Second-year breakout players for the 2021 NFL season
You never know when a player will make The Leap. For quarterbacks, it can take a couple years, and then, the light comes on. Ask Josh Allen about that. Pass-rushers have historically shown bumps in productivity in their second seasons, as they develop their rudimentary technique and get the hang of NFL-level blocking. Defensive backs can take longer, though there are exceptions when talent and scheme perfectly intertwine.
When teams select players in the draft, they obviously want to maximize first-contract value, so those players who can make The Leap in their second seasons help their teams as much as they help their future value. The players on this list aren’t the guys who hit the NFL in 2020 and found that the NFL hits back hard — more the rookies who showed enough in 2020 to make us believe that as they head into the 2021 season (with an actual offseason to help them get the hang of things), they’ll be able to show their full potential at the NFL level sooner than later.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
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Which Tua Tagovailoa will we see in 2021? The guy who helped the Dolphins beat the Rams, Cardinals, and Chargers in successive early games with a 5-0 touchdown-to-interception total, or the guy who had to be benched against the Broncos just after that positive stretch because he couldn't quite figure out what he was seeing? https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2020/11/23/tua-tagovailoa-benched-brian-flores-dolphins-ryan-fitzpatrick/ The Dolphins certainly don't want to see the guy who threw three picks against the Bills in Week 17... https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1345834008895234054 Tagovailoa showed a lot of potential in his rookie campaign as a timing-and-rhythm passer -- a point guard of sorts, and the addition of 2021 first-round receiver Jaylen Waddle should help Tagovailoa immeasurably in the short-to-intermediate passing game. But he'll need to improve as a deep thrower. Per Pro Football Focus, Tagovailoa completed just 10 of 29 passes of 20 or more air yards for 259 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception), and his ability to adjust to pressure is something else that needs work. Last season, when pressured, Tagovailoa completed 29 of 66 passes for 310 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. The tools are there, but it's up to Tagovailoa to organize his talent against the NFL's more quarterback-unfriendly concepts.
Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Football Team
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When I watched tape with Gibson, the Memphis alum, before the 2020 draft, it was obvious to me that he was the most explosive player in his draft class, regardless of position. The running back/receiver hybrid, who had just 33 carries in his college career (for 369 yards, 11.2 yards per carry and four touchdowns), became a total back in his rookie season, amassing 826 yards and scoring 11 rushing touchdowns on 184 attempts. Gibson also provided value as a receiver, but it was his efforts on the ground that were transformational. This was never more the case than in Washington's 41-16 thumping of the Cowboys on Thanksgiving day, when Gibson carried the ball 20 times for 115 yards and three touchdowns. https://twitter.com/wftnetwork/status/1408814007427944450 Not Amused: Jerry Jones. In that game, Gibson became the first rookie to score three touchdowns on Thanksgiving Day since some guy named Randy Moss burned Dallas for three scores in 1998. Among qualifying NFL backs regardless of tenure in 2020, Gibson finished eighth in Football Outsiders' DYAR (season-cumulative) metric, and sixth in DVOA, FO's per-play stat that is adjusted for situation and opponent. Gibson was slowed by turf toe late in the season, but if he's healthy all the way through 2021, watch the heck out.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
(Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports)
The LSU alum started his NFL career hot, with 25 carries for 138 yards and a touchdown on opening day against the Texans' hapless defense, which tried running a bunch of two-high stuff to stop Patrick Mahomes, and wound up being a huckleberry for the rookie.
