first 18 NFL games. Freeman is a natural in the passing game, and sheer volume in a solid offense puts him in the weekly RB2 discussion until Coleman returns. Freeman opens as the Falcons' lead back with a tougher matchup than it may appear, however. Keyed by a healthy WLB Sean Lee, the Cowboys' run defense has been lights out in the early going. Combined against Dallas, Giants and Eagles RBs managed 78 yards and one score on 37 carries (2.11 YPC) in the first two weeks. In last Sunday's road upset of Philadelphia, the Cowboys relentlessly threw DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, and Darren Sproles for stuffs and losses. Freeman should flirt with 20 touches per game in the absence of Coleman -- rendering Freeman quite useful as a fantasy commodity -- but don't expect rushing fireworks in Week 3. ... While the Cowboys' ability to dominate time of possession and therefore limit enemy offenses' field time may diminish with Dez and Romo out of the picture, it's certainly been a problem for their opponents to date. Dallas ranks first in the NFL in possession time and 26th in defensive snaps. The Cowboys have also played excellent pass defense so far, holding Eli Manning and Sam Bradford to 43-of-73 passing (58.9%) for 417 yards (5.71 YPA), one touchdown, and two interceptions. Including Atlanta's underwhelming 23-point Vegas team total, there are enough red flags here that I'll be fading Matt Ryan this week in DFS.

Ryan's Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Julio Jones 26; Leonard Hankerson 15; Freeman 12; Roddy White and Jacob Tamme 9; Coleman 3. ... Moving around more than ever in new OC Kyle Shanahan's scheme, Julio ranks second in the NFL in targets and receiving yards (276). He's a top-three receiver play each week. On Sunday, Jones will run his routes at inconsistent Dallas boundary corners Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr. ... In last week's win over the Giants, Hankerson had the game I thought he might deliver in Week 1. "HankTime" played 67% of Atlanta's snaps, parlaying 11 targets into 6-77-1. Hankerson nearly had a second touchdown, only to be ruled down at the goal line before Coleman punched it in. Roddy took a backseat, goose egging on a single look despite logging a 79% playing time clip. While I'd have a hard time trusting either of the Falcons' complementary wideouts as a Week 3 fantasy start, I wouldn't be shocked if Hankerson overtook White in the starting lineup by midseason. ... After a nondescript opener, Tamme delivered a 4-77 line on six targets last Sunday against the G-Men. Tamme is playing 75% of the Falcons' snaps. While his weekly involvement seems bound to frustrate, Tamme is worth a look as a streamer against Cowboys DC Rod Marinelli's Tampa 2-style defense, which last year allowed the most receptions in the league to tight ends. This year, Giants and Eagles tight ends combined for nine catches against Dallas in the first two games.

Score Prediction: Falcons 24, Cowboys 20

Indianapolis @ Tennessee

The sky is falling on the 0-2 Seahawks and 0-2 Colts, or so Twitter told me. Look for a rebound game from Indianapolis' offense in Week 3, taking on a Titans defense that was gashed for two long touchdown bombs by Johnny Manziel last week and has yet to be truly tested after facing just 15 pass attempts from Manziel following a Week 1 date with Jameis Winston in his first NFL start. Andrew Luck posted a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio in last season's two wins over Tennessee, while Luck hit 400 yards with three touchdowns in a Week 8 date with then-Steelers DC Dick LeBeau, who is now running the Titans' defense. I wonder if recency bias might lead to Luck being a bit underowned in DFS this week. ... With Indy favored by three on the road, this is a game that should get Frank Gore going. Gore was a chain-moving grinder (3.83 YPC) in brutal matchups against the Bills and Jets to open the season, but has looked spry on his carries. He had multiple strong runs negated by penalties last Monday night versus New York and uncharacteristically lost a goal-line fumble. In Weeks 1-2, Tennessee permitted 189 yards and a TD on 46 runs to (4.11 YPC) to Browns and Bucs RBs. At worst, this is an above-average matchup for Gore.

Luck's target distribution: T.Y. Hilton 21; Donte Moncrief 19; Andre Johnson 17; Phillip Dorsett 9; Dwayne Allen 6; Josh Robinson 5; Gore 4; Coby Fleener 1. ... Despite playing through a knee bruise, Hilton logged 84% of the Colts' snaps in last Monday night's loss to the Jets, and should be healthier this week. Hilton is a WR2 with WR1 upside against a Titans defense that has allowed three passing plays of 40-plus yards, tied for second most in the NFL. ... After the signing of Johnson and selection of Dorsett, I entered the season skeptical how much Moncrief would play this year. I've been dead wrong about him. Moncrief has a 76% snap rate through two weeks and noticeably played ahead of Johnson in two-wide sets for stretches against the Jets. The overall WR8 in PPR so far, Moncrief is an every-week WR2 for as long as he maintains this usage. ... Johnson's early-season performance suggests he belongs behind Moncrief on the depth chart, and should be treated as a dicey WR3 play in fantasy leagues. Managing scoreless stat lines of 4-24 and 3-27 against the Bills and Jets, Andre has seen three of the 17 passes thrown at him intercepted while catching just over 41% of his targets. ... Clearly behind Hilton, Moncrief, and Johnson, Dorsett is playing only 22% of Indy's offensive downs. Dorsett should bust some sporadic big plays over the course of the year, but they'll be virtually impossible to predict. ... Allen (ankle) appears unlikely to face the Titans, setting up Fleener for streamer TE1 and DFS usage. In Allen's three missed games last season, Fleener posted receiving lines of 2-28, 4-127-2, and 5-56-2. Fleener added a 7-144 number in a Week 11 game against the Patriots where Allen left early. Fleener scored three TDs in last year's two games against the Titans.

Coming off a letdown loss in Cleveland, the Titans enter Week 3 with a Vegas team total of just over 21 points. ... Injury ravaged at cornerback and short on pass rush, the Colts were touched up by borderline-NFL starters Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Fitzpatrick for a combined 36-of-53 passing (67.9%), 439 yards (8.28 YPA), three touchdowns, and one interception in Weeks 1-2. Indy has one sack as a team. While Marcus Mariota makes for an intriguing DFS tournament option, his shortage of rushing usage lowers his fantasy floor. The dual-threat rookie has scrambled just five times through two games, gaining 25 yards. Even in a favorable matchup, I'm not ready to anoint Mariota a fantasy QB1 just yet. Mariota's ceiling may also be lowered by the Titans' unwillingness to push the ball outside the numbers. Through two games, 27 of Mariota's 34 completions (79%) have occurred on passes thrown inside the numbers or behind the line of scrimmage. This offense needs more Dorial Green-Beckham. ... The Colts have played solid run defense early on, yielding 192 yards and two touchdowns on 52 carries (3.67 YPC) to Jets and Bills RBs. While I'd still view this as a favorable draw for Bishop Sankey, Sankey's usage remains his primary obstacle. Failing to build on a promising opener, Sankey was out-gained, out-snapped, and out-touched by Dexter McCluster in last week's loss to Cleveland, as the Titans played from behind. Sankey is a shaky low-end RB2/flex play in a matchup where game script could again become problematic. McCluster is a scatback and passing-down specialist. Terrance West is playing his way out of the picture with lost fumbles in back-to-back games.

Mariota's Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Harry Douglas 10; Anthony Fasano and Kendall Wright 8; Sankey and Chase Coffman 6; McCluster and Justin Hunter 4; Delanie Walker 3; DGB 2. ... It's a red flag on all Tennessee pass catchers that Douglas leads the team in targets. On his ten looks, Douglas has three catches for 33 yards. ... Wright took a Week 2 step back (2-17-0) after his big opener, but should pace the Titans in receiving more often than not this year. Wright moves around and plays in the slot enough that he's likely to avoid stingy Colts CB Vontae Davis for the majority of Sunday's game. Ideally, Wright should be a target and catch machine in Tennessee's inside-the-numbers, theoretically high-percentage passing game. I like him as a WR3 in PPR this week. ... This game also sets up well for Walker, though I'd prefer to see him produce before firing him up in a fantasy league. Walker missed Week 2 due to instability in wrist, where he's nursing a ligament sprain. Facing Jeff Cumberland and Charles Clay has surely helped, but it's worth noting the Colts have allowed just four catches for 43 yards and no touchdowns to tight ends so far this year. ... Behind Douglas (84%) and Wright (81%), Hunter logged a 56% snap rate in last week's loss to the Browns, while Green-Beckham played 15% and beat Joe Haden for a 13-yard touchdown. "DGB" remains stash worthy in 12- and 14-team leagues, but he won't become a starting option until the Titans commit to playing him more.

Score Prediction: Colts 27, Titans 20

Oakland @ Cleveland

Even as Derek Carr returns from arguably his career-best game, the Raiders are 3.5-point road dogs in a game with a paltry 42.5-point Vegas total. Oakland's team total is just 19.5 points. ... The Raiders' strongest fantasy play is Latavius Murray facing Cleveland's perennially porous run defense. Through two games, the Browns have silver plattered 303 yards and two TDs on 57 runs (5.32 YPC) to Jets and Titans tailbacks. Continuing to log three-down usage, Murray ranks 11th among running backs in snaps while averaging 18 touches for 83.5 yards per game. I might avoid Latavius in DFS cash games due to game-flow concerns, but he's an RB2 with RB1 upside in season-long leagues and a fine DFS tournament play. ... The Browns' pass defense has been far stouter during the Mike Pettine era, and through two weeks has held its own. Cleveland's pass rush erupted for seven sacks in last week's win over the Titans, and in last year's Week 8 date with the Browns, Carr went 34-of-54 passing for 328 yards, one touchdown, a fumble lost, and four sacks taken. View Carr as a low-end two-quarterback-league starter at Cleveland.

