Rotoworld Draft Notebook: Updated WR Rankings
As we inch towards draft week and workouts are in the rearview mirror, rankings are being finalized. I dropped an updated top 100 big board this week that really shows the depth of the corner, edge, running back and wide receiver classes.
Outside of the quarterbacks and Bijan Robinson, this class of skill-position players has the perception that it lacks excitement. I don't necessarily agree with that, especially factoring in the depth of the pass-catcher groups. While only two or three wide receivers will likely go in the first round, Day 2 will be littered with picks in this position group.
Let's dive into how deep that group is, a new market that was shaken up at the top and three up in dynasty.
Updated WR Rankings
1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
He is a high IQ receiver with lateral quickness, consistent separation ability and excellent adjustments to the ball. Smith-Njigba can be a quarterback's best friend, with a rare fearlessness over the middle of the field and the makeup of a true pro.
This is lofty, but he reminds me of Cooper Kupp in terms of how and where they excel. He's well worth a top 15 selection in this draft.
2. Jordan Addison, USC
When I watch Addison, one term comes to mind: polish. His routes are pro-ready at all three levels of the field and he has an understanding of how to sit against zone coverage. I love the different tempo he uses to separate and his hands were even better after transferring to USC.
He doesn't have the size or physical nature to dominate as a true No. 1 receiver, but could be a higher-end No. 2 in the NFL.
3. Quentin Johnston, TCU
In a wide receiver class lacking size in the early rounds, Johnston stands out. He has a 96th percentile wingspan and his flash plays to win the football are tremendous. The issue is he does not naturally adjust or catch the ball on a consistent basis.
His build up, vertical play speed and shake after the catch make him intriguing with a huge ceiling. Yet, his floor is low due to his unreliable hands and stretches of disappearing (he only eclipsed the 100-yard mark in four of his 14 games this season).
There's some boom or bust in his game, but he has the work ethic to overcome the latter. His play style reminds me of Martavis Bryant.
4. Cedric Tillman, Tennessee
If not for a costly ankle injury in 2022, Cedric Tillman would likely rank much higher across consensus wide receiver rankings.
He was fantastic in 2021 with huge performances against Alabama and Georgia. He has a big frame that he uses to shield defensive backs when making a play above the rim and he only dropped five passes on 145 targets over the last two seasons, per PFF. Considering the traffic he works in and out of, that is wildly impressive.
If he finds his 2021 form, Tillman is a Courtland Sutton-level prospect.
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5. Zay Flowers, Boston College
An undersized but lightning quick weapon, Flowers is a very difficult player for cornerbacks to mirror. He's a natural separator and can consistently create with the ball in his hands. Flowers has average hands and a very limited catch radius, but he should find plenty of success in the slot at the next level.
6. Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
A true burner, Hyatt put his name all over the draft radar when he caught a ridiculous five touchdowns against Alabama this year. Tennessee's offense wisely created free releases for him off the line of scrimmage and it was difficult for any defensive back to stay with him stride for stride.
It's possible to be an impactful one-trick pony at the next level if that skill is turning on the jets, commanding a safety's help over the top and threatening to hit the home run.
I didn't love that he came in at 176 pounds during the combine, especially for how upright of a runner he tends to be. However, playing weight concerns aside, he has a clearly defined role as a rookie. It's very easy to see him as a Will Fuller clone.
7. Josh Downs, North Carolina
Downs is a possession slot receiver with back-to-back 1,000 yard receiving seasons to his name. He is a quarterback's safety blanket and routinely carved up the middle of the field anywhere from the 0-20 yard range. Plus, his pass catching became much more reliable in 2022 from 2021.
No matter his size, Downs is a quick separator who plays with little fear. His 1.49 10-yard split (93rd percentile) is a good measure of his burst and acceleration. It's an added bonus that he can return punts, where he averaged over 13 yards per return in 2022. This is Sterling Shepard but with more upside.
8. Marvin Mims, Oklahoma
Mims can do a little bit of everything and the tape across three productive seasons proves it. He's hauled in 20 touchdowns during that stretch, won in contested situations and was a reliable chains mover who sliced up zone coverage.
On top of that, he just turned 21 in March and ran a 4.38 forty at the combine. He's bigger than Zay Flowers and Josh Downs. Mims is truly the most underappreciated wide receiver in this draft.
9. Tyler Scott, Cincinnati
While his 4.44 forty was somehow a disappointment in Indy, Scott's vertical play speed in pads is different. Per PFF, he had 20 explosive plays (20+ yards) this season and caught 11 of his 20 contested-catch opportunities.
His routes need a lot of fine tuning, but he brings two things to the table immediately: speed over the top and catch and run productivity. He might not be as fast, but his usage and style brings shades of Mecole Hardman.
10. Tank Dell, Houston
There aren't a lot of players in the country with the consistent production Dell had in 2022 after catching a touchdown in each of his final 10 games. He wins with top-end acceleration and is excellent transitioning from pass-catcher to open-field runner.