https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2020/09/10/chiefs-go-against-type-play-bully-ball-to-take-texans-defense-to-the-woodshed/ It was a bit of a mixed bag after that -- Edwards-Helaire had a 161-yard game against Buffalo's estimable defense in Week 6, but there were diminishing returns down the stretch, especially as injuries affected Kansas City's offensive line. The reformation of that line is one reason we're so high on Edwards-Helaire in 2021. From left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. to left guard Joe Thuney to center Creed Humphrey and on and on, the Chiefs' new-look offensive line is built to run both zone and gap and kick the butts of every defense it faces. That run you see against Houston was the preamble to set the tone, and on gap and pulling blocks in 2020, per Sports Info Solutions, Edwards-Helaire gained 187 yards and scored a touchdown on just 37 carries. In his final season at LSU (2019), he gained 228 yards and scored three touchdowns on 41 carries. CEH could benefit from an impossible math problem -- if you stack the box against Mahomes, he'll destroy you, and if you lay off, the Chiefs will go bully-ball, and you'll be in a different type of trouble. Edwards-Helaire gained 874 yards and scored five rushing touchdowns on 196 carries; not that he'll get 300-plus carries in this offense, but he might get 300 touches for a good 1,500 yards behind a reinvented front five. The Chiefs are also using Edwards-Helaire on routes he's familiar with leading up to the new season, which is nice. https://twitter.com/jdiz1617/status/1425104080851066886
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
(Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)
Like just about everyone on the 49ers' 2020 roster, Aiyuk missed time (four games) due to injury, but when he was on the field, the 25th overall pick from Arizona State showed the ability to win in compressed situations, and manufacture yards after the catch in some interesting ways. His 38-yard touchdown on a simple screen against the Eagles (second GIF) was pretty spectacular. https://twitter.com/limajuliettango/status/1336129041045270528 https://twitter.com/JoshNorris/status/1424891494884945922 Even with limited time, and a weird quarterback situation, Aiyuk ranked seventh among rookie receivers with 93, catching 60 passes for 748 yards and five touchdowns. He also ranked sixth with 286 yards after the catch, and given the importance of that in Kyle Shanahan's offense, it's easy to imagine Ayiuk as a key cog in San Francisco's 2021 passing game -- especially with a more dynamic quarterback over time in Trey Lance. Football Outsiders projects Ayiuk with 59 catches for 753 yards and four touchdowns this season; I'd take the over on all of those.
Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears
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A smaller (5-foot-9, 175 pound) burner with legitimate sub-4.4 speed, Mooney didn't get many chances to use that speed in 2020 -- when targeted on passes of 20 air yards or more last season, he caught just four of 23 attempts for 158 yards, and he had the third-lowest Receiving DYAR in the NFL on such throws, but when you look at how the Bears' quarterbacks threw deep in 2020 (Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles combined for 23 deep completions on 74 attempts for 673 yards, four touchdowns, and five interceptions), you can understand why the team is willing to give the Tulane alum a mulligan. Mooney caught 61 passes on 98 targets overall for 631 yards and four touchdowns, and if whatever combination of Andy Dalton and Justin Fields can get him the ball downfield with any measure of efficiency, things should spark up for both Mooney and the Bears' passing game. Another factor to consider -- with the Bears reportedly moving Allen Robinson to more of a slot role, Mooney projects to get even more outside snaps than the 426 he had in 2020. He's certainly got the ups to transcend his size in contested catch situations. https://twitter.com/thecheckdown/status/1312865183946010624
Henry Ruggs III, Las Vegas Raiders
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It was one of the mysteries of the 2020 season. Ruggs ran a 4.27 40-yard dash pre-draft, and his Alabama tape was littered with big plays downfield. So, when the Raiders selected him with the 12th overall pick in the 2020 draft, you'd expect a ton of deep shots from Derek Carr to Ruggs, right? Not so fast, Batman. Last season, Ruggs was targeted just 15 times on passes of 20 or more air yards -- that ranked him eighth among all rookie receivers, tied with two Eagles rookies -- John Hightower and Jalen Reagor. Ruggs caught five of those deep passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns, proving his explosive potential even with limited opportunities. “Ruggs didn’t have an offseason program last year like a lot of these rookies," head coach and offensive shot-caller Jon Gruden said in June. "He got hurt in the first game against Carolina, got the Coronavirus last year, missed some more time. He’s a big reason why Darren Waller had a big year because the threat of Ruggs. We don’t want Ruggs to just be threat. We’d like him to be on the receiving end of a lot of those threats. So, we’re trying to get him more and more involved in the pass offense, and so far, so good.” When you have a guy who can do this against the Chiefs, even with all those forces arrayed against him, it would indeed behoove you to get him more involved. https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1315359849480413184
Michael Onwenu, OL, New England Patriots
(AP Photo/Steven Senne)
Bill Belichick values versatility in his players as much as any other attribute. Onwenu. the sixth-round pick from Michigan (yes, the Pats do have a decent history with sixth-rounders from Michigan) proved to be a Patriot to the core in this regard right away. In his rookie season, Onwenu had considerable snaps at three different positions -- 112 at left guard, 185 at right guard, and 616 at right tackle. He played well wherever he landed, allowing three sacks, one quarterback hit, and 10 quarterback hurries in 486 pass-blocking snaps. Onwenu made our "Secret Superstars" team in Week 3, when he moved from right tackle to left guard because center David Andrews was injured, and left guard Joe Thuney took Andrews' position. It was not a good experience for Raiders defensive lineman Maliek Collins, who got himself buried by Onwenu on Sony Michel's 48-yard run.