Carr's target distribution on the year: Michael Crabtree 18; Amari Cooper 16; Murray 7; Mychal Rivera 5; Andre Holmes 4; Marcel Reece 3; Clive Walford 2. ... Cooper seemingly has a tough draw versus Joe Haden, but last week dusted Ravens top CB Jimmy Smith for a 68-yard scoring bomb and should be largely matchup proof based on volume. I'm starting Cooper everywhere I own him every week. ... The Week 2 emergence of Crabtree may also discourage the Browns from shadowing Cooper with Haden. Crabtree was a run-after-catch beast versus Baltimore, incessantly flaming LCB Lardarius Webb. Piling up 16 targets, the effort put Crabtree back into WR3 discussion. Still, Oakland's low-scoring projection and Cleveland's stingy backend are concerns for Crabtree's Week 3 outlook. ... Holmes and Seth Roberts are rotating sub-package snaps as Nos. 3 and 4 receivers. ... Rivera played 57% of Oakland's offensive downs last week, while blocker Lee Smith handled 53% and rookie Walford mixed in for 27%. Rivera is the main pass catcher of the group, but through two weeks has just 19 yards on seven targets.

Expect another run-heavy game plan from Cleveland. Playing at home versus a leaky run defense makes it the likeliest approach. In Weeks 1-2, Oakland was gutted for 233 yards and three TDs on 50 carries (4.66 YPC) by Ravens and Bengals RBs. Coming off a tackle-shedding 15-72-1 outburst in last week's win over Tennessee, Isaiah Crowell played himself back into the RB2 conversation. With the Browns installed as 3.5-point favorites, game flow projects to work in Crowell's favor. ... Whereas Crowell has handled 29 touches on 49% of Cleveland's snaps, Duke Johnson has mixed in for 19 touches on 47.5% of the downs. The Browns' backfield is a timeshare, giving Johnson flex appeal in plus draws like this one, even if his effectiveness has been a small-sample disappointment so far. More disappointing has been Johnson's lack of receiving involvement; a passing-game maven by trade, Duke wasn't targeted once in the Browns' first two games. Still, I like Johnson's chances of seeing double-digit touches versus Oakland and plan to start him in a few season-long leagues. It's perhaps notable that Browns brass openly compared Johnson to Giovani Bernard coming out of college. Gio diced up these same Raiders for 88 yards on 14 touches in Week 1, averaging nearly eight yards per carry.

The Browns have elected to re-insert Josh McCown at quarterback, benching Johnny Manziel after he engineered Cleveland's first win of the year on the strength of two touchdown bombs to Travis Benjamin and no turnovers against the Titans. McCown is a downgrade to all Browns skill players. ... Playing just 57% of Cleveland's snaps, Benjamin is a donkey pickup in fantasy leagues. The situational deep threat and return man only ran nine pass routes in last week's two-TD game while rotating with Andrew Hawkins, Brian Hartline, Taylor Gabriel, and Dwayne Bowe. Benjamin is a classic fluke who will appeal only to backwards-thinking point chasers.

Score Prediction: Raiders 20, Browns 17

Cincinnati @ Baltimore

Bengals-Ravens has a pedestrian Vegas total of 44.5 with Baltimore favored by 2.5. The Ravens' team total is 23.5 points. ... In last year's two dates with Bengals DC Paul Guenther, Joe Flacco went 52-of-96 passing (54.2%) for 540 yards (5.63 YPA) with one touchdown and three picks. Cincinnati's backend has stayed stout this year, grading out No. 7 in Football Outsiders' pass-defense DVOA while forcing Philip Rivers into two turnovers and four sacks last Sunday. Flacco is not an attractive QB1. ... The Bengals have been less consistent in run defense, holding Raiders RBs to a combined 14-49-0 rushing line before Chargers RBs went for 24-126-0 against Cincinnati last week, including three 20-plus-yard runs by previously-struggling Melvin Gordon. I'd consider this an above-average matchup for Justin Forsett, whose two-game average is 18.5 touches for 68 total yards. The good news for Forsett's Week 3 PPR outlook is that the slow-footed Bengals linebackers have permitted an AFC-high 21 receptions to opposing running backs through two games. The bad news is the emergence of Lorenzo Taliaferro, who stole ten touches off the bench last week while dominating red-zone work and scoring from seven yards out on a draw play. For as long as Taliaferro is hogging usage inside scoring position, Forsett can only be viewed as a low-scoring RB2. Taliaferro is worth owning in 12- and 14-team leagues as a touch and touchdown vulture behind a journeyman starter who turns 30 next month.

Friday Update: After missing much of camp with a sprained MCL, Taliaferro missed Wednesday and Thursday's practices with a foot injury. He did return on Friday and is listed as questionable. Taliaferro's status remains is uncertain for Sunday's clash with Cincinnati. Buck Allen would figure to move back into the No. 2 RB role against the Bengals if Taliaferro can't play. With Taliaferro sidelined in Week 1, Allen handled ten touches but gained only 34 yards. Taliaferro's Week 3 absence would upgrade Forsett's fantasy outlook.

Flacco's target distribution through two games: Steve Smith Sr. 23; Forsett 11; Kamar Aiken and Crockett Gillmore 10; Marlon Brown 6; Kyle Juszczyk 5; Maxx Williams and Taliaferro 3. ... I was all over Smith Sr. as a DFS start last week. I'm off him in Week 3. In Weeks 1 and 2, the stingy Bengals secondary shut down enemy top receivers Amari Cooper (5-47-0) and Keenan Allen (2-16-0). In season-long leagues, however, Smith Sr. is still seeing enough volume to be approached as an every-week WR3 with WR2 upside. ... Aiken made a few clutch late-game catches in last week's loss to the Raiders, but is only playing 71% of the Ravens' snaps, and Cincinnati's secondary is quite a bit better than Oakland's. Aiken has 88 yards and a lost fumble through two weeks. ... The Bengals held Raiders tight ends to a combined 2-5-0 receiving line in Week 1 and Ladarius Green to 5-47-0 last Sunday. While this isn't an ideal matchup based on that small-sample data, Gillmore's 94% snap rate and heavy red-zone usage have vaulted him into the low-end TE1 discussion. Gillmore whipped Raiders MLB Curtis Lofton and SS Taylor Mays for touchdowns last week, and was targeted by Flacco in the end zone the week before. Until Breshad Perriman (PCL) returns, Smith Sr. and Gillmore should both see a lot of passes.

Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome did a respectable job of patching his secondary back together this offseason, but Baltimore's pass rush was always hanging by a thread. That thread broke when Terrell Suggs ruptured his Achilles' tendon in Week 1, leaving 31-year-old situational player Elvis Dumervil and early-down run plugger Courtney Upshaw as the Ravens' primary edge defenders, with fourth-round rookie Za'Darius Smith mixing in. Sacked just once among 47 dropbacks in Week 2, Derek Carr proceeded to carve up Baltimore for 351 yards and three touchdown passes en route to a top-five fantasy quarterback week. This is a better matchup than it may appear for Andy Dalton, who has played his way into low-end QB1 treatment with a red-hot start to the season. ... While coach Marvin Lewis promised Monday that Jeremy Hill "will be fine" and "get back at it" following his Week 2 fumble-induced benching, Week 3 sets up better for Giovani Bernard, who has earned an increased role by averaging 6.64 yards per carry and 113.5 total yards per game in the first two weeks. The strength of Ravens DC Dean Pees' unit is in run defense; Baltimore limited Broncos and Raiders running backs to 144 yards and one score on 41 carries (3.51 YPC) in Weeks 1-2. In Week 1 of last year, Bengals OC Hue Jackson attacked Baltimore with a shotgun-based, pass-first offense, utilizing Bernard in a Brian Westbrookian role. Bernard capitalized with 110 total yards on 20 touches. A low-end flex option to open the season, Bernard has quickly graduated to RB2 value in PPR leagues.

As Lewis stated, Hill should be "fine" eventually and remains the Bengals' best bet for weekly short-yardage TDs. Until Hill overcomes his ball-security woes and earns a larger share of the backfield pie, however, he'll be an RB2/flex rather than the borderline RB1 he was drafted as. Hill's rushing lines in last year's two Ravens games were 4-19-0 and 10-25-0. ... Dalton's Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Tyler Eifert 17; A.J. Green 12; Bernard 9; Marvin Jones 8; Mohamed Sanu 5; Rex Burkhead 3; Hill 1. ... Same as he has been this year, Eifert was a huge part of Jackson's game plan in the aforementioned Week 1 meeting with Baltimore, catching three balls for 37 yards on only eight snaps before suffering a year-ending elbow dislocation. Even against a Ravens defense that has so far allowed the fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends, Eifert is an elite TE1 play. Only Rob Gronkowski is outscoring Eifert among fantasy tight ends. ... Green went 6-131-1 in last year's Week 1 game. Even with top corner Jimmy Smith back healthy, the Ravens gave up receiving lines of 7-60 (Demaryius Thomas) and 7-109-1 (Amari Cooper) to No. 1 wideouts in Weeks 1-2. ... Jones passed Sanu on the depth chart last week, starting and playing 80% of Cincinnati's offensive snaps. Jones capitalized with a 45-yard TD grab, beating Chargers CB Brandon Flowers. Unfortunately, Jones saw only five targets and will continue to struggle for consistent usage behind Green, Eifert, and Cincy's running backs.

Score Prediction: Bengals 23, Ravens 20

Jacksonville @ New England

The 2-0 Patriots return to Foxboro as whopping 13.5-point favorites over the Jaguars. New England has a monster team total of 30.5, putting LeGarrette Blount into play as a potential high-volume clock bleeder. Blount played only seven snaps off the bench in last week's win over Buffalo, but he was never a good bet for a significant role in that matchup. I'll have some Blount shares in DFS tournaments this week. Including playoffs, Blount has 16 touchdowns over his last 19 games as a Patriot. ... Dion Lewis remained the Pats' feature back against the Bills, logging an 85% snap rate and parlaying 13 touches into 138 yards. Lewis did lose a fumble and has now fumbled in back-to-back games. Keep in mind Shane Vereen -- in a role similar to the one Lewis is now playing -- never finished as a top-25 fantasy back in five seasons with New England. Lewis has earned every-week RB2/flex treatment in PPR leagues for now, but slower games are on the horizon. ... Pulling a 180 from his painfully slow start to 2014, Tom Brady enters Week 3 leading all quarterbacks in TD passes (7), passing yards (754), and fantasy points. If the game script suggested by the Vegas line comes to fruition, we should see Brady spray the Jags with first-half points before Blount puts them away. Last week, inferior passer Ryan Tannehill went 30-of-44 (68.2%) for 359 yards (8.16 YPA) with two touchdowns and no turnovers against this same Jags defense.

