Shortlist of Packers 2024 first round draft pick options using past trends
With the NFL draft right around the corner, it is once again time for me to compile my shortlist of potential first-round targets for the Green Bay Packers at pick 25.
The ultimate goal for me in this exercise is to whittle the list down to 3-5 prospects using past draft tendencies and thresholds that, more often than not, GM Brian Gutekunst has stuck to.
Since it is my intention to get this list as small as possible, that means having to adhere to each requirement, even if that means leaving a favorite prospect of yours off the final list.
Before fully diving in, I’ll add the all-important caveat that while trends and tendencies have emerged under Gutekunst, some of which go beyond his tenure as GM, there is no black-and-white answer when it comes to determining who the Packers might be interested in—it is just about all gray. However, we can do our best to make educated guesses based on the information that we have.
Two years ago, when I first went through this exercise, I was 0-2 because Gutekunst selected Devonte Wyatt, who was 24 years old, and Quay Walker, a linebacker–two outliers. But last year, my faith in the process was restored with Lukas Van Ness – a very Packers-esque type of pick – as one of my final four prospects.
To begin, I used three big boards from Daniel Jeremiah, Pro Football Focus, and Jordan Reid of ESPN to compile my initial list. I drew a line in the sand at the top 40 prospects for each – I had to stop somewhere – and if one prospect was within the top 40 of one big board but out on another, I included them.
On this initial list, I didn’t include quarterbacks, running backs, safeties, wide receivers, tight ends, or interior offensive linemen since those either aren’t positions of need or positions we haven’t seen the Packers draft in the first round. And when it comes to safety, well, there just aren’t any in this year’s class worth taking at pick 25.
Also, any player who isn’t a part of those position groups but is ranked in the top 15 of all three boards, I did not include either, with the thought being they won’t be available when the Packers are picking.
Below is that initial list, and from here, I will begin to whittle it down by crossing out names of prospects who don’t meet other key criteria.
Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA
Jer’Zhan Newton, IDL, Illinois
Byron Murphy, IDL, Texas
Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Graham Barton, OT, Duke
Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Clemson
Payton Wilson, LB, NC State
Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan
Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
Adisa Isaac, Edge, Penn State
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State
Braden Fiske, IDL, Florida State
Ennis Rakestraw, CB, Missouri
Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri
Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M
Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
The first threshold I’m going to use is Relative Athletic Score (RAS). Since 2018, Gutekunst has made 61 draft picks with 54 of them registering a RAS. Of those 54 picks, 40 have scored a RAS of at least 8.0, with 25 of them registering at least 9.0.
In the first round specifically, six of Gutekunst’s eight selections have scored above 9.0. The two that didn’t were Darnell Savage and Jordan Love, who were both close. So, the next set of names will only include those from above who registered a RAS of at least 9.0.
Graham Barton, OT, Duke
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State
Laiatu Latu, Edge UCLA
Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State
Braden Fiske, IDL, Florida State
Byron Murphy, IDL, Texas
Jer’Zhan Newton, IDL, Illinois
Payton Wilson, LB, NC State
Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M
Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Next up we will take into account the prospect’s age. As I’ve already mentioned, while Wyatt was 24, six of Gutekunst’s other first-round picks were all 21 years old, with Stokes being 22.
So, for this next cutoff, anyone over 21 was removed from the list. I’ll quickly point out that Edgerrin Cooper is still just 22 years old, which does make him a reasonable selection in this regard, but we’ve got to remain strict with the process.
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State
Jordan Morgan, OT Arizona
Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
Jer’Zhan Newton, IDL, Illinois
Byron Murphy, IDL, Texas
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Graham Barton, OT, Duke
Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
Lastly, to get this list down to where I want it from a numbers perspective, I’ve got to get rigid and we will hope it doesn’t come back to bite me.
For tackles, 33-inch arms have been a pretty hard and fast rule for the Packers, so that would eliminate Barton (ouch) and Morgan. Wiggins, at 173 pounds, is far lighter than what we see the Packers typically target at defensive back. In addition to that, while I hate to be that guy, I think Murphy will be gone as the top interior defender.
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State
Jer’Zhan Newton, IDL, Illinois
I am comfortable calling the list of five prospects above my final answer to all of this. But why not keep pushing–just for fun.
It’s quite possible that DeJean has put himself out of range for the Packers, and with Suamataia barely making the original list, coming in at No. 37 on Reid’s board but not being within the top 50 on PFF’s or Jeremiah’s, I’ll remove him as well, with the thought being that 25 could be too early to take him.
It’s also worth noting that Mims, at 340 pounds, is quite bigger than the tackles the Packers usually add in the draft. Although, in my opinion, his athleticism negates that, but we will remove him as well.
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State
Jer’Zhan Newton, IDL, Illinois
If we want to get crazy and take this another step, Guyton is the only one from this group who competed in the Senior Bowl. In the last two drafts, 10 of Gutekunst’s 24 picks have participated in that event. On top of that, the Packers have also had Guyton in for a top-30 visit and in the last two draft cycles, 16 of the Packers 60 official pre-draft visits have ended up on the team.
