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San Francisco Giants' addition of Matt Chapman completes revamped lineup, but will they have enough pitching to stay afloat in the NL West?

The Giants gained impact and star power with Jung-Hoo Lee and Jorge Soler, and they could still add Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell to the rotation

Jordan Shusterman
Senior MLB analyst
·7 min read
48

For the second straight offseason, the San Francisco Giants have been tremendously active in free agency. Also for the second straight offseason, we’re left wondering if they’ve done enough to meaningfully alter a projection that has them once again slated for mediocrity.

Don’t get me wrong: This year’s crop of additions, most recently bolstered by the signing of third baseman Matt Chapman, is looking far stronger than the mishmash of mid they brought in a year ago. But in the larger context of San Francisco’s grand ambitions of bigger splashes (Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last year; Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto this time around), it’s hard not to view every subsequent move through the lens of consolation. And with the Giants' top targets this offseason both landing with their biggest rivals down the California coast, this winter feels like a respectable pivot, rather than a smashing success.

All that said, the Giants front office deserves credit for making far more significant changes than they did a year ago. Last winter, after missing out on Judge (ouch) and nixing Correa’s mega-deal due to concerns about his medical (perhaps a prudent decision), the Giants chose to spread nearly $200 million across eight MLB free agents:

While some of these signings proved more effective than others, I don’t think I’m breaking news by saying that the group didn’t exactly fuel World Series aspirations for San Francisco or its fan base. Fast-forward past last season’s 79-83 finish to today, and Rogers and Jackson remain key pieces of the bullpen. The other five are no longer on the roster.

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Last year, the Giants ranked eighth in total free-agent spending. This winter, after landing Chapman, San Francisco’s free-agent bill of guaranteed money has soared to $261.25 million given to five MLB free agents:

That total pales in comparison to the laughable sums of cash thrown around by the rival Dodgers — deferred or not — but it’s also comfortably more than any other team has spent in free agency this winter, with the Phillies a distant third due almost entirely to the $172 million deal they gave Aaron Nola at outset of the offseason. We know spending big doesn’t always translate to wins, but this kind of outlay from the Giants is something of an indication that the relative half-measures taken in free agency a year ago weren’t going to cut it this time.

This winter, the Giants needed impact and star power, and they did quite well after the disappointment of missing out on Ohtani and Yamamoto. A potential franchise center fielder in Lee whose prime should be ahead of him — rare for a free agent. A legitimate power threat — the kind the organization has lacked for so long — in Soler. An elite third-base defender with a streaky yet potent bat in Chapman.

Adding three every-day players to the lineup and bringing in a new manager in Bob Melvin are compelling strides toward launching this roster out of the swamp of mediocrity in which it has been mired for the past two years. While a lot will have to go right — especially on the mound — for the Giants to be rock-solid postseason contenders, their upgrades put them firmly in the crowded mix of NL hopefuls looking to outperform projections and snag a wild-card spot.

In securing Chapman on a shorter-term deal, the Giants effectively won a staring contest with agent Scott Boras in a similar manner to what the Cubs did with Cody Bellinger. Like Bellinger, Chapman boasted a wealth of hardware and demonstrated superstar upside in the not-so-distant past, but the volatility of his offensive game evidently scared potential suitors away from the kind of long-term commitments normally associated with the top free agents on the market. While Chapman was still a top target for San Francisco due to his excellent defense and relationship with new manager Bob Melvin dating to their days in Oakland, the Giants waited long enough to line up a deal that assumes far less risk for the team.

Now, with two frontline starters still available in Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, it’s hard not to wonder if the Giants have one more big move in them. Speaking to reporters after announcing the Chapman signing, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi was asked about the likelihood of continuing to add via free agency. He suggested that while something else could come up, the Giants are operating in “in-season mode” and focusing on finding playing time for the younger players already in the organization, especially on the mound.

Perhaps Zaidi is being truthful and San Francisco has zero intention of signing another starting pitcher before Opening Day. But if there is interest in adding to the rotation, this stance is an entirely practical one to take publicly, with Snell and Montgomery still unsigned. From a negotiation standpoint, what does Zaidi gain from declaring how badly the Giants still need a starter? Instead, hyping up internal options is an obvious way to project outward that perhaps the prized free-agent southpaws need a home like San Francisco more than San Francisco needs them. And if the deals Bellinger and Chapman settled for are any indication, such a tactic might prove prudent if Boras is unable to secure more lucrative deals elsewhere.

Regardless of the front office’s true feelings, it seems entirely fair to look at how San Francisco has addressed the pitching staff thus far and wonder if said moves are sufficient. With Logan Webb cemented as the staff ace and top prospect Kyle Harrison ready for a regular run after a cup of coffee last season, only two rotation spots appeared accounted for when the winter began, heightening the expectation that the pitching staff would be addressed externally in some fashion. Even after the team missed out on Yamamoto, there remained several free-agent starting pitching options that could’ve slotted in behind Webb.

Instead, the Giants opted to sign flame-throwing reliever Jordan Hicks as a starter and trade for a rehabbing Robbie Ray. The optimistic outlook features Hicks harnessing his high-powered arsenal over 100-plus innings and Ray returning mid-summer in All-Star form in time for a playoff push. A more gloomy vision sees Hicks’ control issues proving untenable as a starter and the Giants being too far back in the standings in the second half for Ray’s return to mean much at all. How the season unfolds remains to be seen, of course, but one thing is clear: While the Hicks and Ray acquisitions could be applauded for their creativity, it’s tough to feel as good about them as we do about the more straightforward upgrades to the lineup.

Finally, it must be said: No matter how rose-colored your glasses might be following all the additions, the Giants face an uphill battle in the NL West. That has been true for the past decade considering the Dodgers’ dominant presence — which is somehow further amplified by the additions of Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, among others — but it’s not just about the Giants’ biggest rivals in Los Angeles.

Arizona is not only coming off a surprise NL pennant run; they, too, made some significant offseason additions to bolster an already-ascendant roster. And while Melvin’s old club in San Diego might’ve lost more than it gained this winter, the Padres still boast a tremendously talented roster that should benefit greatly from flushing the bad vibes and the ridiculous amount of bad baseball luck they endured in 2023. Simply beating up on the Rockies — against whom the Giants are 38-13 the past three seasons — goes only so far. San Francisco has a tough road ahead in the division.

One more move for a starting pitcher would go a long way, though.