Brady's Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Julian Edelman 31; Rob Gronkowski 21; Lewis 14; Aaron Dobson 9; Scott Chandler 6; Danny Amendola 5. ... Through two weeks, Edelman leads the NFL in targets and receptions (22), and ranks sixth in receiving yards (194). He's producing like a WR1. Jacksonville coughed up an 8-110 line to Dolphins slot man Jarvis Landry last Sunday. ... Per ex-Rotoworlder Adam Levitan, Gronkowski has 54 touchdowns over his last 57 games and has topped 70 yards in 12 of his last 16. After Gronk ripped the talent-loaded Bills defense for 7-113-1 in Week 2, there's no reason to believe any NFL team can stop him. ... Role players Dobson, Chandler, and Amendola continue to mix and match semi-productive weeks. Last Sunday, it was enigmatic Dobson stepping up for 87 yards on seven receptions, playing 81% of New England's snaps. As a 24-year-old wideout with plus size (6'3/210) and speed (4.37), Dobson is a player worth monitoring and owning in 14-team leagues. Until we see week-to-week evidence that Dobson's role has become consistent, however, he's just a bench stash vying for looks behind featured pieces Gronk and Edelman.

The Vegas line makers aren't buying into the Jaguars after last week's upset of Miami, setting Jacksonville's Week 3 team total at a minuscule 17 points. ... If the Jags are going to keep this one close, in all likelihood they'll need to lean heavily on their running game. The Jaguars indeed made a commitment to feeding T.J. Yeldon against the Dolphins, as he finished with 28 touches and played 85% of the snaps. With Denard Robinson (MCL) out indefinitely and Toby Gerhart (abdomen) banged up, Yeldon should rarely come off the field in Foxboro. New England's run defense has been leaky early on, serving up 244 yards and two touchdowns on 46 carries (5.30 YPC) to Steelers and Bills RBs. Yeldon should be viewed as a relatively high-floor, low-ceiling RB2 play at the Patriots. ... Coming off one of the better games of his career, Blake Bortles is a dart-throw two-QB-league starter with some upside against a vulnerable Pats pass defense. Through two games, New England has allowed Ben Roethlisberger and Tyrod Taylor to combine for 49-of-68 passing (72.1%), 593 yards (8.72 YPA) and four touchdowns. The Pats do lead the league in sacks (11) and interceptions (4), however. Producing big plays and huge favorites at home, New England's defense is a recommended start in both season-long leagues and DFS.

Bortles' Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Allen Robinson 18; Rashad Greene 17; Allen Hurns 11; Yeldon 8; Marqise Lee and Marcedes Lewis 4. ... In Weeks 1 and 2, the New England secondary served up stat lines of 9-133-1 (Antonio Brown) and 6-60-1 (Sammy Watkins) to enemy No. 1 wideouts. This bodes well for Robinson, who is coming off a 6-155-2 explosion against the Fins where he was featured on play-action shot plays and repeatedly outworked top Miami corner Brent Grimes for tough catches. Robinson should remain a volume monster with lots of garbage-time upside this week. ... Hurns has 60-plus yards in each of Jacksonville's first two games, and is a somewhat intriguing dart-throw WR3 in season-long leagues and low-cost DFS punt against the Pats. Hurns is playing 88% of the Jags' offensive snaps, has sneaky big-play ability, and could be heavily targeted in the second half of this potential blowout. ... Greene was placed on I.R./recall Tuesday and won't return until Week 11, opening up slot receiver duties for oft-injured Lee. I'd want to see Lee produce in a game before giving him fantasy consideration. Lee logged 31% of the Jags' Week 2 snaps, catching 2-of-4 targets for 27 yards.

Score Prediction: Patriots 34, Jaguars 23

New Orleans @ Carolina

Sunday's Saints-Panthers game has a 43-point Vegas total with host Carolina favored by 6.5. The Panthers' team total is solid at nearly 25 points. ... Cam Newton and Saints DC Rob Ryan have faced off five times since Cam entered the league in 2011. Ryan got the better of Newton in each of their first four meetings, before Cam shredded New Orleans last Week 14 on 21-of-33 passing for 226 yards, three touchdowns, no turnovers and a 12-83-1 rushing line. Being utilized as a runner more than ever this year, Newton offers week-winning upside against a banged-up and rotten Saints defense. In Weeks 1-2, Carson Palmer and Jameis Winston carved up New Orleans on 33-of-53 passing for 514 yards (9.70 YPA), four touchdowns, and no picks. Cam is a top-shelf QB1. ... The Saints played mediocre run defense in their first two games, permitting 222 yards and a touchdown on 51 carries (4.35 YPC) to Cardinals and Bucs RBs. While Jonathan Stewart's fantasy start to the season has been slow, his usage has been voluminous with 40 touches and a 71% snap rate through two games. With game flow expected to work to his benefit, Stewart is a solid RB2 versus New Orleans in season-long leagues, even if his TD ceiling is capped by Cam's goal-line presence. Stewart shredded the Saints in last year's two meetings, piling up 201 yards and a touchdown on 28 runs (7.18 YPC). Keep trotting J-Stew out there.

Newton's Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Greg Olsen 17; Ted Ginn 16; Corey Brown and Jerricho Cotchery 7; Devin Funchess 6; Stewart and Mike Tolbert 5. ... Olsen rallied back from his Week 1 clunker to post 6-70 on a team-high 14 targets in last Sunday's win over Houston. Expect more where that came from versus the Saints, whom Olsen flamed for 10-72-1 last December. Even amid a slow start, Olsen currently ranks second among all tight ends in targets. The Cam-Olsen stack remains squarely in play in DFS tournaments. ... The Panthers started Brown (77% snap rate) and Ginn (62%) against the Texans, with Funchess (49%) and Cotchery (14%) mixing in off the bench. Cotchery suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 2, which could lead to more playing time for Funchess moving forward. Even in a game where Newton projects to play well, I'm having trouble trusting any Panthers wideout as a DFS punt or dart-throw WR3. Olsen is the lone Carolina pass catcher to top 60 yards in a game through two weeks. If you really want to started a Panthers receiver in this prime matchup, Brown would be your best bet.

Ranked 21st in quarterback scoring and surrounded by the worst supporting cast of his career, Drew Brees will apparently try to play through a bruised rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder. Brees struggled mightily to locate throws after suffering the injury in last week's loss to Tampa Bay. Vegas line makers are way down on New Orleans, installing the Saints with a team total of just over 18 points. While Carolina has yet to face a competent passing attack -- the Saints can't be viewed as one, either, of course -- the Panthers have played stingy early-season pass defense, shutting down Blake Bortles and Ryan Mallett to the tune of 49-for-98 passing (50%), 427 yards (4.36 YPA), and a 2:3 TD-to-INT ratio. What Blake Bortles and Ryan Mallett did should not theoretically be reflective of what Brees will do, but it's also true that Bortles has outscored Brees in fantasy through two weeks, and Mallett is only one point behind. In his current state, I can't imagine viewing Brees as a top-12 or even top-20 play entering Week 3. ... With their quarterback hurt and his pass catchers flawed, it would make sense for the Saints to try to keep this game close into the fourth quarter by leaning heavily on their running game. That may be easier said than done. Even without MLB Luke Kuechly (concussion) and DT Star Lotulelei (foot), the Panthers held Jaguars and Texans RBs to 121 scoreless yards on 39 runs (3.10 YPC) in the first two weeks. Mark Ingram remains a quality RB2 in season-long leagues, but his DFS appeal is diminished considerably in a road game where New Orleans is a 6.5-point underdog.

Friday Update: Brees was unable to generate velocity on his throws in Friday's practice and has been ruled out for Week 3. Indications are Brees was never particularly close to playing, which would also bring his Week 4 status into doubt. Even for as poorly as Brees has played to this point, 34-year-old journeyman Luke McCown is a severe downgrade. McCown has made nine career starts, compiling a 9:14 TD-to-INT ratio with three additional turnovers on lost fumbles. His career completion rate is 58% with an anemic 6.4 YPA.

Whereas Ingram logged a 65% snap rate and 19 touches in last week's loss to the Bucs, Khiry Robinson (six touches) sprinkled in on 21% of the downs and C.J. Spiller (four touches) played 9%. Until the pecking order changes -- and I do expect Spiller to eventually emerge as a PPR asset -- Robinson and Spiller can't be trusted in fantasy lineups on minimal, rotational usage. ... Brees' Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Brandin Cooks 15; Brandon Coleman 13; Ingram and Marques Colston 12; Ben Watson and Willie Snead 9; Robinson 7; Josh Hill 4.. ... Commonly compared to Antonio Brown during the annual preseason hype fest, Cooks has looked more like a rich man's Tavon Austin through two games. On an efficiency basis, Cooks is getting outplayed by Willie Snead. Cooks figures to get the Josh Norman treatment in Carolina and, with an ailing quarterback, has already dipped from borderline WR1 expectations into the WR3/flex range. Cooks' poor career road splits and appearance on this week's injury report with an ankle ailment are two more negative datapoints working against him. ... Through two games, Cooks, Coleman, and Colston have combined for just 23 catches, 283 yards, and one touchdown on 40 targets. Their collective catch rate is an abysmal 57%. Especially with Snead earning more playing time -- he went 4-44-1 on six targets against the Buccaneers -- the Saints' receiver committee behind Cooks is a fantasy quagmire, and ultimately a situation to avoid.

