Rodgers Stalks Favre and Brady on Late-Career QB Track: Data Viz
The New York Jets are no strangers to trading for a high-profile Green Bay Packers quarterback in his late 30s after a prolonged offseason drama, during which that quarterback considered retirement. In 2008, they brought in 38-year-old Brett Favre, who had previously called it quits that year.
The Favre era began with promise, as New York started the season 8-3 and Favre was sixth in the NFL in passer rating among qualifying quarterbacks. The Jets finished just 9-7, however, and missed the playoffs after Favre threw for only two touchdowns and nine interceptions in the final five games. An MRI later revealed that he had played through a torn biceps tendon in his shoulder.
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Fifteen years later, the Jets have decided to try the experiment again by trading for four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers.
Favre turned 39 during his Jets season; Rodgers, who will turn 40 in December, is one year behind Favre’s schedule. For Jets fans concerned about going all-in on a player of Rodgers’ age, there are a few data points to either corroborate or dismiss those worries. Only six quarterbacks have ever thrown 250 passes in the NFL after their 40th birthday: Warren Moon, Vinny Testaverde, Favre, Matt Hasselbeck, Drew Brees and Tom Brady.
Despite the late-season struggles in his lone year with the Jets, Favre’s case is actually a relatively promising one. He signed with the Minnesota Vikings the next season, and as a 40-year-old, he threw for 33 touchdowns and a career-low seven interceptions, finishing third in the NFL with a career-high 7.61 ANY/A (adjusted net yards per pass attempt).
The Vikes finished the season with a 12-4 record, but Favre didn’t get a storybook ending. Minnesota lost the NFC Championship in overtime, following a Favre interception in opposing territory at the end of regulation, and missed the playoffs the following season.
Still, a late-career change of scenery has been beneficial for several quarterbacks. Tom Brady’s only season with an ANY/A below league average was 2019, his final year with the New England Patriots at age 42. The following season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he finished top 10 in the NFL in that same metric and won the Super Bowl.
Similarly, Philip Rivers’ final season was a relative success. In 2020, he led the Indianapolis Colts to an 11-5 record with above-average statistics after failing to make the playoffs with the Chargers the previous year. Back in 1997, Warren Moon made the Pro Bowl at age 41 in his first season with the Seattle Seahawks after an injury-riddled 1996 season with the Vikings.
On the whole, though, the NFL isn’t kind to aging quarterbacks. Of the 17 seasons since 1990 in which a quarterback aged 39 or older not named Tom Brady threw at least 200 passes for a single team, nine missed the playoffs, and the quarterback had a below average ANY/A 10 times.
One of those unsuccessful seasons was Rodgers’ 2022 campaign. His 5.95 ANY/A was just shy of league average, as he struggled to find chemistry with a receiving corps left depleted by the departure of his top target, Davante Adams. He threw nearly as many interceptions (12) as he had in his previous four seasons combined (15).
The good news for Rodgers is that he’s joining a Jets team whose defense allowed the fourth fewest yards and points in the league last year. Quarterbacks with strong support don’t necessarily need to be elite, or young, or even good, to win. Look no further than Peyton Manning, who at age 39 was statistically one of the worst passers in the league for the 2015 Broncos, but was carried by the NFL’s top defense to a Super Bowl win before riding off into the sunset.
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