Rugby World Cup permutations: Which teams can qualify for quarter-finals?
The Rugby World Cup is hotting up as teams seek to secure their places in the quarter-finals.
The top two nations from each of the four pools will progress to the last eight, with the quarter-finals to be played on Saturday 14 and Sunday 15 October in Marseille and Paris.
In the event of a two-way tie, the nation that won the encounter between the two teams will progress; in the event of a three-way tie, the nation that finishes with the best points difference will finish on top, followed by the team that won the fixture between the two remaining teams.
Teams receive four points for a win, with a bonus point available for scoring four tries or more. A losing bonus point is received if you finish within seven points of your opponents; a draw is worth two points.
The third spot in each pool is crucial, too – while this will not allow teams further involvement at this year’s World Cup, it will secure automatic qualification for the next tournament in Australia in 2027.
Here’s how each pool currently looks, the remaining fixtures to be played and the permutations for quarter-final qualification.
Pool A
Team | Played | Wins | Draws | Losses | Points | Points difference |
1. New Zealand | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | +206 |
2. France | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | +125 |
3. Italy | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -14 |
4. Uruguay | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -99 |
5. Namibia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -218 |
Remaining fixtures
France vs Italy, 6 October, Lyon
France will top the group if they beat Italy in their final gamen. If Italy win, though, they should be through - France’s failure to get a bonus point against Uruguay leaves them vulnerable. Even if the two European teams finish locked together on 14 points - Italy win without a bonus point and France finish within seven - Italy will advance due to their final weekend win.
The complex scenario could come if Italy beat France with a bonus point, while the hosts take both a losing and try bonus point - it would leave all three teams locked on 15 points. In that case, the group winner would come down to points difference, with New Zealand top, and Italy, again, through by dint of their head-to-head victory over France.
Pool B
Team | Played | Wins | Draws | Losses | Points | Points difference |
1. South Africa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | +117 |
2. Ireland | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | +122 |
3. Scotland | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | +97 |
4. Tonga | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -102 |
5. Romania | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -234 |
Remaining fixtures
Ireland vs Scotland, 7 October, Paris
Tonga vs Romania, 8 October, Lille
The only way that South Africa can go out of the tournament is if Scotland beat Ireland with a bonus point and by a margin of 21 points or more, with Andy Farrell’s side taking a try bonus point - Scotland would then top the pool on points difference, with the grand slam winners joining them in the last eight due to their win over South Africa.
It could leave a scenario where Ireland actively need Scotland to score a late try to progress. In a hypothetical situation where Ireland have already scored four tries but find themselves down by 17 points in the final moments, a Scotland try to boost their point difference would be far more beneficial than an Ireland score.
Ireland will top Pool B provided they win their final fixture, while the most straightforward route to qualification for the Scots is to win with a bonus point whilst denying their opponents anything. A non-bonus point win would also be sufficient provided the Irish do not finish within seven points.
Pool C
Team | Played | Wins | Draws | Losses | Points | Points Difference |
1. Wales (q) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | +60 |
2. Australia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -1 |
3. Fiji | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | +6 |
4. Georgia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -25 |
5. Portugal | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -40 |
Remaining fixtures
Wales vs Georgia, 7 October, Nantes
Fiji vs Portugal, 8 October, Toulouse
Wales were the first team to secure their spot in the last eight with victory over Australia, and will top the pool assuming they avoid a slip-up against Georgia. Fiji will join them if they take even a single point from their final game against Portugal due to their head-to-head win over the Wallabies, whose last hope is a Portugal upset in which Fiji fail to either score four tries or remain within seven points.
Pool D
Team | Played | Wins | Draws | Losses | Points | Points difference |
1. England (Q) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | +110 |
2. Argentina | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | +46 |
3. Japan | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | +14 |
4. Samoa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | +18 |
5. Chile | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -188 |
Remaining fixtures
England vs Samoa, 7 October, Lille
Japan vs Argentina, 8 October, Nantes
England are through to the quarter-finals after Japan’s win over Samoa and will progress as pool winners after the Brave Blossoms failed to secure a four-try bonus point in that clash. There is a battle to join England in the last eight – Argentina’s meeting with Japan in Nantes on the final day of pool play is a virtual quarter-final play-off.
There is, however, still a scenario in which Samoa could make the knockout rounds. The first job for the Pacific Islanders will be beating England by 29 points or more and a bonus point. An unlikely draw between Argentina and Japan with neither side scoring four tries would then be required, leaving all three nations on 11 competition points and Samoa to progress on points difference.