Score Prediction: Panthers 24, Saints 17

Philadelphia @ NY Jets

Eagles-Jets has a 46-point Vegas total with New York as a two-point favorite. Coming off an embarrassing home-game loss to Dallas, the Eagles' team total is just 22 points. Philadelphia's atrocious guard play could be badly exposed by the Jets' ultra-talented defensive interior. ... Whereas there were lots of reasons to have Week 2 optimism on Sam Bradford, the opposite is true for Week 3. In their first two games, the Jets stymied enemy quarterbacks to the tune of 39-of-69 passing (56.5%) for 481 yards (6.97 YPA), a 2:4 TD-to-INT ratio, and four lost fumbles, including Andrew Luck's four-turnover Monday night. There is some reason to believe Bradford could be at risk of an in-game benching. ... The Philly rushing attack has been a disaster, and things aren't likely to improve versus the Jets. In Weeks 1-2, New York held Colts and Browns RBs to 115 scoreless yards on 40 carries (2.88 YPC). ... While the Eagles' run game outlook does seem bleak, Ryan Mathews would get a considerable bump were DeMarco Murray (hamstring) announced as inactive Sunday morning, potentially seeing around 20 touches against the Jets. Darren Sproles' fantasy appeal would also increase; Philadelphia's passing-game specialist and satellite-space back could be one means for Chip Kelly to work around the Jets' impenetrable front. I'll put an update on the Eagles' running back situation below this paragraph before Sunday. If Murray ends up giving it a go, he'll be a high-risk, low-ceiling fantasy RB2 play.

Friday Update: ESPN Eagles reporter Ashley Fox reported Friday morning that Murray will play against the Jets, and Murray's return to a "full" practice in the afternoon supports that notion. Murray is still listed as questionable, and his workload could be reduced in a poor matchup with an ailing leg. Don't be surprised if Sproles leads the Eagles' backfield in Week 3 usage.

Bradford's target distribution in the first two games: Jordan Matthews 22; Zach Ertz 15; Sproles 13; Murray 10; Nelson Agholor 8; Riley Cooper and Josh Huff 6; Mathews and Miles Austin 4. ... Unless Jets coach Todd Bowles makes a coverage adjustment, Matthews should be safe to use as a borderline WR1 in Week 3. Matthews (6'3/212) runs a heavy majority of his routes in the slot, where he'll see Buster Skrine (5'9/186) and should avoid boundary CBs Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. ... Eagles perimeter wideouts Agholor, Cooper, and Huff continued to rotate in last week's loss to Dallas. Agholor did start for the second straight game and played 76% of the Eagles' offensive downs, seeing six targets. Agholor should become a fantasy option in due time, but he isn't worth using against Revis and Cromartie. Neither Cooper nor Huff is roster worthy in 12- and 14-team fantasy leagues. ... Ertz's playing time is up from last year, but his performance has been poor coming back from in-camp groin surgery. Three of Ertz's 15 targets have been intercepted, while he's managed 63 scoreless yards on six catches. Through two games, the Jets have surrendered the fifth fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends.

With a team total of 24 points, the fantasy outlooks are a bit more favorable for a few select members of the Jets' offense. Brandon Marshall stands out as a premier WR1 play against an Eagles defense that's already been flamed by Julio Jones (9-141-2), dead-legged Roddy White (4-84), and Terrance Williams (4-84-1). A surefire target monster, Marshall's stock is further aided by injuries to Eric Decker (PCL) and Chris Owusu (knee scope). Marshall will be a staple in my cash-game DFS lineups this week. ... Ryan Fitzpatrick makes for an attractive QB1 streamer and possible daily fantasy punt. Matt Ryan and Tony Romo/Brandon Weeden made quick work of the Eagles' barely-there pass defense in Weeks 1-2, combining to complete 48-of-68 throws (70.6%) for 566 yards (8.32 YPA) and three touchdowns. Ryan threw two interceptions against Philadelphia in Week 1, though one came on a highlight-reel play by ILB Kiko Alonso, who may be done for the season with an ACL injury. In a Week 9 start against the Eagles last year, FitzMagic threw for 203 yards, two touchdowns, and one pick while adding 49 yards rushing.

Fitzpatrick's target distribution in Weeks 1-2: Marshall 19; Decker 14; Owusu and Bilal Powell 9; Quincy Enunwa and Chris Ivory 3. ... With Decker and Owusu out against the Eagles, look for Enunwa to start opposite Marshall while Jeremy Kerley and rookie Devin Smith mix into three- and four-wide packages. Enunwa possesses an intriguing size-speed combination (6'2/225, 4.45), but has dropped two of his three targets so far this season, catching the third for a gain of 27. ... With Ivory nursing groin and quadriceps injuries, the Jets' backfield has devolved into an even timeshare. Even in a game where New York was leading, Powell out-snapped Ivory 54% to 46% in last Monday's upset of Indianapolis, as both backs finished at 16 touches. The good news is a normally stout Philly front is missing several core players in Week 3. Alonso (knee) and edge-setting LE Cedric Thornton (hand) are out, while ILB Mychal Kendricks will attempt to play through a hamstring pull. The bad news is Ivory missed Wednesday and Thursday's practices, and at best can expect another 50:50 split. Powell should be owned in all PPR fantasy leagues. While an ordinary runner, Powell is much more passing-game oriented than his backfield mate and would be set up for a boatload of usage if Ivory ends up not playing against the Eagles, with Zac Stacy changing the pace. Powell's price is barely above the minimum on DFS sites.

Score Prediction: Jets 23, Eagles 20

Tampa Bay @ Houston

In a battle of NFL lightweights, Bucs-Texans checks in with the lowest Vegas total of Week 3 at 40.5 points. Houston is favored by 6.5, giving Bill O'Brien's club a team total of 23.5. ... While Ryan Mallett's to-date performance remains thoroughly unimpressive, I do think he makes for a cheap and intriguing DFS tournament stack with DeAndre Hopkins versus Tampa Bay. Mallett has hit or topped 30 pass attempts in each of his three starts under O'Brien, including 58 last week. Through two games, the Bucs rank 22nd in pass-defense DVOA with a 68.5% completion rate and 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio allowed. Mallett is in play as a QB1 streamer. ... Arian Foster will get one more week to rest his surgically repaired groin. The Texans continued to play musical chairs at tailback in last week's lost to Carolina, promoting Chris Polk into the lead back role and giving him 16 touches on 49% of the snaps. Unfortunately, Polk totaled just 47 yards, dropped two passes, and averaged 2.71 YPC. Demoted Alfred Blue logged six touches and a 25% snap rate. Passing-game specialist Jonathan Grimes caught six passes for 40 yards in a game where Mallett threw 58 times, but managed seven yards on two carries and played 18% of the downs. Grimes proceeded to miss Wednesday and Thursday's practices with a knee injury. Polk has emerged as the best fantasy option in the Texans' RBBC, but is only worth consideration if you're desperate. At least the matchup is right against a Bucs defense that surrendered 231 yards and two scores on 51 runs (4.53 YPC) to Titans and Saints RBs in the first two weeks.

Mallett's target distribution so far: Hopkins 17; Cecil Shorts 13; Grimes and Nate Washington 9; Polk 8; Garrett Graham 6; Keith Mumphery 4. ... Hopkins got the Josh Norman treatment in last week's loss to the Panthers, but still delivered a usable 5-53-0 receiving line on 11 targets. In less than six quarters, Hopkins has caught 11 of Mallett's throws for 112 yards with one score and a two-point conversion. Due to quarterback concerns and Hopkins' appearance on the injury report with a concussion, "Nuk" is a good bet to go underowned on DFS sites this week. Assuming he gets full clearance before game time, Hopkins will be an excellent tournament play. ... The Texans started Washington over Shorts last Sunday, but Shorts piled up 12 targets to Washington's 8, and Washington dropped his second and third passes of the young season. Shorts and Washington may flip flop semi-productive box-score games all year. If deciding between the two, I prefer 27-year-old Shorts over 32-year-old Washington. Albeit in a small sample size, Mallett seems to prefer Shorts, too. ... Graham caught a seven-yard touchdown pass from Mallett in last week's loss to Carolina. It's Graham's lone reception on the year.

The visiting Bucs have an anemic Week 3 team total of 17 points. J.J. Watt seems likely to ruin Tampa's offense on a number of snaps, while losing Austin Seferian-Jenkins (shoulder) is a big blow. ... Through two weeks, the Bucs rank dead last in PFF's cumulative run-blocking grades. The Texans have played stout run defense, holding Chiefs and Panthers RBs to 169 scoreless yards on 45 carries (3.76 YPC) in Weeks 1-2. Add negative game flow suggested by the Vegas line on Tampa-Houston, and Doug Martin isn't a DFS option this week. Martin's lead back role keeps him in play as a season-long RB2, albeit toward the lower end. ... After leading the Bucs' backfield in Week 1 snaps, passing-down specialist Charles Sims logged 41% of the offensive downs and 11 touches in last week's upset of New Orleans, in a game the Bucs were out in front almost the entire way. As he's seeing fairly consistent usage, Sims has some standalone value as a potential bye-week filler in PPR leagues. If his workloads and playing time keep up, Sims is going to be a big drain on Martin's value, especially in games where Tampa Bay trails. ... Jameis Winston played with an improved comfort level against the Saints as the Bucs piled up 35 team rushing attempts compared to 21 passes. Winston was still sacked three times and lost a fumble, however, and remains a quarterback to stream defenses against. Big favorites at home against a turnover-prone rookie, be sure to fire up Watt's Texans D/ST. Houston's defense may go a bit low owned in DFS this week as players chase the Seahawks against the Bears.