“Well, Mike’s shown a lot of versatility,” Belichick said the day after that 36-20 win. “He played right guard at Michigan, and that’s pretty much the only spot he played. Here he’s worked both guards and worked at right tackle, and right tackle was a new position for him. Left guard, even though guard is guard, footwork is all different over there where he played yesterday for Joe [Thuney]. It’s kind of like playing left handed when you’ve been playing right handed your whole life. I think he’s done a really good job. He’s a smart kid, he’s got a lot of physical playing strength, he’s a good athlete, he’s got good football smarts and awareness and he’s done a good job for us, playing right tackle and then yesterday at guard he handled some good situations. He learned a lot and he’s still got a long way to go, but did a lot of good things.” Onwenu also made our list of the league's most underrated players halfway through the season, and we suspect his underrated days are over. It's estimated that he'll replace Thuney as the team's starting left guard now that Thuney has moved on to Kansas City. If he's able to stick at what may be his best position, Onwenu just may have Pro Bowl potential.
Javon Kinlaw, IDL, San Francisco 49ers
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In his final season at South Carolina, Kinlaw put up six sacks, seven quarterback hits, and 26 quarterback hurries in 352 pass-rushing snaps. This despite the fact that he lined up 201 times at nose tackle, which really wasn't the best use of Kinlaw's size (6-foot-6, 302 pounds) or his ferocious ability to get to the pocket as a three-tech defender. The 49ers selected Kinlaw with the 14th overall pick, hoping that he would replace DeForest Buckner as the team's predominant three-tech disruptor. Kinlaw lined up 353 times in the B-gap and 147 times over the tackle in Robert Saleh's defense, so that part checked out. However, between knee issues and a run on the 49ers' Reserve/COVID list, Kinlaw played in 14 games with just 12 starts. He had 1.5 sacks and 19 total pressures in a defense that was as injury-plagued as any we've seen in recent years, though he was able to show his potential at times. https://twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1328379394369458176 Kinlaw has been dealing with the recovery process after January knee surgery, but new defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans (formerly the 49ers' inside linebackers coach) sounds positive about his return to the field -- and return to form. "Kinlaw, it's just owning the techniques," Ryans said in July. "And I know last year it was tough for Kinlaw where he kind of came into camp, didn't have an offseason, so it was tough. And you saw that progression go through the season. Now for him to have OTA and come into training camp, I think that's the one guy I'm the most excited about seeing a really huge jump from Year one to Year two." Kinlaw has the stuff to dominate at every level as long as he stays healthy.
Alex Highsmith, EDGE, Pittsburgh Steelers
(Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)
If there was any question about Highsmith's potential as a premier edge defender in Pittsburgh's defense, the second-year man from Charlotte dispensed with them very quickly -- it took about half of the first quarter of the Hall of Fame game against the Cowboys for Highsmith to demolish Dallas left tackle Ty Nsekhe with this spin move for a sack of quarterback Garrett Gilbert. https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1423440724457046023 With Bud Dupree gone to Tennessee in free agency, T.J. Watt needs a new bookend, and Highsmith has seemingly been targeted by his coaches as That Guy since he was drafted. “In regards to the loss of Bud and the expectations and the depth and things at that position, the lynchpin to that entire discussion is the natural maturation of Alex Highsmith from Year 1 to Year 2,” Mike Tomlin said of Highsmith in April. “You know the standard of expectations that we have for our young players moving from [Year] 1 to [Year] 2. He could be the poster boy for that. We need a significant rise in terms of all areas of play from him. But I also think it’s reasonable to expect it given what he’s been exposed to, given the quality young man that he is and his work ethic and the environment we intend to put him in. I think it’s reasonable to expect him to rise up and meet the challenges.” In 2020, Highsmith had 21 total pressures on just 224 pass-rushing snaps, and when he dropped into coverage, he allowed five catches on nine targets for 57 yards, 23 yards after the catch, no touchdowns, one interception, and an opponent passer rating of 35.2. The interception came in Week 8 against the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, and it was based on an in-game adjustment Highsmith made. “I knew when that play started they were coming back to that because they ran the same play on the first half, and I didn’t drop deep enough,” Highsmith said. “So I learned from that play and just dropped deeper… The ball just fell into my hands.”
Well, luck is the residue of design, as they say, and Highsmith proved that on this play. He seems to have what it takes to be the Steelers' next great edge defender.