Despite his small stature at just 5'8 ⅜ and 165 pounds, Dell has the skill set and polish with shoulder fakes to win down the field. Houston did an excellent job putting him in motion and creating manufactured touches for him, but he could carve out a starting slot role at the next level.
11. Jonathan Mingo, Ole Miss
At 6'2 and 220 pounds with massive hands, Mingo has play strength not a lot of receivers in this class can match. He was moved all over the formation for Ole Miss, utilizing his big frame to get rolling downhill after the catch.
He doesn't run away from defensive backs with pure speed, but has crafty footwork to win with timing. Teams deploying a big slot or use their wide receivers tight to the formation will love Mingo's skill set.
12. Michael Wilson, Stanford
Wilson is a perfect "what could have been" prospect as his flashes are brilliant, but he was never consistently healthy the final three seasons of his college career.
He possesses a good blend of size with a thick, muscular frame and short-area explosiveness. There are no plays off for him - whether it's selling routes, running after the catch or even run blocking. He doesn't have long arms, but maximizes his catch radius when the ball is in the air to make a play.
Whether or not Wilson can hold up during the grind of an NFL season is a gigantic question mark, but there are no doubts he can play as an impactful outside wide receiver. He's one of the highest variance prospects in this draft.
13. A.T. Perry, Wake Forest
Perry is a big-bodied target with long arms and build-up speed. He lacks explosive acceleration and is delayed at times efficiently getting into his routes. He uses his frame to naturally adjust to off-target throws and on screen opportunities, he barrels through arm tackles.
Perry is a productive target with the size NFL teams dream of on the outside, but his concentration drops and lack of consistent separation severely limit his ceiling. His possession and red zone ability should help him stick to an NFL roster for a lengthy career.
14. Rashee Rice, SMU
A polarizing prospect, Rice was a target monster in 2022 hauling in 96 of his 156 looks. He has great leaping ability with hang time and aggression to win the football. On the other hand, his focus is a bit of a rollercoaster (as seen in the Cincinnati game). Drops routinely pop up on tape and he also fumbled three times this season.
There's a lot to like about Rice's tape as he'll throw his body around run blocking, win at all three levels of the field and stress defenders vertically. If he could dial that in every week, he'd easily be a top eight receiver in this class, but that proof doesn't exist yet.
15. Andrei Iosivas, Princeton
A unique prospect from both Princeton's football and track and field team, Iosivas has improved on the gridiron each year. He's always possessed the athletic traits (4.43 forty and 39” vertical) but he now carries 205 pounds on his 6'3 ⅛” frame.
Most importantly, Iosivas had a good showing during Senior Bowl week when the level of competition was turned up a notch. He can burn the opposition in coverage with pure speed, but the footwork and polish in his routes was better than expected.
Iosivas is a worthy project pick as a Day 3 receiver in this class. If he stays on the development trajectory he's been on the last few years, a team could find themselves with a D.J. Chark-lite at receiver.
First CB Drafted: Witherspoon vs. Gonzalez
Devon Witherspoon wasn't able to work out at the NFL Combine or the Illinois Pro Day due to a nagging hamstring, but he had a personal workout this week in front of scouts.
I had sources on the ground that timed him as low as 4.39 in the forty. Other notable reports had him in the low 4.4's. This was the final test for Witherspoon, who has phenomenal tape and a culture-changing attitude.
Why is this notable? The first corner to be taken market (via DraftKings) has a heavyweight fight taking place at the top. Witherspoon's odds are set at -120, while Christian Gonzalez's are at -110.
I've heard Detroit (pick No. 6), Las Vegas (pick No. 7) and Atlanta (No. 8) all connected to Witherspoon. I like the value at -120 and think those odds could start to trend towards -200 over these next few weeks.
Dynasty Outlook, Three Up
Eric Gray, RB, Oklahoma
Gray had to be patient for the chance at significant touches, but it paid off in his senior season at Oklahoma. He finished 2022 with over 1,300 yards on the ground and 11 touchdowns.
He has excellent make-you-miss ability in the open field, with burst and change of direction. It also helps that he hauled in over 100 receptions throughout his college career. Gray could get on the field early in a third-down role that utilizes his reliable hands as an outlet, while growing into a workhorse NFL runner over time.
Bryce Ford-Wheaton, WR, West Virginia
At 6'3 ½, 221 pounds with a 4.38 forty and 41” vertical, Ford-Wheaton is the classic size with speed Day 3 dart throw. He hauled in a whopping 18 of 34 contested-catch opportunities this season, per Pro Football Focus.
Ford-Wheaton needs to become a better separator in the intermediate range, but his red zone potential at the next level will make him an intriguing late-round selection.
BJ Ojulari, EDGE, LSU
Hello, IDP friends! Ojulari doesn't get the same attention as the top edge rushers in this class, but he has an advanced pass rush plan. He wins with burst, bend and overall speed. There were times he would spin out of stalemates.
The former LSU team captain just turned 21 this week and there's a lot to be excited about with his ceiling. I think he can develop into a double-digit sack edge rusher.
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