Winston's target distribution in Weeks 1-2: Vincent Jackson 16; Seferian-Jenkins 10; Sims 8; Louis Murphy 7; Martin and Mike Evans 3. ... Evans goose egged in his Week 2 return from a hamstring injury, although the fact that Winston needed only 14 completions for the Bucs to beat the Saints played a role. Evans logged 62% of Tampa Bay's offensive snaps and should be around 90% this week. Sure to be leaned on more in the absence of ASJ, Evans is a high-upside WR2 play at Houston, which coughed up touchdown passes to Ted Ginn and Corey Brown last week. It should still be noted that the Texans have not yet allowed an opposing wideout to hit 60 receiving yards. ... The Seferian-Jenkins injury figures to narrow the target distribution in Tampa's pass-catcher corps, with Jackson joining Evans at the forefront. Jackson opened the season with stat lines of 4-51-0 and 3-54-1. While his big-play ability seems to be vanishing at age 32, Jackson should at least return fantasy WR3 value until Seferian-Jenkins comes back. ... Murphy led the Bucs in Week 2 receiving (3-82), but only played 53% of the snaps and is the team's clear No. 3 behind Evans and Jackson. ... It's a shame Seferian-Jenkins is out; the Texans surrendered 6-106-2 to Travis Kelce in Week 1, and 6-70 to Greg Olsen last week. With ASJ out 4-6 weeks, the Bucs will turn to a tight end rotation of Luke Stocker and Brandon Myers.

Score Prediction: Texans 23, Buccaneers 20

San Diego @ Minnesota

Returning from a much-needed bounce-back win over Detroit, host Minnesota is a 2.5-point favorite over San Diego in a Week 3 game with a middling 44.5-point Vegas total. ... The best fantasy play on the Vikings' side remains Adrian Peterson, to whom OC Norv Turner made a devout commitment to feeding the rock against the Lions after unsuccessfully attacking the 49ers with a pass-first game plan in Week 1. Fed heavily on inside-zone runs, Peterson totaled 192 yards on 31 touches and averaged 4.62 yards per carry. Peterson would've had an even bigger fantasy day if not for a pair of red-zone fumbles -- one of which he lost -- and a one-yard Teddy Bridgewater rushing TD that Peterson's presence created when the Lions' defense bit badly on Teddy's boot-action fake. In the third quarter, FB/RB Zach Line vultured an additional one-yard score. Look for Peterson to finally find pay dirt against a Chargers defense having major issues versus the run. San Diego ceded 232 yards and a touchdown on 45 carries (5.16 YPC) to Lions and Bengals RBs in Weeks 1-2. ... After looking overwhelmed in San Francisco two Monday nights ago, Bridgewater played far more poised football operating as a game manager against Detroit, while A.P. took over as Minnesota's offensive centerpiece. Turner orchestrated a low-volume, quick-timing passing game in Week 2, also designing some plays that capitalized on Bridgewater's movement ability. While this is good news for the Vikings as a team, Bridgewater will struggle for consistent QB1 production as a caretaker rather than an aggressor.

Bridgewater's target distribution to open the season: Kyle Rudolph 14; Mike Wallace 10; Charles Johnson and Jarius Wright 6; Peterson 5; Jerick McKinnon 2. ... The Vikings' current leader in targets and catches (10), Rudolph's Week 3 sets up nicely against a Chargers defense that coughed up 4-53-1 to Eric Ebron in Week 1 and 4-49-1 to Tyler Eifert last Sunday. Rudolph has five catches in each of Minnesota's first two games and is a quality if low-end TE1 versus San Diego. ... Johnson is playing 95% of the Vikings' offensive snaps, but has 37 yards to show for it in two games. Until Johnson picks it up -- and I'm still betting he will -- he needs to be on fantasy benches as a WR4/5. ... Wallace also hasn't seen much early-season volume, posting scoreless stat lines of 6-63 and 3-38 against San Francisco and Detroit. Big plays are in Wallace's future, but he's a fringe WR3 until they start hitting. It doesn't help that Minnesota's wideouts have difficult Week 3 matchups against stingy Chargers CBs Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett.

Philip Rivers gets a tough Week 3 draw in a game where Vegas has San Diego pegged with a team total of just 21 points. In Weeks 1-2, the Vikings limited Matthew Stafford and Colin Kaepernick to a combined 49-of-79 passing (62%) for 451 yards (5.71 YPA), two touchdowns, and an interception. Rivers is a better passer than Stafford and Kaepernick, and warrants every-week QB1 treatment. I just think he's at the low end of that spectrum this week. Another reason I'm not bullish on Rivers is that I don't like how San Diego's receivers match up to the Vikings' secondary. ... Minnesota's defense is more vulnerable on the ground than in the air. Per Football Outsiders, the Vikings currently rank 16th in pass-defense DVOA but 29th in run defense. Detroit's early-game abandonment of the run helped the Vikings' counting stats last week, but on a combined basis 49ers and Lions RBs have 205 yards and two touchdowns on 43 carries (4.77 YPC) against Mike Zimmer's defense. Minnesota ranked 25th against the run last year. This is an underrated spot for Melvin Gordon, who hasn't quite earned DFS consideration but should be locked into season-long lineups as an RB2. Gordon flashed his big-play ability in last week's loss to Cincinnati, peeling off three runs of 20-plus yards and upping his YPC average on the season to 4.63. ... Danny Woodhead has opened the year leading San Diego's running backs in playing time and averaging 14.5 touches for 83 total yards per game. Until Gordon takes clear control of the backfield -- which may or may not happen -- Woodhead is an RB2 in PPR and a respectable flex option in standard leagues, regardless of weekly opponents.

Rivers' target distribution in Weeks 1-2: Keenan Allen 21; Woodhead 13; Stevie Johnson and Ladarius Green 12; Malcom Floyd 6; Gordon 4. ... Letting down badly after his big opener, Allen managed 16 yards on four targets with a drop and lost fumble on a punt return in last Sunday's loss to Cincinnati. Largely shut down by Bengals RCB Pacman Jones in Week 2, Allen has another imposing matchup with Vikings RCB Xavier Rhodes. ... Look for savvy veteran Floyd to do battle with fellow savvy veteran LCB Terence Newman on the majority of Sunday's snaps. Newman has been rock solid in the early going, holding off first-round pick Trae Waynes and permitting just 37 yards on nine targets in Weeks 1-2, per PFF's charts. Floyd caught a 40-yard touchdown pass on a blown coverage last week, but has averaged just three targets in San Diego's first two games. ... This could be another Stevie Week. Johnson has hit pay dirt in back-to-back games and runs similar routes to Golden Tate, who had 75 yards on five catches in the first half of last week's game against the Vikings. Playing 92% of the Chargers' snaps, Johnson has earned every-week WR3/flex treatment, at least until Antonio Gates returns. Johnson is currently the overall WR14 in PPR leagues. ... Minnesota has shown vulnerability to tight ends, yielding a combined 7-92 line to 49ers TEs in Week 1, and 5-43-1 to Eric Ebron last week. With San Diego's perimeter receivers unlikely to do much damage on Rhodes and Newman, Green is a sneaky bet for a big Week 3. Green has five catches in each of the first two games and is playing 87% of San Diego's snaps. All of this obviously assumes Green gets medically cleared from his latest concussion.

Score Prediction: Vikings 23, Chargers 20

Pittsburgh @ St. Louis

Perhaps a sneaky shootout inside the Edward Jones Dome, Steelers-Rams has a 48-point Vegas total, tied for second highest of Week 3. As the game is a "Pick 'Em," he Steelers' team total is 24. ... The return of Le'Veon Bell will inject all-purpose playmaking ability into a Steelers offense that already had an arrow pointing up after gashing the 49ers' leaky backend on deep balls in last Sunday's 43-18 rout. Bell returns for a plus matchup, taking on a Rams defense that can rush the passer but through two weeks has allowed 273 yards and two TDs on 60 runs (4.55 YPC) to Redskins and Seahawks RBs, including Matt Jones' 19-123-2 power-running demolition last week. Bell is a top-four running back play in Week 3, along with Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, and Jamaal Charles. ... DeAngelo Williams is now a handcuff only. He should see no more than 4-8 touches a game. ... Ben Roethlisberger has a more trying draw against the Rams, who've held Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins to a combined 55-of-68 passing for 454 yards (6.68 YPA), two touchdowns, and one interception while amassing an NFC-high eight sacks. Still, Ben has topped 350 yards in each of his first two games and is the QB3 overall entering Week 3. While Bell will add efficiency to Pittsburgh's rushing attack, his receiving prowess can help Big Ben's fantasy outlook. Roethlisberger is a locked-in QB1, albeit not an ideal DFS start this week.

Ben's target distribution in Weeks 1-2: Antonio Brown 22; Heath Miller 13; Darrius Heyward-Bey 12; Markus Wheaton 11; Williams 6. ... Brown is a matchup-proof production fiend who leads all wideouts in fantasy scoring through two weeks. Including playoffs, Brown has seven or more catches in 14 straight games and 17 of his last 18. ... Although the Rams notoriously play shutdown tight end coverage, that hasn't been the case so far this season. Frequently leaving SS T.J. McDonald isolated on opposing tight ends, St. Louis yielded 6-51-1 to Jimmy Graham in Week 1 and 6-82 to Jordan Reed last Sunday. The overall TE10 in fantasy entering Week 3, Heath Miller is a respectable if low-ceiling starter. ... Wheaton remains unable to capitalize on Martavis Bryant's (suspension) absence, managing receiving lines of 3-55-0 and 2-67-0 in the first two games. With Bryant set to return in Week 5, Wheaton is safe to drop in 12-team leagues. ... Taking on a larger role with Wheaton scuffling, Heyward-Bey popped a few big plays in last week's domination of San Francisco. While Heyward-Bey deserves credit for helping his team get the win, Pittsburgh's No. 3 receiver isn't worth serious fantasy discussion.

