Should Sebastian Vettel be worried about Charles Leclerc as Ferrari team-mate in 2019?
Sebastian Vettel's 2018 Formula One season can be summed up in one phrase: "unfulfilled promise". That promise started early on and it looked, for a while, that the season would go down to the wire. As it was, his own errors and Lewis Hamilton's brilliance meant the Briton's fifth title became a formality from Singapore onwards.
Although they will want to finish the season on a high in Abu Dhabi, Ferrari can start to look towards 2019. Vettel can do so, too, but with it comes a fresh challenge posed by a new team-mate.
Out goes the long-standing, steady number two driver in Kimi Raikkonen and in comes the, talented youngster, Charles Leclerc. Could the 21-year-old Monegasque even beat the four-time champion?
Vettel is a great driver. Four world championships and 50-odd wins puts him up there statistically with some of the sport's legends. But he is on increasingly shaky ground at Ferrari. Yes, he has a contract until the end of 2019 and he is an asset to the team.
His reputation in the past year or so has taken a few knocks. Driver error in both 2017 and 2018 (moreso) contributed to two Lewis Hamilton titles.
In his four years at Ferrari Vettel has had the trusty Kimi Raikkonen as his companion - a steady team-mate whose finest form is well behind him but who is a willing wingman and capable of contributing to the team cause. Despite a resurgent season, Raikkonen has not regularly challenged his team-mate. Over their four seasons together the German has scored nearly 30 per cent more points than Raikkonen.
The last time Vettel had a team-mate who actually challenged him? 2014. The driver was Daniel Ricciardo, who was in his first season at Red Bull. The Australian took three wins that season (Vettel none) and scored 238 points to his team-mate's 167. Until this year, it was probably Vettel's most difficult season.
Leclerc's arrival presents Vettel with a similar situation, albeit without huge regulation changes as a backdrop. Will the Scuderia still favour the German? Leclerc is, after all, their academy driver and one of their own. He is, if all goes well, where their future is. It will all depend on where their championship hopes are.
Unlike Raikkonen, the Scuderia's new recruit will not be employed to be a malleable, solid and reliable back-up to their main man. The Monegasque has shown his talent this season, with Ferrari promoting him after less than a full season in F1. It is a statement of both intent and faith.
Leclerc has done everything he could have done as a rookie. Yes, he has been helped by an improved Sauber team but he has still blown away his team-mate. Marcus Ericsson may not be the most highly rated driver on the grid but he has competed in nearly 100 grands prix and in 2018 has achieved some decent results. His team-mate's record speaks for itself. 27 points to Ericsson's nine and eight points finishes. He has clearly not been fazed by the demands of his first season in F1. Ferrari is a different matter.
There will be a lot of pressure on Leclerc. More than he can currently know. Putting in occasionally eye-catching performances in a midfield car is not the same as having to deliver every week at the front. Raikkonen, for all his faults in his second stint at Ferrari, has done that well in 2018 with 11 podiums including one victory. Will Leclerc be able to deliver that consistency in only his second season?
It would be wrong to look at 2019 as a make or break for Vettel. He is, after all, a big factor in his team's recent revival. But he has also been a factor in their failures in 2017 and more prominently 2018. Would Fernando Alonso or Lewis Hamilton have made the same costly mistakes?
In terms of his reputation, it is a big moment. Deliver a championship for Ferrari and all is good. Even great. Get beaten (comfortably or otherwise) by a fresh and talented team-mate and his standing will be reduced and his future at Ferrari will be called into question. A cool and laid-back man outside of the cockpit, Vettel has a tendency towards impetuosity in the car when things do not go his way. If Leclerc starts quickly, he could get really under his team-mate's skin.
Vettel will of course back himself. And so he should. This year he has been beaten by Lewis Hamilton on his absolute best form. His own mistakes have been amplified as a result. You do not suddenly become a bad driver. He has comfortably beaten Raikkonen in the past three years and will do so again in 2018.
Charles Leclerc is an unknown. That should be exciting for fans - especially the tifosi - and slightly worrying for Vettel. Leclerc's outlook and situation could hardly be different to Raikkonen's. We have a young man at the start of his career, being given a dream seat and a man who, still quick, but with his best years and probably most of his drive behind him. There is still a while to wait yet but Vettel vs Leclerc will be one of the most fascinating stories to follow in 2019.
