Scouting report: What Cincinnati Bearcats must do vs. Iowa State to keep pace in Big 12
Games in the Big 12 come fast and furious and the next is Tuesday at Fifth Third Arena when the Cincinnati Bearcats play their eighth ranked opponent of the season, Iowa State.
Among the victories Coach T.J. Otzelberger's Cyclones have on their resumé are a pair against top 10 opponents Houston and Kansas.
Since losing back-to-back games in a November holiday invitational to Virginia Tech and then-No. 12 Texas A&M, Iowa State has dropped Big 12 games at Oklahoma, BYU and Baylor.
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UC is in desperate need of another Quadrant 1 win, having just two. Only West Virginia and Oklahoma State have fewer.
"There's nowhere to run and hide in this league," UC coach Wes Miller said. "Every night it's going to be something. We better not have the hangover effect because of what we have coming in here. Again, another opportunity Tuesday night. We're going to need Fifth Third to be electric again."
Reverse the luck
KenPom.com has a Luck rating which currently has the Bearcats at No. 341 out of 362 teams. Loosely interpreted, if a team should win 50% of their close games, the Bearcats haven't been lucky. Their six Big 12 losses have been by a combined 22 points (less than four points per contest).
It's been a while
The Bearcats last met the Cyclones Dec. 1, 2016 in Ames and won 55-54 in overtime on a pair of Jacob Evans III free throws. Iowa State was ranked No. 19 at the time.
An infamous loss in history
The first meeting between the schools came in the second round of the NCAA tournament March 15, 1997. UC took a late lead on Melvin Levett's free throws after a controversial block call on Kelvin Cato. It then looked like the Bearcats had a defensive stop after a rebound by Darnell Burton. But, Kenny Pratt fell on Burton's leg tripping him. Instead of a foul, Burton was called for traveling. Iowa State's Klay Edwards made a go-ahead shot for the 67-66 lead. UC couldn't score in the final seconds and took the early exit.
3 keys to stopping Iowa State Tuesday
1. Value the basketball
The Cyclones are as pesky as Houston and are ranked among the NCAA leaders in steals, turnover margin and turnovers forced. They have almost twice as many steals as their opponents and average more than 22 points off of turnovers in each contest. A good decision-making night from Day Day Thomas, Jizzle James, Simas Lukošius or whoever handles the ball will be a priority.
2. Beat Iowa State to 70
It's not foolproof but that would be about eight points over what teams have averaged. When the Cyclones beat Houston it was a 57-53 slog in Ames. Their losses away from home have been 71-62 to the Hokies, 73-69 to the Aggies, 71-63 to the Sooners, 87-72 to the Cougars and 70-68 to the Bears. In three of UC's four Big 12 wins they have scored 71 points or more. They hit for 68 against UCF.
3. Perimeter protection, proficiency
In their trio of Big 12 losses, Iowa State was held to three, four and five 3-pointers. Their opponents (Oklahoma, BYU and Baylor) hit 10, 13 and 12 treys, respectively. The last game the Bearcats had 10 or more triples in a game was their last non-conference game against Evansville when they were 12-for-29. The health progression of C.J. Fredrick, the team's best three-point shooter, could play a factor in UC winning this category.
Cincinnati vs. Iowa State
Tip: 7 p.m. Tuesday, Fifth Third Arena (12,012)
TV/Radio: ESPN2/700 WLW
Series: Cincinnati leads 4-2
Iowa State scouting report
Record: 18-5 (7-3 Big 12)
Coach: T.J. Otzelberger (third season, 59-32)
Offense: 79.0 ppg
Defense: 62.1 ppg
Projected lineup
(Position, Height, Stats)
Milan Momalovic (F, 6'8", 12,6 ppg)
Tamin Lipsey (G, 6'1", 13.2 ppg)
Keshon Gilbert (G, 6'4", 13.9 ppg)
Tre King (F, 6'7", 9.7 ppg)
Robert Jones (F, 6'10", 8.4 ppg)
Cincinnati Bearcats scouting report
Record: 15-8 (4-6 Big 12)
Coach: Wes Miller (third season, 56-36)
Offense: 76.3 ppg
Defense: 66.8 ppg
Projected lineup
(Position, Height, Stats)
Viktor Lakhin (F, 6'11", 11.1 ppg)
Day Day Thomas (G, 6', 10.7 ppg)
John Newman III (F, 6'5" 10.0 ppg)
Simas Lukošius (G, 6'8", 9.3 ppg)
Aziz Bandaogo (C, 7', 7.6 ppg)
Players to watch
UNLV transfer Keshon Gilbert leads the Cyclones in scoring (13.9) and has had a high game of 25 vs. in-state rival Iowa. He also fills up the other categories and had a triple-double on Dec. 31 against New Hampshire with 10 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists. He's had a pair of double-double games including 15 points and 13 rebounds against Kansas State Jan. 24 in Big 12 play.
Bearcats redshirt junior Viktor Lakhin is in a slump that clearly must be broken for them to have much future success. He was UC's leading scorer until two games ago but has only been in double figures once in the past six games. In the West Virginia and Houston losses, he was scoreless and since the TCU win he's been 0-for-11 from three-point range. With Aziz Bandaogo not scoring at the same rate he did last season for Utah Valley, Jamille Reynolds has been UC's most reliable player in the paint. Somehow, Lakhin must find his baby hook and inside presence.
Rankings
NCAA NET: Iowa State is No. 9, UC No. 34
KenPom.com: Iowa State is No. 9, UC No. 32
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Here's how Cincinnati Bearcats basketball can handle Iowa State