Famed late-round quarterback strategist JJ Zachariason is on Nick Foles as a QB1 streamer and sneaky DFS play this week, and I'm jumping on board. As JJ noted, the Steelers' barely-there pass defense has surrendered a top-ten fantasy quarterback performance in 10 of the last 11 fantasy-relevant weeks. In Weeks 1 and 2, Pittsburgh was shelled by Colin Kaepernick and Tom Brady for a combined 58-of-78 passing (74.4%), 623 yards (7.99 YPA), six touchdowns, and no interceptions. I'm a bit skeptical of Foles' floor due to his weak supporting cast and utter lack of mobility, but the matchup gives him lots of ceiling, especially if this game shoots out. ... Another plus on Foles is Pittsburgh's underrated run defense, which may force OC Frank Cignetti into dialing up more pass attempts than St. Louis would like. With second-year ILB Ryan Shazier living in opposing backfields, the Steelers limited 49ers and Patriots tailbacks to 130 scoreless yards on 44 carries (2.95 YPC) in the first two weeks. The Rams' RB corps is the ultimate fantasy quagmire with Todd Gurley set to make his NFL debut. Gurley will share time with Tre Mason, and they'll both lose passing-game production to Benny Cunningham. Gurley should eventually emerge as St. Louis' lead back, but he won't be start-able in fantasy for at least another week.

Friday Update: Shazier was ruled out with a shoulder injury on Friday. His absence upgrades the fantasy matchup for St. Louis running backs, but I still don't pretend to have a good feel for the individual workloads. My guess is none of the Rams' backs finish above 12 or so touches against the Steelers. Gurley and Mason are hail-mary flex options in Week 3.

Foles' target distribution in Weeks 1-2: Cunningham and Jared Cook 13; Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin 8; Kenny Britt 7; Mason 5; Lance Kendricks 4. ... Just as Foles is an enticing Week 3 quarterback streamer, Cook is an attractive dart-throw TE1 at Pittsburgh. The Steelers were rinsed for 6-95-4 by Patriots tight ends in Week 1, and last week routinely left Vernon Davis uncovered as 49ers tight ends combined for an 8-83 stat line. Through two weeks, Pittsburgh has allowed the most fantasy points in the league to opposing quarterbacks, and only Oakland has yielded more fantasy points to tight ends. In DFS, a Foles-Cook stack could be good for your wallet. ... Britt, Austin, and Bailey continue to rotate snaps, and it wouldn't be surprising if Brian Quick made his 2015 debut against the Steelers. Even in an extremely-favorable matchup, you're entirely on your own trying to peg which Rams wideout will have a big Week 3.

Score Prediction: Steelers 27, Rams 24

4:05PM ET Game

San Francisco @ Arizona

Fresh off their fluke Week 1 drubbing of Minnesota, the Faux9ers went all Dennis Green in last week's blowout loss to Pittsburgh. Not tested at all in the opener, San Francisco's secondary hemorrhaged four passing plays of 40-plus yards to Ben Roethlisberger after allowing just eight 40-plus-yard pass plays all of 2014. Here's guessing Ben had a chat with ole pal Bruce Arians this week. All the John Brown in DFS? ... Behind only Tom Brady, Carson Palmer is the No. 2 fantasy quarterback through two games, engineering an aggressive intermediate and vertical passing offense that is currently tied for the NFL lead in touchdown passes (7) and ranks third in passer rating (124.4). Roethlisberger carved through the 49ers like a hot knife through butter in Week 2, going 21-of-27 for 369 yards and three touchdowns. Palmer is an elite QB1 play in a Week 3 game where Arizona has a rock-solid team total of over 25 points. ... With Andre Ellington (PCL) on the shelf last Sunday, Chris Johnson logged 58% of the Cardinals' snaps and 20 touches, but failed to reel in his lone passing-game target and averaged 3.60 yards per carry. Exciting rookie David Johnson parlayed six touches into 45 yards and a touchdown and returned a kickoff 108 yards for an additional score, but only played 27% of Arizona's offensive downs. Arians has promised David's role will increase this week, but his usage is still a significant concern. Chris and David are both dicey flex options against the Navorro Bowman-led 49ers, who held Vikings and Steelers RBs to 143 yards on 35 carries (4.09 YPC) in the first two games of the season. San Francisco did serve up three short-yardage touchdowns to DeAngelo Williams last week.

Palmer's target distribution in Weeks 1-2: Larry Fitzgerald 17; John Brown 12; Darren Fells 5; J.J. Nelson, Jaron Brown, and David Johnson 4; Chris Johnson, Jermaine Gresham, and Michael Floyd 2. ... Over his last eight games with a healthy Palmer, Fitzgerald has 46 catches for 682 yards and five touchdowns, good for a 92-1,364-10 pace. Fitz has 70-plus yards in six of those last seven games. Perhaps he'll slow down over the course of his age-32 season, but for now Fitzgerald is an every-week WR2 with a plus Week 3 matchup. ... Brown's stats in Palmer's last eight games are 29-406-4, good for a 58-912-8 pace. Early on this season, Brown's box-score stats have been hindered by a bevy of red-zone pass-interference flags. Still, if the Cardinals are going to do what the Steelers did to the 49ers last week, Brown is the likeliest beneficiary as Arizona's top vertical playmaker. Fitzgerald offers the higher weekly floor. ... Still rounding into form following his training camp hand injury, Floyd's snap rate jumped from 14% in Week 1 to 68% in Week 2, but he still only saw one target. Floyd is just a WR4/5 stash in 12- and 14-team leagues, but he should become usable during the upcoming bye-week crunches.

As 6.5-point road underdogs, the 49ers' Week 3 team total is under 19 points. ... Back from last week's series of injury scares (thigh/leg/concussion), Carlos Hyde is the top fantasy play on San Francisco's side. He is seeing every-down back usage in the absence of Reggie Bush (calf) and was a workload monster before missing almost the entire second half of last Sunday's blowout loss to Pittsburgh. Hyde has better hands than given credit for, and through two games the Cardinals have allowed a whopping 19 receptions to running backs, third most in the league. Arizona's defense has remained stout on the ground, holding Bears and Saints RBs to 133 yards and one touchdown on 40 carries (3.33 YPC) in Weeks 1-2. Regardless, Hyde warrants every-week RB1 treatment. ... Colin Kaepernick racked up stats in garbage time last week against the Steelers, but seems to be carrying himself with more confidence this year and has improved weapons. He had more success against the Cardinals than any team in 2014, completing 69.8% of his throws for 449 yards, a 3:0 TD-to-INT ratio, and 19-117 on the ground in these clubs' two meetings. I'm not anointing Kaepernick a fantasy QB1 yet, but I think he can get there in large part because the 49ers are aggressively calling running plays for him. Kaepernick has rushed 16 times for 92 yards through two games. At very least, he's a locked-in two-QB-league starter.

Kaepernick's Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Anquan Boldin 15; Vernon Davis 13; Torrey Smith 10; Hyde and Garrett Celek 6; Quinton Patton 5; Mike Davis 4. ... Boldin gets a tough Week 3 draw versus Patrick Peterson, who is off to a hot start. Peterson held Brandin Cooks to 4-49-0 in Week 1 and Marquess Wilson to 1-10-0 on five targets last week, in the absence of Alshon Jeffery. Peterson is running wide receivers' routes for them. Boldin is a mid-range to low-end WR3 play this week. ... The Cardinals have played stingier tight end defense than usual this year, at least in the early going. They've allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points to the position, and, combined with Jay Cutler's hamstring injury, rendered Martellus Bennett a Week 2 fantasy dud (4-48-0). Davis looks improved in games this season, but he's just another member of the wide-ranging low-end TE1/high-end TE2 fantasy field. ... After a 1-11 opener, Torrey parlayed Week 2 garbage time against the Steelers into a 6-120-1 number keyed by a fourth-quarter 75-yard touchdown bomb. Get used to maddening highs and lows with Smith, a low-volume vertical streaker with very little chance of achieving consistency on the run-first Niners.

Score Prediction: Cardinals 24, 49ers 17

4:25PM ET Games

Buffalo @ Miami

Bills-Dolphins has a modest 43-point Vegas total with host Miami favored by three, giving the Fins a team total of 23 points. ... Ryan Tannehill has faced Rex Ryan's defense six times in his career, and has struggled every single time. Keep in mind Rex's Bills defense has more talent than the units he fielded in New York. Tannehill has gone 114-of-198 passing (57.6%) for 1,243 yards (6.28 YPA) and a 4:6 TD-to-INT ratio. In last year's two meetings with Rex -- with his Jets defense embarrassingly shorthanded in the secondary -- Tannehill managed one touchdown pass and one interception in two games, absorbing nine sacks. Miami's current offensive line is in shambles with LT Branden Albert (hamstring) and C Mike Pouncey (elbow) nursing injuries, and guards Dallas Thomas and Jamil Douglas getting destroyed in pass protection. I'm totally off Tannehill this week and would be willing to start a streamer like Nick Foles or Marcus Mariota over him. ... The Dolphins have shown little commitment to their running game early this year, something OC Bill Lazor also went through early last season. While I expect the rushing attack to eventually get on track, Lamar Miller is in a rough spot with so many O-Line problems facing a front as talented as Buffalo's. Also battling an ankle injury, Miller is best approached as a low-end RB2/high-end flex this week. I'm starting him in one Dynasty league, and holding my breath.

Tannehill's target distribution so far: Jarvis Landry 22; Rishard Matthews 13; Jordan Cameron 11; Greg Jennings 8; Miller and Kenny Stills 7; Williams 5; Jake Stoneburner 2; DeVante Parker 1. ... From a fantasy standpoint, the only reliable member of Miami's wideout corps is Landry, who has a plus Week 3 draw against a Bills defense Julian Edelman (11-97-2) shredded last Sunday. Landry and Edelman run routes in similar areas on the field. ... Whereas Landry is a 91% player in the Dolphins' offense, all of the boundary receivers are rotating and fighting for scraps. Matthews (6-115) played 78% of the Week 2 downs, Jennings (0-0) played 56%, Stills (2-8) 51%, and Parker (1-3) logged 25%. Matthews scored a touchdown in Week 1 and topped 100 yards last week, and is currently Miami's only perimeter wideout worth a look as a fantasy play. Matthews is still only a low-end WR3 option who eventually figures to fall down the totem pole while first-round pick Parker rises. ... Cameron suffered a groin injury in last week's loss to Jacksonville and wound up missing over half the game. While Cameron has shined when given opportunities so far with the Dolphins, he has a history of losing a lot of effectiveness when trying to play at less than 100%. Cameron is expected to start against the Bills, but my confidence in him wanes whenever he's on the injury report. A mid-range TE1 at full health, Cameron is better approached as a low-end starter in Week 3.