Chase Young, EDGE, Washington Football Team
(Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports)
Is it ridiculous to assume that the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year could be in for a breakout season? Not really. Young had 7.5 sacks in his rookie campaign, his 40 total pressures per Pro Football Focus were the most among all rookie edge defenders, and there were times when he looked absolutely dominant on the field -- his 1.5-sack performance against the Eagles in his NFL debut was one such example. https://twitter.com/CoachPaulAlex/status/1305954928129699848 But there were also times when Young was less of a factor, when his raw athletic gifts were sucked up by more practiced professional blockers. Given Young's place on a defensive line that featured five first-round picks in 2020 (and still features four even after Ryan Kerrigan's departure to Philadelphia), and the general second-year productivity bump enjoyed by a lot of NFL pass-rushers, there's no reason not to expect Young to earn his place among the league's best quarterback disruptors in 2021 and beyond.
Isaiah Simmons, LB, Arizona Cardinals
(Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports)
Whenever I see NFL teams selecting multi-position defensive players early enough in the draft to virtually force a starting role sooner than later, I'm reminded of something Casey Stengel once said on another matter: "They say it can't be done, but sometimes that doesn't always work." Unless your coaches have an absolute plan for such a player, that player will get lost in transition until and unless such a plan comes together. This was the case for Simmons, the former Clemson weapon everywhere from the defensive line to the slot, who the Cardinals selected with the eighth overall pick. General manager Steve Keim has long been interested in multi-positional players -- his history with that goes back to former draft picks Tyrann Mathieu in 2013 and Deone Bucannon in 2014 -- so you would assume that Simmons would come on board with a specific goal in mind for his unique gifts. That didn't really happen. Simmons started just seven games last season, playing 89 snaps on the defensive line, 193 in the box, 71 in the slot, eight at free safety, and 15 at slot cornerback. He was predominantly effective as an interior blitzer and coverage guy, but overall, it seemed that option anxiety got the better of him. “It’s been two weeks in a row where he’s playing like an NFL linebacker. He’s playing some nickel, he’s covering receivers,” Cardinals defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said of Simmons in November. “To his credit, he’s been patient -- he’s been frustrated -- but he’s been patient in waiting his turn and learning and working in practice. It’s showing in the games. We’ve got to play him more because he can help us win. “He’s been patient to wait his turn, but it’s time.” Simmons got more snaps as the season went along, but he also showed the dings in the plan with increased opportunities. He allowed touchdown passes against the Eagles and 49ers in Weeks 15 and 16, https://twitter.com/MarkSchofield/status/1321454709320896513 In May, Joseph told NFL.com's Jim Trotter that the Simmons plan is now more specific. “He’s comfortable at outside linebacker,” Trotter said Joseph told him. “He’s comfortable rushing the passer, we even used him at safety for two games, but the one area we want to work with him on this year is playing inside linebacker behind that line of scrimmage in the run game and then the dime package.” Makes sense, especially since the Cardinals doubled down and selected another multi-positional linebacker, Tulsa's Zaven Collins, in the first round of the 2021 draft. If the Cardinals are going to have the same adaptive issues with Collins this year, they'd better get Simmons' role nailed down sooner than later.
Willie Gay Jr., LB, Kansas City Chiefs
(Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports)
The Chiefs selected Gay out of Mississippi State with the 63rd overall pick in the second round of the 2020 draft in part because the then-defending Super Bowl champs didn't really have a starting move linebacker who could kill run fits and make full-field coverage stops. The combination is kind of a necessity in today's NFL. But Gay was negatively impacted by the lack of a preseason, and he went through injury issues late in the season. “It sucked, man," Gay said in late July of missing Super Bowl LV. "I was actually at home because COVID happened, and for some reason, I couldn’t travel. I knew it was going to be uncomfortable for me with the knee injury on the plane. So being home, having to watch that game man, and then of course losing it, it sucked. I really just committed myself this year and I really want it to be a lot different this year.” So far, as he says, it's been a different experience. “Man, I’ll be honest. You have confidence as a player because you’ve been doing it your whole life, but when you can’t prepare like you normally do, you get a new playbook, the confidence level goes down a lot. So having OTAs, having this good training camp that we’re at right now, and learning even more, it boosts it up a lot. Being able to make plays, being able to understand the scheme enough to make plays, it really helps.” Gay will need to understand the system to make a real difference -- he's a plus athlete, but his diagnostic skills can use some work. He played just 269 snaps in his rookie campaign, but with the confidence brought by a more normal offseason, he has the versatility and full-field ability to make a real difference in the middle of Steve Spagnuolo's defense. https://twitter.com/NFL_DougFarrar/status/1425105481320869897
“He has the potential to be really, really good in this league,” defensive lineman Chris Jones said of Gay last December. “Just got to keep working, keep his head down. He can fly around -- man, he can fly around, and that’s definitely why he went in the second round. But he’s made a huge impact to this defense.