The high-priced Dolphins defense has been one of the biggest disappointments of the NFL season thus far. Miami recorded zero sacks of Blake Bortles in last week's loss to Jacksonville, snapping an eight-game streak of Bortles taking at least four sacks. The Dolphins' run defense has at least been respectable, holding Redskins and Jaguars RBs to 244 yards on 64 carries (3.81 YPC) in Weeks 1-2. The good news on LeSean McCoy is he finally appears to be past his training camp hamstring problems, flashing dynamic running ability (5.93 YPC) in last week's loss to the Patriots. Shady has also been involved in the passing game, catching three balls in each of the Bills' first two games. The bad news is rookie Karlos Williams has carved out an every-week role that may include goal-line work after Williams vultured McCoy from six yards out in the first quarter of Week 2. In a difficult Week 3 matchup with lowered odds of hitting pay dirt, McCoy is more of an RB2 than RB1 at Miami. ... Through two games, Williams has a 27% snap rate and has parlayed 14 touches into 92 yards with two touchdowns. While not quite a flex option yet, Williams could push for borderline RB1 value if McCoy has a setback with his hamstring or toe.

As three-point road dogs at Miami, the Bills' team total is just 20 points. ... Buoyed by high-volume catch-up mode as Buffalo played from behind against on-fire Tom Brady, Tyrod Taylor painted last week's box score with 285 total yards and four touchdowns, three in the air and one on the ground. While the performance paid dividends for fantasy owners with the cajones to start Taylor against Bill Belichick's defense, those are precisely the kind of games the Ground N Pound Bills want their quarterback to avoid. Amid the fantasy glory, Taylor took eight sacks, committed three turnovers, poorly processed reads, and fumbled twice in a home-game loss. Expect Taylor to resume game-manager usage against the Fins. ... Taylor's target distribution in Weeks 1-2: Sammy Watkins 11; Charles Clay and Percy Harvin 10; McCoy 7; Robert Woods 5; Williams 3. ... After goose egging in the opener, Watkins got loose for 6-60-1 against New England's vulnerable secondary last week, beating Patriots RCB Bradley Fletcher for his 24-yard touchdown on a go route. Watkins can expect to see a lot of Dolphins top corner Brent Grimes on Sunday. Still a low-volume boom-or-bust WR3, Watkins will be difficult to trust all year. ... Although Harvin, Clay, and Woods play key roles within the context of the Bills' offense, none of them has a realistic chance to carve out sustainable fantasy value. It is perhaps worth noting that Harvin has passed Woods on the depth chart, starting each of Buffalo's first two games.

Score Prediction: Bills 21, Dolphins 20

Chicago @ Seattle

Facing the Jimmy Clausen-quarterbacked Bears, the Seahawks are gargantuan 14.5-point favorites in their home opener. This game involves arguably the biggest on-field mismatch of Week 3. If you faded Marshawn Lynch in DFS last week like I did, you should be all over him this week. I think I'll have almost 100% exposure. Since 2012, Lynch has 37 touchdowns across 32 home games versus 19 TDs in 31 road affairs. The road-away splits were as stark as ever last year, as Lynch hit pay dirt 12 times with a 112-total-yard average in eight home games. He managed five TDs and 97 yards a game on the road. With the home crowd likely to be energized by the return of SS Kam Chancellor, Lynch is set up for a heavy load against a Bears defense that surrendered a combined 21-87-1 rushing line to Packers running backs in Week 1, and 26-117-1 to Cardinals RBs last Sunday. ... With much of the public likely to be on Lynch this week, an intriguing contrarian fade in DFS tournaments would be a Russell Wilson-Jimmy Graham stack. The Bears are the NFC's only team that's sack-less through two weeks. In Weeks 1-2, Chicago's swiss-cheese pass defense was eaten alive by Carson Palmer and Aaron Rodgers for a combined 35-of-47 passing (74.5%), 374 yards (7.96 YPA), and a 7:1 TD-to-INT ratio. It's conceivable the Seahawks will look to "get Graham going" amid whispers of frustration with his role.

Friday Update: Nursing a calf injury he apparently suffered in last week's loss to Green Bay, Lynch missed Friday's practice and is listed as questionable. Coach Pete Carroll stated after the session that Lynch will be a game-time decision against the Bears. The transcript of Carroll's post-practice press conference did suggest Lynch was held out primarily for rest purposes, but calf injuries can be nagging and linger, and the Seahawks should probably know they can beat the Bears without their bellcow back. (They're also 0-2, of course.) If Lynch winds up not playing, Seattle beat writers expect Fred Jackson and Thomas Rawls to evenly split the workload versus Chicago. F-Jax would be the slightly better fantasy bet of the two, and more so in PPR leagues.

Wilson's target distribution so far this year: Doug Baldwin 17; Lynch 13; Jermaine Kearse 12; Graham 10; Tyler Lockett 6; Luke Willson 5; Chris Matthews and Fred Jackson 3. ... With Wilson's pass attempts up -- he's hit 30-plus in each of Seattle's first two games after doing so in just 7-of-16 games last season -- Baldwin has moved squarely onto the every-week WR3 radar. Baldwin has 14 catches through two weeks and a cakewalk Week 3 matchup. ... Lockett's snap rate dipped from 70% in Week 1 to 53% in last week's loss to Green Bay as the Seahawks dialed up more two-tight end packages. Lockett is an exciting, at-times electrifying player, but he's a rotational receiver on what's still a theoretically run-first team. Lockett is best viewed as an asset in return-yardage leagues and a boon to the fantasy prospects of Seattle's D/ST.

The Bears will be without Jay Cutler (hamstring) for "at least" two weeks, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Vegas consequently assigned Chicago a putrid team total of 14.5 points at Seattle, easily a league low for Week 3. ... The Bears' offensive skill-position player likeliest to survive with a semi-productive game is Matt Forte, who can rack up checkdown catches when Chicago falls behind. Forte is game-flow proof in that respect, and has nine receptions through two games with the Bears having lost Weeks 1 and 2 by a combined 33 points. A big rushing day remains unlikely against a Seahawks front that limited Rams and Packers RBs to 152 scoreless yards on 41 carries (3.71 YPC) in the first two weeks. It should still be noted that James Starks averaged 4.75 YPC on 20 totes off the bench against Seattle last Sunday night. ... Clausen has done well to salvage his career as a backup in Chicago after the game looked too big for him early in Clausen's career with the Panthers. Still, this is a prime spot to tee up the Seahawks' fantasy D/ST, particlarly as a DFS corrolation play along with Lynch. Especially with Chancellor returning, Seattle checks every box as a monster home favorite facing a backup quarterback, and with explosive rookie Lockett very capable of taking a punt or kickoff to the house.

Clausen's target distribution coming off the bench in Week 2: Eddie Royal 6; Marquess Wilson 5; Martellus Bennett and Cameron Meredith 4; Forte 3; Josh Bellamy 1. ... It's perhaps notable that Wilson went 7-66 in Clausen's Week 16 spot start against the Lions last year, finishing second on the Bears in receiving behind Alshon Jeffery. Unfortunately, Wilson may spend much of Sunday's game in Richard Sherman's coverage. ... Bennett owners may simply not have better tight end options, but it worries me that Martellus caught one pass for zero yards in Clausen's 2014 start. Going from Cutler to Clausen, Bennett drops from a mid-range TE1 with high-end upside to a borderline fantasy starter. ... Behind Forte, Royal currently looks like the safest bet for high-percentage targets in the Clausen-quarterbacked offense, though Sherman's move into the slot in sub-packages this season is an obstacle for slot man Royal. Ultimately, Bears pass catchers are best avoided in a bad matchup with a big quarterback downgrade.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 30, Bears 13

Sunday Night Football

Denver @ Detroit

As both offenses are off to slow starts, Broncos-Lions has a pedestrian 44.5-point Vegas total with visiting Denver favored by three. Detroit's team total is under 21 points. ... If you've seen Matthew Stafford's games this season, you might wonder whether he's playing hurt. Although Stafford has officially taken only two sacks, he's been lit up in the pocket with the Lions ranking 29th in PFF's combined pass-block grades. Stafford emerged from Week 1 with a vague "arm" injury, struggled with his accuracy in Week 2, and required X-rays on his ribs and chest after the Lions' latest loss. Stafford is a tough hombre and will be out there on Sunday, but he's a poor QB1 investment versus a red-hot Broncos defense that currently ranks No. 2 in yards allowed, No. 8 in points allowed, No. 4 in sacks, and No. 1 in passer rating against. In Weeks 1-2, Denver shut down Joe Flacco and Alex Smith to the tune of 34-of-57 passing (59.6%), 308 yards (5.40 YPA), and a 0:4 TD-to-INT ratio. The Broncos are the NFL's only team yet to allow a touchdown pass. ... Lions OC Joe Lombardi was frighteningly quick to abandon his running game in last week's loss to a Minnesota team that was six days removed from getting eviscerated by Carlos Hyde. Arguably even more frustrating has been Lombardi's insistence on involving plodder Joique Bell and scatback Theo Riddick at lead back Ameer Abdullah's expense. Bell has fallen toward the back of the pack, but is still siphoning snaps and inefficient touches, while Riddick played more downs than Abdullah in Week 2. Even against a Denver run defense Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis exposed (24-134-2) last week, Abdullah just is a boom-or-bust flex play.

Stafford's target distribution in Weeks 1-2: Calvin Johnson 21; Golden Tate 18; Eric Ebron 15; Lance Moore and Riddick 8; Abdullah 5; Bell 4. ... Another reason I'm avoiding Stafford in Week 3 is I don't like how his pass-catcher corps matches up to Denver's secondary. DC Wade Phillips should feel very comfortable sticking Aqib Talib on Megatron and Chris Harris on Tate, while allowing SS T.J. Ward to rough up Ebron. ... If you want reasons for optimism on Megatron, know that Talib missed practice time with the flu this week. It's possible he'll be short of 100% against the Lions. Per PFF, Talib has permitted just three catches for 32 yards on nine targets so far this season, intercepting two including a pick-six. The Broncos held Ravens No. 1 receiver Steve Smith Sr. to 2-13-0 in Week 1 and Chiefs No. 1 Jeremy Maclin to 4-57-0 last week. ... A legitimate shutdown corner in his own right, Harris is playing RCB in Denver's base defense while guarding the slot in sub-packages, and should stick to Tate for most of this game. Tate ranks a lowly 44th in PPR points among receivers through two games. He's a mere WR3 option Sunday night. ... The Broncos have been slightly more susceptible to tight ends, allowing a combined 3-38 line to Ravens TEs in Week 1, and 6-112 to Chiefs TEs in Week 2. Although Ebron's route-running limitations remain a concern -- he's almost strictly catching passes in the flats -- he has flashed signs of year-two improvement, parlaying 15 targets into nine catches for 96 yards and two TDs. With Brandon Pettigrew (hamstring) out last week, Ebron played a career-high 90% of the snaps. Ebron is getting TE1 usage and he's producing like one, too.

The Vegas line makers are slightly more optimistic about the Broncos in Week 3, setting Denver's team total at slightly under 24. ... The Lions' run defense has taken a sizable step back minus DTs Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh, especially with WLB DeAndre Levy (hip) still out indefinitely. Detroit coughed up a 28-97-2 rushing line to Chargers running backs in Week 1, and 35-149-1 to Vikings RBs in Week 2. This is an opportunity for C.J. Anderson to get on track. Although he's losing work to Ronnie Hillman, Anderson remained the Broncos' lead runner against Kansas City last week, handling 58% of Denver's snaps to Hillman's 42% and 13 touches to Hillman's nine. The Broncos want Anderson to claim their bellcow job; he needs to start playing better to secure it. Anderson is an RB2/flex with upside at Detroit. ... Given more opportunities by coach Gary Kubiak to attack the Chiefs in a shotgun, speed-tempo offense two Thursday nights ago, Peyton Manning finally got the Broncos' passing game moving in the comeback win. It's clear that Kubiak's preferred under-center offense doesn't suit Peyton at this stage of his career. If Kubiak cooperates, Manning should have passing success on Sunday night. Philip Rivers and Teddy Bridgewater both moved their respective quick-passing-based offenses with relative ease on Detroit in Weeks 1-2, combining to complete 48-of-59 throws (81.4%) for 558 yards (9.46 YPA), three touchdowns, and two interceptions. Manning's pass protection has been problematic in the early going, but the Lions have only three sacks through two games.

Peyton's Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Emmanuel Sanders 26; Demaryius Thomas 25; Jordan Norwood 10; Anderson 9; Owen Daniels 7; Virgil Green 4; Andre Caldwell 3; Hillman 1. ... Even with his quarterback scuffling, Sanders has remained an early-season volume beast with Weeks 1 and 2 target totals of 12 and 14. Before the season, Sanders stated publicly his "goal" was a mere 1,000 yards in Kubiak's run-based offense. He's currently on pace for 1,216. ... Demaryius has started a bit slower, but did have a seven-catch opener and 8-116 in Week 2. As Thomas runs most of his routes at right corners, he has the top Week 3 matchup in Denver's wideout corps against 35-year-old Lions RCB Rashean Mathis, whom PFF has charted with 13 catches allowed on 15 targets through two weeks. ... Detroit has also played leaky tight end coverage early on, ceding a 5-74-1 number to Ladarius Green on Opening Day and 5-30-1 to Kyle Rudolph last week. Unfortunately, the Broncos' usage of Daniels and Green prevents either from being a truly reliable fantasy option. Daniels would be your best bet as a TE1 streamer. Although he has not been heavily targeted yet, Daniels is playing 91% of the Broncos' snaps while functioning as a catch-first tight end. Green is playing only 37% of the downs and has focused on blocking.

Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Lions 20

Monday Night Football

Kansas City @ Green Bay

In what's projected as the lowest scoring week of the NFL season so far, Chiefs-Packers quietly has Week 3's biggest Vegas total at 49 points. Don't be shy about targeting this game in DFS and season-long lineup decisions. ... Reeling in the backend minus top CB Sean Smith (suspension), Kansas City yielded a combined 5:2 TD-to-INT ratio and 590 yards to Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, and widely-left-for-dead Peyton Manning in the first two weeks. Particularly with Eddie Lacy (ankle) banged up, this could be a sneaky blowup spot for Aaron Rodgers, who's yet to really put his foot on the gas for a full game so far this year. Rodgers has an incredible 38:0 TD-to-INT ratio over his last 14 home games. ... There's a school of thought inside the fantasy community that "handcuffing" is a waste of roster spots. I'm in the camp that believes handcuffing is the way to go on a certain handful of running backs who have quality and clear-cut backups. Lacy is one of them. Lacy is shaping up as a game-time decision after leaving last week's win over the Seahawks on a cart, and not returning. If Lacy can't go, James Starks will be a borderline RB1 in a game where Green Bay is favored by 6.5 points at home. Operating as an every-down back off the bench against Seattle, Starks logged 24 touches and 106 total yards. The Packers aren't afraid to feed Starks voluminously on the ground and sprinkle him into the passing game.

Rodgers' target distribution in Weeks 1-2: Randall Cobb 16; Davante Adams 13; James Jones and Richard Rodgers 7; Starks and Ty Montgomery 4; Lacy 3. ... After hitting pay dirt in Week 1 and dropping an 8-116 number on Seattle in Week 2, Cobb enters Week 3 as the overall WR18 in PPR leagues. I think he's a good bet to finish top ten. On Monday night, expect Cobb to mainly do battle against up-and-down second-year Chiefs CB Phillip Gaines, who plays right corner in Kansas City's base defense and covers the slot in sub-packages. ... Although Jones has been lightly targeted, he's playing 95% of the offensive snaps and has three touchdowns through two games. Jones now has 21 TDs over his last 25 games with Aaron Rodgers. Jones has the best Week 3 matchup in Green Bay's receiver corps. Jones will run most of his routes at Chiefs RCB Jamell Fleming, the primary burn victim of DeAndre Hopkins (9-98-2) in Week 1 and Emmanuel Sanders (8-87-2) in Week 2. ... Adams gets the toughest draw on paper against Chiefs rookie LCB Marcus Peters -- an early favorite for DROY honors -- though the Packers' receivers move around enough that Adams will also get chances against Fleming and Gaines. Adams is capable of playing all three receiver positions. I like Jones a bit better in this particular game, but would still view Adams as no worse than a WR3 with WR2 upside. ... Richard Rodgers logged a 65% snap rate to Andrew Quarless' 28% in last week's win over the Seahawks. Rodgers is clearly the Packers' No. 1 tight end, but in fantasy he's a low-volume, touchdown-dependent commodity. Rodgers will help you if he finds the end zone against Kansas City, and hurt you if he doesn't.

Whereas Green Bay has a Week 3 Vegas team total of nearly 28 points, Kansas City's total is just over 21. I do believe this is a game where the over bet on the Chiefs would be the sharpest play. ... The Packers have played Jekyll & Hyde early-season run defense, getting gashed by Bears RBs for a combined 29-158-1 on Opening Day, before holding Marshawn Lynch to 15-41-0 last Sunday night. Green Bay did give up 10-78 to Russell Wilson on the ground, and in the first two weeks has lost core run defenders ILB Sam Barrington (foot) and DE Josh Boyd (ankle) to injured reserve. Along with Lynch, Le'Veon Bell, and Adrian Peterson, I like Jamaal Charles as a top-four fantasy running back start in Week 3. ... Wilson and Jay Cutler's (4-31) Weeks 1 and 2 rushing lines against the Packers may be noteworthy for willing scrambler Alex Smith, who I like as a two-quarterback-league starter on Monday night. I'd probably still balk at classifying Smith as a legitimate QB1 against a Green Bay defense that held Cutler and Wilson to a combined 37-of-66 passing (56.1%) for 431 yards (6.53 YPA) three touchdowns, and two interceptions . Smith is best viewed as a high-floor, low-ceiling fantasy quarterback option week in and week out.

Smith's target distribution through two games: Jeremy Maclin 16; Charles 13; Travis Kelce 11; De'Anthony Thomas 6; Albert Wilson 4; James O'Shaughnessy 3; Knile Davis 2. ... It's absolutely criminal that Kelce is averaging 5.5 targets per game. He's currently 14th among tight ends in targets, but first in catch rate (91%), second in yards (164), third in touchdowns (2), and second in yards after catch (84), per PFF's charts. Kelce is an every-week fantasy starter regardless, but his usage is frustrating even as he's producing at a top-four TE1 clip. ... Hurt by game flow in Week 1 and Denver's elite corners in Week 2, Maclin has played better than his early-season box-score lines (5-52-0, 4-57-0) suggest. I still like Maclin as a borderline WR2 play against a Packers defense that permitted 5-78 to injured Bears No. 1 receiver Alshon Jeffery on Opening Day, and 7-92-1 to Seahawks No. 1 Doug Baldwin last Sunday night. ... Thomas, O'Shaughnessy, and Wilson are all role players fighting for weekly scraps behind Charles, Maclin, and Kelce.

Score Prediction: Packers 27, Chiefs 23