“We’ve been able to use him multiple ways, and we just got to keep working and keep at it.”
L'Jarius Sneed, CB, Kansas City Chiefs
(Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports)
When Chiefs cornerback Bashaud Breeland was suspended for the first four games of the 2020 season for violating the league's policy on substance abuse, it appeared to be a bad deal for Kansas City's defense. In truth, what that suspension allowed defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to do was to experience the potential of Sneed, the fourth-round pick from Louisiana Tech. Sneed had interceptions in each of his first two NFL games, suffered a fractured collarbone in Week 3 against the Ravens, and came back strong off injured reserve in Week 11. Both outside and in the slot, Sneed allowed 36 catches on 57 targets for 302 yards, 155 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, three interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 66.6 -- by far the lowest of any rookie cornerback last season. (Minnesota's Cameron Dantzler finished second at 94.0). With a full season under his belt, and a well-earned starting role, Sneed should continue to be a force as a pass defender...
...and as a blitzer off the edge. Did we mention that he had four sacks last season, including two in the playoffs?
Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Detroit Lions
(Junfu Han-Imagn Content Services, LLC)
In Matt Patricia's epic disaster of a defense, the 2020 third-overall pick out of Ohio State had some great moments... https://twitter.com/uSTADIUM/status/1310344413067972609 ...and some less than stellar moments. Often in the same game. https://twitter.com/PFF_Fantasy/status/1310332574284292103 Well, there are a lot of people still trying to catch up to Kyler Murray. In 2020, the Lions were the NFL's worst defense when using man coverage, so of course, they used a ton of it. Okudah was effective in both man and zone coverages in college, and he's a great press defender, so we'll have to see what new Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, formerly the Saints' secondary coach, has in mind for him. New Orleans had a man-heavy defense in 2020, but switched it up well enough to rank third in Defensive DVOA against the pass. Okudah should thrive in a defense that's actually schemed up for optimal success, as opposed to the superimpositions of a coaching staff in over their heads. Okudah missed seven games in 2020 due to injury, and he allowed 38 receptions on 50 targets for 579 yards, 187 yards after the catch, one interception, one touchdown, and an opponent passer rating of 112.0 when he was healthy, but it's fair to give anyone under Patricia in 2020 a do-over in an environment more conducive to actual success.
Kamren Curl, S, Washington Football Team
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This, we did not expect. Through three seasons at Arkansas, Curl allowed 80 catches on 142 targets for 1,154 yards, 371 yards after the catch, 12 touchdowns, two interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 105.2. Like a lot of college defenders these days, Curl played all over the place, with considerable snaps at free safety, slot defender, box defender, and outside cornerback. He was an afterthought in the 2020 draft, waiting until the 216th overall pick in the seventh round before Washington called his name. Curl didn't get real reps until safety Landon Collins suffered a torn Achilles tendon in late October, and then? A different Kamren Curl showed up. All of a sudden, his snap counts doubled, his responsibilities expanded, and he was able to meet every challenge. Playing everywhere he did in college, with additional snaps as a blitzer on the defensive line, Curl allowed 43 catches on 54 targets for 408 yards, 258 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, three interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 87.3. “He fits wherever we put him and he’s done a great job of that," defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio said of Curl in June. "He played multiple positions last year and really had a fine year. We expect him to continue to be who he is. "He’s bright and a good football player and makes good football decisions on the field. He communicates well with his teammates. We just want our guys to work. Put in the work and develop. Roles will be determined. Right now the focus is how we do things, where you’re expected to be and get there and play fast." https://twitter.com/TimeoutSPORTS3/status/1338270823354953729 With Collins back on the field, Washington can move Curl around to other positions, perhaps using his route anticipation abilities more in the slot. "Whatever role they got for me, I can play it," Curl said this summer. "Really, I just want to be on the field helping the team out. So when that comes, we'll cross that bridge." Kamren Curl was a surprise to just about everyone in 2020. That will not be the case in 2021 -- the word is out.
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